Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting pottery:
If 90E gets into the west atl, does it become 91L?

Yup.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
On a side note we got rocked on the coast today. I wish I had my camera. The clouds were awesome. Looked like tidal waves. 2 inch hail reported by the border also. Turbulence had to be real high. About time the sea breeze fired up. two massive outflows converged together over LA also.

Those same outflow boundaries generated 35 kt wind gusts in my area, along some of the most intense cloud-to-ground lightning I've seen in quite awhile. We also, I would estimate, received around a half an inch of rain within just 30 minutes. The parking lot at Wal Mart in Gonzales was flooded almost up to the ankles.

Quoting FIU2010:
a question for either 456 or levi, or for both of them. alright, gentlemen, what do those low pressure anomalies that I see over the southeast and the carib. during the months of july, aug. and sept mean for us? Above all, why do i see the lowest pressure readings over the state of florida, what does that mean for floridians during this year's hurricane season, above all, for the peak months? Thanks, guys.

The lowest pressures are not centered over Florida on most of the seasonal forecasts...just thought I'd point that out lol.

The axis of below-normal pressures forecasted over the Caribbean, Bahamas, and Gulf of Mexico foretell an above-average hurricane season, as both myself and 456 have indicated in our hurricane outlooks this year, found on our respective blogs.

The lower pressures, combined with higher pressures to both the north and south, act to focus convergence over the southwest Atlantic basin, increasing precipitation and heat buildup. The lower pressures over the Caribbean combined with higher than normal pressures over Columbia act to weaken the Columbian heat low, which results in slower easterly trade winds across the Caribbean. This allows more air to pile up in the western Caribbean, further increasing convergence and allowing tropical waves/disturbances to amplify and develop.

This is a graphic from my hurricane season outlook illustrating these points.

Quoting FIU2010:



Yes, that was exactly what i was making reference to, thank you so much. so i guess that doesn't spell out good news for us, now, does it? :(. that would also allow for rapid intensification of storms?

If the atmospheric and thermodynamic environment are favorable, possibly.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like 99% of the ATCF models for 90E do not take it into the Caribbean.

Yea I dont think its 90E itself that gets into the Caribbean, but a piece of energy from it.

It is only one model run, for all we know the next run they will all switch back to the Caribbean again

I havent looked at any weather today...way to busy at work. Trying to catch up on all the fun. Looks like I missed how to ignore myself. Maybe that is a good thing from time to time.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like 99% of the ATCF models for 90E do not take it into the Caribbean.

True. But you can't trust the first few model runs on an invest, wait another 18 hours or so and then pay attention to them.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup.

Thanks. Very stupid system....

.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


Yea I dont think its 90E itself that gets into the Caribbean, but a piece of energy from it.

It is only one model run, for all we know the next run they will all switch back to the Caribbean again

True.

An area of vort spins off the main circulation, but these runs dont even bring it over CA to complete that process.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I had to do it tazmanian :)

90L is actually about 180 miles closer than it was 24 hours ago, and our pressure in the past 24 hours has fallen. From 1014.7 mb to 1014.5 mb. I need to get the spare oxygen tanks.

dont forget your plywood lol

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Did the Gulf stream separate lol? Take a look at this graph:

Giant Eddy broke off, right before the oil moved towards the keys. An act of god perhaps? (though I'm not trying to start a religious debate on the blog)

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


True.

An area of vort spins off the main circulation, but these runs dont even bring it over CA.

The GFS 18z shows that solution. It has the stronger 90E in the EPAC while a piece of its energy is just east of Belize.

GFS 18z 90 Hours.

Quoting winter123:

Giant Eddy broke off, right before the oil moved towards the keys. An act of god perhaps? (though I'm not trying to start a religious debate on the blog)

Wow.

Be back in a bit.

Good evening all
Looks like A big rain event is upon us tonight here in Trinidad.Pottery you see what coming our way?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow.

Kinda cool actually, a giant whirlpool. Any oil that was going to travel down the loop current and up the eastern coast is now stuck in that.


Can someone post the sea surface temperature forecast/animation for the gulf and gulf stream?

Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hey Everyone...Guess What?

STOP SAYING 90L IS DEAD!!!

Its dead dude. It really is. The first step to a problem is admitting there is a problem. This one is not coming back (hard to come back when it never really started I guess).

