Little change to 90L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:33 GMT le 25 mai 2010

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The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained E winds of 31 mph, gusting to 36 mph this morning. Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of the island, and seas are running 10 - 15 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L and the Central American disturbance this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 90L, and the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are near 24°C today and will remain in the 23 - 24°C range the next two days. These relatively cool SSTs have hampered formation of much heavy thunderstorm activity, as has the presence of a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops .

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala. The disturbance will move inland over Central America during the last half of the week, potentially bringing flooding rains to portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean late this week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tornadoes rip through the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center logged 17 reports of tornadoes yesterday, with twisters reported in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. In addition, there were 158 hail reports and 126 reports of damaging winds. Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries reported, and it was a good day for the Vortex2 tornado field research project. Former wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up with a very picturesque tornado near Faith, South Dakota, and has posted some spectacular video of the tornado.


Figure 2. Large tornado near Faith, South Dakota on May 24, 2010 just misses hitting a church. Image credit: Mike Theiss, ultimatechase.com. Check out his spectacular video of the tornado.

I'll be back later today to discuss how a hurricane might affect the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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any potential for the central caribbean flair up of storms?http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Don't know how strong this will be later this weekend but the trend north toward FL is due to a ULL over the FL Panhandle. This will in effect draw that tropical moisture into the ULL feature. This all means a stormy weekend/holiday across Florida.


Im sorry but Im having problems following you. What are you looking at that showing there will be a landfall in fla. What's coming?
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ESL by LSU Oil Spill Imagery
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Quoting Levi32:


Oh really...didn't know that. I wondered. The others are in 12-hour increments though.


Link to the raw data. The BAMs go out to 168 hours.
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Truecolor image of Oil Slick, May 25, 2010
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Quoting cg2916:
What does everyone think the odds are for 90L to still form?


90L? That dog?

Less than zero percent.
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Quoting Levi32:


Oh idk....are you sure?

Umbrella was a DOD sponsored weapons effects test for a medium depth underwater explosion. A Mk-7 bomb was used for the test (30 inches in diameter, 54 inches long, device weight 825 lb.) in a heavy pressure vessel (total weight 7000 lb.). Very similar to the Wahoo device. The device was detonated on the lagoon bottom NNE of Mut (Henry) Island. An underwater crater 3000 feet across and 20 feet deep was produced.





I love that video!

So, the lagoon was 5,000 feet deep, huh? Probably not.

A closer comparison to actual conditions would be the test they did off of San Diego to kill submarines.

I like that video alot, too.
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90L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
What does everyone think the odds are for 90L to still form?
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NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he got to wear hes helmet with the red flashin light on top too


I've gotta share something with you I thought was hilarious!

Last week on Tru-TV's "World's Dumbest Drivers," the #3 dumbest driver was none other than Reed Timmer! :D

It was awesome. My wife and I were watching the show and the camera in the car got a shot of the driver. "That's Reed!" she said pointing.

I clicked back some seconds on the DVR...and sure enough...it was Reed Timmer...now branded as one of the "World's Dumbest Drivers!"

Oh...they mocked him, but good! :D
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


On the SFWMD plots for the BAMs those are 24 hour points.


Oh really...didn't know that. I wondered. The others are in 12-hour increments though.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
At one time(yesterday), one of the Euro ensembles tried to cut-off a low over the Southeast U.S. that would sit there for days on end starting on the Memorial Day Weekend. Giving us a soaker. However, that's unlikely to be the case as of now.

But I wouldn't doubt if it picks up on it again but much further east over the Western Atlantic idk. Since models are say this'll be a powerful late season cold front(with a nice Memorial Day if I might add).
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Quoting Levi32:


Correct.



On the SFWMD plots for the BAMs those are 24 hour points.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


LOL! At a mile deep, the most you'll see on the surface is a bubbly fizzy.


Oh idk....are you sure?

Umbrella was a DOD sponsored weapons effects test for a medium depth underwater explosion. A Mk-7 bomb was used for the test (30 inches in diameter, 54 inches long, device weight 825 lb.) in a heavy pressure vessel (total weight 7000 lb.). Very similar to the Wahoo device. The device was detonated on the lagoon bottom NNE of Mut (Henry) Island. An underwater crater 3000 feet across and 20 feet deep was produced.



Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
this is all bearing in mind the gulf is nowhere near how it used to be. 50 years ago you could walk out anywhere and pick up a five gallon bucket of scallops so old and big they had moss growing on them and you could sit on the dunes and listen to the rare endangered beach mice scritchin around. The average mullet was two feet long. fiddler crabs were so thick on the bays and bayous they were like a carpet on the beach... its like in nola, the wetlands were hurt bad to begin with.
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Quoting kingy:
if they nuke it I want cyclone oz to surf the thermonuclear wave on live webcam
he got to wear hes helmet with the red flashin light on top too
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Quoting Levi32:


Correct.




Maybe a 3 landfall storm. Models have been trending closer and closer to the Peninsula.
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Quoting kingy:
if they nuke it I want cyclone oz to surf the thermonuclear wave on live webcam


LOL! At a mile deep, the most you'll see on the surface is a bubbly fizzy.
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590. kingy
if they nuke it I want cyclone oz to surf the thermonuclear wave on live webcam
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Hi, y'all.

The area of western Guatemala and southern Chiapas, Mexico that the models show 90E crossing is extremely mountainous. If the disturbance is highly developed before tracking across that landmass it will be torn to shreds.
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Quoting mikatnight:
Meaningless Trivia:
Nearly 25% of all retired names are from years ending in 5 (total of 17 storms).
All but one of those years had a major storm hit Florida.
Every year ending in 0 or 5 has had at least one retired storm.
No (retired) storm has ever hit Florida in years ending in 1, 3, or 7.

