El Niño is done; Haiti at risk of heavy rains next week; oil spill update
El Niño rapidly weakened during late April and early May, with sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling a significant 0.65°C in just one month. Temperatures in the region are now in the "neutral" range, just 0.18°C above average, and well below the 0.5°C threshold to be considered an El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer. This is what happened during the last strong El Niño event, in 1998--El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. Six of the sixteen El Niño models (updated as of April 15) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season, and I expect more models will jump on the La Niña bandwagon when the May data updates later this week. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a significantly above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Over the full 160-year period we have records of Atlantic hurricanes, La Niña years have typically had more hurricanes, and more strong hurricanes, compared to neutral years. However, since 1995, there hasn't been any difference between neutral and La Niña years in terms of hurricane activity. La Niña conditions typically cause cool and wet conditions over the Caribbean in summer, but do not have much of an impact on U.S. temperatures or precipitation.
Figure 1. Oil spill edge over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, May 19, as seen from NASA's M ODIS instrument. Note that a band of cumulus clouds formed along the edge of the oil spill. I theorize this is because the low level wind flow out of the southeast moves faster over the oil, since the oil suppresses wave action. As the winds cross the spill boundary into rougher, clean water, they slow down, forcing the air to pile up and create updrafts that then spawn cumulus clouds. See my post on what oil might do to a hurricane for more information on how oil reduces wave action.
Oil spill update
Clouds over the Gulf of Mexico have again foiled satellite imaging of the extent of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, though through breaks in the clouds it appears that a significant amount of the oil that was pulled southwards towards the Loop Current is now caught in a counter-clockwise rotating eddy just to the north of the Loop Current. However, some oil has escaped this eddy and is on its way south towards the Florida Keys. According to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA, the tongue of oil flowing southwards has at most "light" concentrations. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about what the oil may do to the fragile Keys ecosystem. See my post yesterday for answers to many of the common questions I get about the spill.
Oil spill resources
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU
Figure 2. Precipitation forecast from today's 8am EDT run of the NAVY NOGAPS model, valid 7 days from now. Precipitation amounts in excess of 70 mm (2.8") in 12 hours are predicted over Haiti, due to a tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean. Image credit: U.S. Navy.
Potential serious rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the GFS and NOGAPS models over the past few days have consistently been predicting an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 5 - 7 days from now, and I expect that a tropical disturbance with heavy rains will develop in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the NOGAPS model shows heavy rains in excess of six inches impacting Haiti Wednesday through Thursday of next week. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing a serious emergency with high loss of life in earthquake-shattered Haiti, and all interests in that nation should closely monitor the situation over the coming week. It is too early to speculate on the possibility of the disturbance becoming a tropical depression. The wunderblogs of StormW and Weather456, who are now featured bloggers for the coming hurricane season, have more information on this potential development, plus the possible development of a subtropical storm between Florida and Bermuda next week.
Major severe weather outbreak over Oklahoma expected tonight
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put much of Oklahoma in its High Risk region for severe weather today, warning that "The setup appears most favorable for large, relatively slow moving intense storms with large hail. A couple strong tornadoes also may occur."
I'll be back with a new post Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The oil reaches South Pass
Added by Michael DeMocker, The Times-Picayune on May 19, 2010 at 2:48 PM
MICHAEL DeMOCKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Oil coats the base of marsh grass at South Pass on Tuesday, May 18, 2010.
Tags: oil spill gulf of mexico 2010
Indeed, I honestly hope the Haiti storm ends up being nothing. The last thing they need is a huge rain making system.
By David Hammer, The Times-Picayune
May 19, 2010, 10:30PM
BP hired a top oilfield service company to test the strength of cement linings on the Deepwater Horizon's well, but sent the firm's workers home 11 hours before the rig exploded April 20 without performing a final check that a top cementing company executive called "the only test that can really determine the actual effectiveness" of the well's seal.
A spokesman for the testing firm, Schlumberger, said BP had a Schlumberger team and equipment for sending acoustic testing lines down the well "on standby" from April 18 to April 20. But BP never asked the Schlumberger crew to perform the acoustic test and sent its members back to Louisiana on a regularly scheduled helicopter flight at 11 a.m., Schlumberger spokesman Stephen T. Harris said.
At a few minutes before 10 p.m., a belch of natural gas shot out of the well, up a riser pipe to the rig above, igniting massive explosions, killing 11 crewmembers and sending millions of gallons of crude oil into the Gulf. The rig's owner, Transocean, blames failed cement seals, installed by Halliburton, for the disastrous blowout.