Next thing we know people will put Dr M on ignore and then try to post in his blog lol

Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hey Everyone...Guess What?

STOP SAYING 90L IS DEAD!!!

Oh yea and if you disagree, I respect your opinion but you shouldnt tell me to stop expressing mine.

Quoting DDR:
Good evening all
Looks like A big rain event is upon us tonight here in Trinidad.Pottery you see what coming our way?

Sure did! And I was outside earlier looking at that mountain of cloud in the east and south. Lit by the moon.
Moon is gone now though, and I just had another 1/2" of rain.
1" today so far.

GEFS

Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


I'm not convinced quite yet. Give it until tomorrow afternoon.

I never gave it a chance so I am not waiting until tomorrow haha. I have said this is not going to happen for over a week. I said it would get close, be a nice wind and rain event but would not reach sub trop status. I am not changing my mind this late in the game :)

Just took a look outside again.
Moon is shining bright through a hole in the clouds. Loads of black sky to the east.
Rains are a-commin'.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Did the Gulf stream separate lol? Take a look at this graph:

The Loop current shed the northern Eddy..happens a few times annually.

Quoting Hurricanes101:
Next thing we know people will put Dr M on ignore and then try to post in his blog lol

Hmm...
Nah

Any bets on whether or not the space shuttle can land in Florida tomorrow with 90L hovering just off shore?

They said on NPR today that the shuttle astronauts believe they can find a clear window tomorrow to land in Florida. I'd rather see a Texas landing myself. NASA can then hurry up and dismantle the space shuttle and sell it for parts before the FED finds out. Due to recent budget cuts, that lawn sale of spare shuttle parts and mementos might help NASA finance the last two shuttle missions before calling it quits.

1/2 inch here throughout the day,i'm expecting no less than another 2 inches by morning.I got 210mm for the month so far and it just started raining with some gusty winds.

Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hey Everyone...Guess What?

STOP SAYING 90L IS DEAD!!!

90L is dead



hey look i said it



and yes its ture 90L had a good fight but lost and now we need too dig up a garve and put 90l too rest RIP

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I never gave it a chance so I am not waiting until tomorrow haha. I have said this is not going to happen for over a week. I said it would get close, be a nice wind and rain event but would not reach sub trop status. I am not changing my mind this late in the game :)

I'll say that I have been exceedingly pessimistic from the outset about it's chances, myself.

There you go.
Set off a nuclear bomb in the Gulf.
The Russians aren't exactly known for environmental conscientiousness.

Quoting Drakoen:

I dont like that one outlier just east of the Yuc into the Gulf haha.

Quoting Acemmett90:

that would be an =


& A
[IMG]http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u259/jayaja/JesusFacepalm.jpg[/IMG]

Not sure how to take that, given that Bp and friends are in the process of redefining the phrase "Epic Fail"...

Quoting Acemmett90:

that would be an =


& A

Id remove that picture.

I feel the ban hammer coming down soon.

90L's Impacts tonight



New Hanover
Forecasts for North Carolina %u2014 Return to U.S. Severe Weather
Current Severe Weather


Coastal Hazard Statement

Statement as of 8:16 PM EDT on May 25, 2010

... Rip current risk remains in effect from 7 am EDT Wednesday
through Wednesday evening...

Long duration easterly fetch around a low pressure in the western
Atlantic Ocean will continue the high amplitude long period swell.
This swell... in combination with the approach of the full
moon... will continue a high risk for strong rip currents through
Wednesday evening. All local beaches... from Surf City North
Carolina... south to Cape Romain South Carolina... will likely
experience rough surf and life threatening rip currents. The most
dangerous time for rip currents will be in a two hour window
either side of low tide... which will occur around 1 PM on
Wednesday. Anyone venturing to the beach should stay out of the
water.

Rip currents are strong narrow channels of water that flow away
from the beach. If you become caught in a rip current... remember
to remain calm. Try to swim on a course that takes you down the
beach. Once you get away from the rip... begin to swim back to
shore. Do not attempt to swim directly against the rip. It can
exhaust or even kill the strongest swimmer.

Rip currents can become life threatening to anyone who enters the
surf. Heed the advice of local lifeguards and pay attention to
posted flags and signs.

Quoting MohammadMet:
Some people's take on 90L

LOL thats Brilliant!