First Atlantic Invest, 90L is here; oil now 350 miles west of Key West
An extratropical low pressure system has developed a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas today, and has been designated as the first "Invest" of the year (90L) by the National Hurricane Center. (For those of you who were wondering, a discussion of what an "Invest" is can be found in the Tropical Cyclone FAQ). This low has the potential to develop into the season's first named storm--Alex--and could be a threat to the Southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. Wind shear is currently 40 knots over the low, and the high shear ripped apart a low level circulation that was attempting to form this morning. Water vapor loops show a large amount of dry, continental air exists to the west of the storm, and this dry air will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical storm. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south early next week. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The models are divided on whether the storm will eventually make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast 5 - 7 days from now, and it is too early to offer odds on this occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to northeasterly winds over the oil spill region Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil southwards towards the Loop Current. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more detailed discussions of the potential development of 90L.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this afternoon.
Potential heavy rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the NOGAPS model, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF and GFS models, continue to predict an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, leading to development of a tropical disturbance with heavy rains in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the potential exists for heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in the Wednesday - Thursday time frame next week. The models are less enthusiastic about the prospects for tropical development than they were in yesterday's runs, and it currently appears that high levels of wind shear will make formation of a tropical depression improbable.
Oil spill continues to impact Louisiana shores
Light southeast to east winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, resulting in potential oiling of Louisiana shorelines from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These winds may be creating strong enough surface currents that the flow of oil southwards towards the Loop Current may be significantly reduced or shut off over the next few days, as suggested by the latest SAR satellite imagery (Figure 2). However, winds will shift to offshore out of the north or northeast by Tuesday, due to counter-clockwise flow of air around the approaching 90L storm. If 90L becomes strong and lingers off the Southeast U.S. coast for several days, a significant amount of oil could get pumped into the Loop Current next week.
Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 11:53pm EDT May 20, 2010, by the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. The plume of oil being drawn south towards the Loop Current appears truncated, and very little oil may be flowing south. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.
Oil now 350 miles due west of Key West
Satellite imagery from today's 12:15pm EDT pass of NASA's Terra satellite (Figure 3) shows that a narrow ribbon of oil is caught in the Loop Current. The oil has moved south and then southwest, and the leading edge of the oil is now about 350 miles due west of Key West, Florida. The oil is substantial enough to modify the cumulus clouds in the Gulf of Mexico, though NOAA characterizes this portion of the oil spill as "numerous light sheens with some emulsified patties and streams." The oil is now headed away from the Keys towards a major kink in the Loop Current. By Saturday, the oil should double back towards the Keys in a eastward flowing branch of the Loop Current, and will likely pass just south of Key West by Tuesday. However, this is not a sure thing. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. This event could occur today or tomorrow, in which case the ribbon of southwestward-moving oil would turn due west and then north, eventually winding up back near the site of the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Even if a Loop Current Eddy forms today, I still expect we will see some oil make the turn eastward and flow past the Florida Keys by Wednesday.
Figure 3. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument for 12:15pm EDT May 21, 2010. I've enhanced the region along the eastern boundary of the Loop Current showing the south and southwestward moving ribbon of oil. Note that the oil is substantial enough to be affecting the low level cumulus clouds along portions of the ribbon of oil. The oil has reached the latitude of the Florida Keys.
Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll be back with a new post Saturday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index
Totally ludicrous. But the technical issues are enormous, and there are no precedents.
I hope this is a joke 456, your better than to assume this, Patrap has been posting non-stop since this whole sham began.
lol no sweet, i only skimmed through the updates. i'm human so my attention can only go so much.
Don't see neither developing into anything of any consequence. Those strong westerlies aren't gonna let up anytime soon.
lol I have seen that post 3 times today. I already answered it on page 3.
12Z CMC.
No Probs.
It has been an incredible tale ...
Ditto that.
Thanks for the info (you too Ossgss)... That is some nasty stuff... (at least Corexit is)
If Corexit is the cure then:
I think the cure is worse than the problem.
On Edit: Look at the MSDS and Hazmat guidelines for the makeup... FULL Chemsuits and SCBA's and we are DUMPING it into our FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN...
Looks similar to CMC/GFS w/90L.
hope they find a fix soon
Live video link from the ROV monitoring the damaged riser
DAMAGE CLAIM (800) 440-0858
Seems like I've said that before though.
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE EXTREME W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH TUE. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC
SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
90L is fully aware that many on here want something to track with a name and is doing its best to give you that sometime in the near future
90L will be back with a full briefing tonight and will be briefing all of you 2 times a day for the foreseeable future.