Tests done, and not done
tim_probert.JPGCarolyn Kaster/The Associated PressTim Probert of Halliburton
But while politicians and media have focused on the finger-pointing by BP, Transocean and Halliburton executives in congressional hearings over the past 10 days, Halliburton's representative at those hearings, Tim Probert, has quietly provided some clues about what might have gone wrong.
First, he went into detail in two committee hearings May 11 about the tests that were done to check his company's cement job -- called positive and negative pressure tests -- and a third test that BP never asked for. That test is called a "cement bond log," which records data collected from wires run down the well to measure sounds that indicate whether there are any weaknesses or spaces in the cement.
Probert told a Senate committee last week that the cement bond log is "the only test that can really determine the actual effectiveness of the bond between the cement sheets, the formation and the casing itself."
Gregory McCormack, director of the Petroleum Extension Service at the University of Texas, called the cement bond log the "gold standard" of cement tests. It records detailed, 360-degree representations of the well and can show where the cement isn't adhering fully to the casing and where there may be paths for gas or oil to get into the hole.
Schlumberger's Harris said the contractor was ready to do any such wireline tests, but was never directed to do so. The team had finished doing tests on the subsea layers of earth being drilled five days earlier and hadn't done any work since, Harris said.
In fact, Harris said there was no time to get the company's wireline testing equipment off the rig before it exploded.
According to internal BP and Transocean documents released to the public by a U.S. House committee, the rig crew made sure a plug placed in the bottom of the well was set properly and then conducted the positive and negative pressure tests. Those measure the integrity of the well casing and of various seals placed between different lengths of pipe to close off spaces that run up the sides of the well.
According to Probert, government regulators at the Minerals Management Service don't require a well owner like BP to order a cement bond log unless it feels uncertain about any of the earlier tests. It's not clear what the results of the positive and negative pressure tests were.
Spaces between pipes not closed off
Probert also presented Congress with a schematic of BP's cementing plan, which he repeatedly said his firm followed to a T. Although he never mentioned it in his written or verbal testimony, the drawing Probert attached to his prepared testimony May 11 shows what drilling experts say is a key design flaw that could easily have allowed a blast of natural gas to shoot to the surface undetected and destroy the rig before the crew of 126 knew what hit them.
First, he went into detail in two committee hearings May 11 about the tests that were done to check his company's cement job -- called positive and negative pressure tests -- and a third test that BP never asked for. That test is called a "cement bond log," which records data collected from wires run down the well to measure sounds that indicate whether there are any weaknesses or spaces in the cement.
Probert told a Senate committee last week that the cement bond log is "the only test that can really determine the actual effectiveness of the bond between the cement sheets, the formation and the casing itself."
Gregory McCormack, director of the Petroleum Extension Service at the University of Texas, called the cement bond log the "gold standard" of cement tests. It records detailed, 360-degree representations of the well and can show where the cement isn't adhering fully to the casing and where there may be paths for gas or oil to get into the hole.
Schlumberger's Harris said the contractor was ready to do any such wireline tests, but was never directed to do so. The team had finished doing tests on the subsea layers of earth being drilled five days earlier and hadn't done any work since, Harris said.
ok so why couldn't this be from the spill? tracking of the oil spill has only been at the surface correct? isn't there a bunch of oil under the surface that's not being tracked as well?
NOAA outlooks delayed till next week 27 of may and will be released in wash.
sw carb system forms starting sunday tracks ne ward towards east haiti drenching rains poss first tropical system of season
large anticyclone moving eastward from the EPAC, look for it to cross into the West Caribbean over the next day or two
also another weaker anticyclone is near panama and could move north
BP Acquiesces to Markey’s Request, Will Release Video Stream Tonight to Chairman
May 19, 2010 – Following a demand from Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) for a live feed of the BP oil spill to be made publicly available on the web, BP said they would release the feed and it will be shown on Rep. Markey’s committee website at www.globalwarming.house.gov. The release of the live link to Rep. Markey is expected tonight.
“This may be BP’s footage, but it’s America’s ocean. Now anyone will be able to see the real-time effects the BP spill is having on our ocean,” said Rep. Markey, who conducted a briefing today with independent scientists where he reiterated the call for a video feed. “This footage will aid analysis by independent scientists blocked by BP from coming to see the spill.”