To me that has a lot of meaning at least based on climatology.
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Quoting mikatnight:
Meaningless Trivia:
Nearly 25% of all retired names are from years ending in 5 (total of 17 storms).
All but one of those years had a major storm hit Florida.
Every year ending in 0 or 5 has had at least one retired storm.
No (retired) storm has ever hit Florida in years ending in 1, 3, or 7.



I lovestuff like this!!
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Quoting KarenRei:


Sports fishermen at Bikini are warned not to eat the fish because it is still considered contaminated. This is over fifty freaking years later. The islands themselves are only just now safe to live on in some places, but not to eat anything grown on them or caught in its waters; even being near a locally grown coconut is dangerous, as they concentrate the radionucleides from the soil. 28 species are locally extinct from the explosions. In the immediate aftermath, almost all species in the area were wiped out from the shock wave, but many later managed to repopulate from neighboring atolls.

And you want to do this to the Gulf?


The Last Real Frontier

Bikini Atoll, with its huge central lagoon surrounded by miles of untouched reefs, offers the sport fisherman a multitude of offshore and inshore fishing options--including trolling and fly fishing--unmatched anywhere in the world today: Blue & Black Marlin, Wahoo, Yellowfin & Dogtooth Tuna, Mahi Mahi, Bonefish, Barracuda, Giant & Bluefin Trevally, Rainbow Runners, Skipjack, Snapper and a wide variety of reef and bottom fish...


"This A-bomb test site has become an angler's paradise...Bikini is the last of the best saltwater fishing in the world."

-Field & Stream magazine, November, 1997


"The most fun I've ever had on a fishing vacation, or any vacation for that matter!"

-Steve Walgren of Gresham, Oregon, summer, 1997


"Bikini's waters [have] returned to a rare, undisturbed condition."

-Bill Curtsinger, National Geographic, January, 1995


"The only tension was the constant battle for my attention between the waves and the breeze blowing through the palm trees."

-ABC News Correspondent Mike Lee, April 1998


"...it was spectacular, for we had at least 30 releases per day on the reef, and could have tallied over 100 if we had not moved on to investigate other spots. After my first visit, I would definitely classify Bikini as a world-class tropical fishery, one that should remain productive for years to come..."

-Tony Peña, Salt Water Sportman, May 2000

Bikini Atoll opened to fishermen on a trial basis during late 1997 to provide, along with our successful scuba diving venture, an economic base for a possible future resettlement of Bikini Atoll.
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Quoting Levi32:


As I said, the trough is deep-layered, meaning that it extends from the upper atmosphere all the way down to the surface. As a result, all steering layers are compromised.

Ok I'll tried to remember deep-layer troughs and the direction they steer them in.
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Meaningless Trivia:
Nearly 25% of all retired names are from years ending in 5 (total of 17 storms).
All but one of those years had a major storm hit Florida.
Every year ending in 0 or 5 has had at least one retired storm.
No (retired) storm has ever hit Florida in years ending in 1, 3, or 7.
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good afternoon all
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581. kingy
if they set off a nuke in the gulf the united states would be technically at war with mexico lol
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Quoting CycloneOz:


on the models...that's 12 hour segments, right?


Correct.

Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Hi All,

90L's rain shield is just coming onshore here in NC. It is riding a NE wind of 10 to 15 Kts.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Underwater tests done at the Bikini Atoll, where "dirty devices" were tested, have shown that their is absolutely not a trace of radiation to be found.

Of course, the land masses are still very contaminated. You cannot eat any food that is grown on the islands.



Sports fishermen at Bikini are warned not to eat the fish because it is still considered contaminated. This is over fifty freaking years later. The islands themselves are only just now safe to live on in some places, but not to eat anything grown on them or caught in its waters; even being near a locally grown coconut is dangerous, as they concentrate the radionucleides from the soil. 28 species are locally extinct from the explosions. In the immediate aftermath, almost all species in the area were wiped out from the shock wave, but many later managed to repopulate from neighboring atolls.

And you want to do this to the Gulf?
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Quoting Levi32:


Dots and lines on what?


on the models...that's 12 hour segments, right?
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Quoting beell:


Hey Taco,

beell was right. You might want to keep going on southwest through Amarillo to chase along the western panhandle.

There sure are some smart people on this blog that know their stuff. beell said something would break out...and then out of nowhere...BAM!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

But Levi wouldn't a shallow system tend to get left behind by a trough? Seeing that it's going to track across Central America.


As I said, the trough is deep-layered, meaning that it extends from the upper atmosphere all the way down to the surface. As a result, all steering layers are compromised.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting CycloneOz:


Each of those dots and lines represent 12 hour segments, right?


Dots and lines on what?
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting Levi32:


A lot....to get a disturbance in that area to come up in to the GOM we'd have to wait potentially over 10 days, and that's not going to happen.
Ok thanks, It just concerns me with it being that close and the oil catastrophe!
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Any thoughts about the disturbance south of Jamaica and Hispaniola?
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Quoting Levi32:


A lot....to get a disturbance in that area to come up in to the GOM we'd have to wait potentially over 10 days, and that's not going to happen. The GOM will get its turn in due time, and nobody is going to like it.

But Levi wouldn't a shallow system tend to get left behind by a trough? Seeing that it's going to track across Central America.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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