Signed Agent of 90L
* CONTACT: WILDLIFE (866) 557-1401
* OIL ON LAND / BOOM ISSUES (866) 448-5816
* TECH/SUGGESTIONS (281) 366-5511
* DAMAGE CLAIM (800) 440-0858
DATE: May 21, 2010 20:02:10 CST
Unified Area Command announces it will not use hair boom in its Deepwater Horizon/BP response efforts
Key contact numbers
* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866) 448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401
Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center
Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240
ROBERT, La. – The Unified Area Command for the Deepwater Horizon/BP Response announces it will not use hair boom in its response efforts.
While this suggestion was submitted to BP as an alternative method for containing and recovering the oil spill, it was not deemed feasible after a technical evaluation.
In a February 2010 side-by-side field test conducted during an oil spill in Texas, commercial sorbent boom absorbed more oil and much less water than hair boom, making it the better operational choice.
“Our priority when cleaning up an oil spill is to find the most efficient and expedient way to remove the oil from the affected area while causing no additional damage. One problem with the hair boom is that it became water-logged and sank within a short period of time,” said Charlie Henry, NOAA’s Scientific Support Coordinator in Robert, La.
Commercial sorbent boom is readily available and scientifically designed and tested for oil containment and absorption on the water. Additionally, response teams are familiar with and properly trained to safely deploy, maintain, recover, and dispose commercial sorbent boom.
Individuals and organizations are asked to discontinue the collection of hair for the hair boom.
We appreciate the overwhelming response from the American and Canadian people who want to help in the response to this spill. Please continue to send suggestions for alternate cleanup solutions. All proposals are reviewed by technical experts for their feasibility and proof of application. Among those recommendations submitted was the successful subsea dispersion process that is now helping break up oil before it reaches the surface.
We encourage the public to continue volunteering to help with this response. People interested in volunteering can call 866-448-5816.
One can see the other ROV maneuvering at times to reposition the 4 inch extraction tube line if you watch awhile.
Yes, the GFDL kills it, the HWRF almost kills it, then shows a weak low hitting NC.
Do you work for BP?
90L is doing what it should.
This is not tropical in nature. Everything we know about the processes of tropical cyclogenesis cannot be applied here or we will end up making inaccurate assumptions.
We have to apply nontropical and hybrid techniques here. 90L has not deviated from these processes. In fact, 90L is doing what it should.
It looks bad if you are thinking TCs. It looks organize if you are thinking non tropical or hybrid.
So in other words 90L is organized enough non tropically.
That's all very well.!!
But I am talking to my Lawyer right now.
Claims will include, but are not limited to--
Disapointment based on Optimism.
Lack of sleep resulting in a distinct feeling of Blah.
Unnessasary consumption of beer.
Etc.
Are u serious?
No..I dont work for BP.
I worked for Chevron in the mid 90's
impatience maybe?
We will take that into advisement and send appropriate compensation (more beer)
It has a lot to do with the fact we keep forgetting 90L is not tropical. Read post 928. This is not an overnight process.
downcaster
May 22, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across Jamaica and the central Caribbean.
Comment…
The Trough across Jamaica is expected to intensify
across the central Caribbean then move eastward slowly.
TODAY'S FORECAST
This Morning… Isolated showers over northern parishes,
mostly cloudy elsewhere.
This Afternoon… Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm across most places.
Tonight… Partly cloudy.
3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Sun-Tues… Expect periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms,
especially during the afternoon.
Regionally… The Tropical Waves will continue to migrating
across the southern Caribbean. Area of Low Pressure over
the Bahamas enhancing the Trough over Jamaica.
pef
Where do you get those models?
Everything is under control.
We are dealing with it.
Go back to sleep.
Zing!
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal looks at oil that got past booms as he tours a land bridge built by the Louisiana National Guard to hold back oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in Grand Isle, La., Friday, May 21, 2010. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Well done TAZ!!
First "RIP" of the season LOL
LOL.
We are gathered here today...to honor an invest that TAZ has RIP-ed. It was a little early....an early bloomer...but has faded into RIP land according to TAZ.
***5-22-10***
$$$
You seem to be very connected to the scene... Although I was half joking - you do post a rather large graphic of the BP LOGO though...
NOAA to Issue 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
"What: Press conference announcing NOAA%u2019s 2010 Atlantic hurricane season outlook
When: Thursday, May 27, 10am ET
Where: National Press Club - 13th Floor; Murrow Room
529 14th St. NW
Washington, DC 20045"
and then this, which some of you have probably viewed ???
Think-Tank Says Trained Chimp Can Predict Hurricanes Better Than NOAA -- And Puts it to the Test
Viewing: 901 - 951
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index