Markey sent letters earlier today to BP America’s CEO Lamar McKay asking for the footage to be made public on BP’s website. If BP could not host the footage, Rep. Markey offered to host it on his website free of charge.
“BP is going to have to pay for the cleanup of this spill and the long-term damage. Hosting this video on our website is the only freebie they’re going to get,” Rep. Markey said.
The letter sent to McKay today can be found here.
Rep. Markey has frequently queried BP for more information on the exact size of the spill and on their refusal to engage with outside scientists. Independent scientists have examined video, satellite photos and other aspects of the spill and determined that it may be much bigger than estimated. Today at a briefing Rep. Markey held in his Energy and Environment Subcommittee, independent scientists from Purdue University and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution said that the estimate of a 5,000 barrel per day leak was an underestimation of the flow. The scientists said with more data, they could better calculate the flow of oil from the sea floor.
"This is 4th grade math. We know the numerator here—the couple thousand barrels a day BP is siphoning out of the sunken pipe. But we still don’t know the denominator," said Rep. Markey. "BP is capturing a fraction of the oil, but they don’t know what that fraction is. By releasing this video, we’ve taken the first step towards allowing better access to the information BP has about this spill."
Anyway it looks like I may have a reason to come out of vacation early but im not sure if it'll be the caribbean storm or the subtropical storm. The latest run of the GFS coming in looks like we may have a sloppy Subtropical storm near the southeast US coast early to mid next week.
Arctic Drilling Proposal Advanced Amid Concern a spill or blow out couldn't be contained or cleaned up in those conditions.
156 hours
05/19/10 07:16 PM | AP
PHOENIX An Arizona utility regulator suggests there could be payback for the Los Angeles City Council's vote to boycott Arizona businesses because of the state's new law targeting illegal immigration.
Arizona Corporation Commission member Gary Pierce responded to the council's vote by sending a letter Tuesday to Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (vee-ah-reye-GOH'-sah). It cites the mayor's support for the boycott and says he would "be happy to encourage Arizona utilities" to renegotiate power agreements that now send electricity to the California city.
Pierce concludes his letter by saying that people of goodwill can disagree over the Arizona law's merits but that a boycott of Arizona "is not a message sent in goodwill."
___
Wow! Look at all those H's on the Map. Whatever develops (tropical/subtropical) won't be in any hurry too shoot off to the NE.
Looks like occluded becoming completely subtropical in that image but thats to far out to say for sure.
I'm an organic chemist. The video is complete garbage. Nothing will leak from the batteries under those conditions. While technically water electrolysis can start at 1.24V, Higher voltage is necessary for much of anything to occur. The batteries are only 1.5V. It is unlikely that there are enough electrolytes in tap water to conduct adequate electricity for this process. If there were, you would see a bright orange flame... the color that sodium ions, the one of the most abundant electrolytes, would give off. (and the color you normally associate with flames.) Even if it DID occur, the batteries would only produce enough hydrogen for a few seconds of flame, even after being fully discharged. Additionally, the hydrogen would drift away. Even if it didn't, the oxygen would preferentially be concentrated in the glass. This would create an explosion on lighting it. Also, the cotton that he put over the glass would have burst into flame explosively. Even if he managed to keep just hydrogen there, it would have erupted into a fireball when it was lit.
Everything I see is consistent with him lighting ethanol in the glass. The flame looks like the typical flame you see on an alcohol burner... barely any color, mostly blue, with a little orange at the tips. Plus, alcohol looks just like water.
Slatington Mountain, Base Reflectivity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Kinda cold if ya ask me
Updated: 6:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Wednesday Night
Overcast. Low: -104 F . Wind SW 13 mph . Windchill: -144 F .
Thursday
Overcast. High: -92 F . Wind South 11 mph . Windchill: -140 F .
Looks like that system could be what helps spark the system in the Bahamas
I think everyone is rushing this development thing.....Not sure anything will really come together yet as Shear seems to be still strong in most places next week yet.
Thank you..I have played with Browns gas in the past ..but I must say I did have to try this just the same...LOL
Hope that's enough for my dad
Shear is decreasing as we speak, especially in the Western Caribbean where an anticyclone is coming over from the EPAC
Talking about researchers in Antarctica...
"Traditions are fun ways to while away the hours while in Antarctica. One of the most infamous traditions is the introduction into the “300 Club”. In order to do this, a day is required where the temperature is at least 100 degrees below zero. The sauna is brought up to over 200 degrees. They then sprint from the 200 degree sauna into the minus 100 degree air and back again."
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