Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Little change to 90L

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 13:33 GMT le 25 mai 2010

The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained E winds of 31 mph, gusting to 36 mph this morning. Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of the island, and seas are running 10 - 15 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L and the Central American disturbance this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 90L, and the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are near 24°C today and will remain in the 23 - 24°C range the next two days. These relatively cool SSTs have hampered formation of much heavy thunderstorm activity, as has the presence of a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops .

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala. The disturbance will move inland over Central America during the last half of the week, potentially bringing flooding rains to portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean late this week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tornadoes rip through the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center logged 17 reports of tornadoes yesterday, with twisters reported in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. In addition, there were 158 hail reports and 126 reports of damaging winds. Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries reported, and it was a good day for the Vortex2 tornado field research project. Former wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up with a very picturesque tornado near Faith, South Dakota, and has posted some spectacular video of the tornado.

Figure 2. Large tornado near Faith, South Dakota on May 24, 2010 just misses hitting a church. Image credit: Mike Theiss, ultimatechase.com. Check out his spectacular video of the tornado.

I'll be back later today to discuss how a hurricane might affect the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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1652. Cavin Rawlins 10:19 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Good Morning, The Gulf coast will be protected either way we put it. The subtropical jet stream isn't going anywhere, anytime soon - like about 2 weeks more. So shear will likely keep anything weak. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1653. Cavin Rawlins 10:22 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Blog Update Tropical Update - 90L, 90E and the Caribbean Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1655. Cavin Rawlins 10:34 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: GFS is having a hard time trying to handle this system. I can tell you this I don't expect this to get into the Caribbean due to the center reforming last night. I see your point. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1656. CycloneUK 10:34 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Member Since: 5 Mars 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 39

1657. MahFL 10:37 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Are we sure the trough will pick 90L up in time, before it comes ashore ? It seems to be getting pretty close to land. Member Since: 9 juin 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430

1658. Cavin Rawlins 10:39 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting CycloneUK: Add to the one near New Zealand earlier this month, these subtropical entities are popping up quite fast. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1659. wunderkidcayman 10:41 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5449

1660. BadHurricane 10:53 GMT le 26 mai 2010
90E already look like TS? Link Link Member Since: 5 décembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 59

1661. cg2916 10:53 GMT le 26 mai 2010
90L is looking a lot better. Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

1662. IKE 11:04 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1663. IKE 11:06 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Not much left of 90L.... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1664. MissNadia 11:10 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Morning All 90 is still kicking off the coast! Frying Pan Tower NDBC - Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy Observations Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy May 26, 2010 6:50 am EDT Location: 33.436N 77.743W Wind Direction: NNE (20°) Wind Speed: 25.3 knots Wind Gust: 29.2 knots Significant Wave Height: 9.5 ft Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec Average Period: 6.0 sec Mean Wave Direction: ESE (115°) Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in (1009.0 mb) Pressure Tendency: -0.00 in (-0.0 mb) Air Temperature: 69.8°F (21.0°C) Dew Point: 67.6°F (19.8°C) Water Temperature: 72.5°F (22.5°C) Member Since: 27 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2674

1665. wunderkidcayman 11:11 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5449

1666. hurricanelover236 11:13 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Mark my words. At the end of the season im gonna b on here saying i told you. This hurricane season wont be much different than last year. Its gonna be very inactive due to high wind shear and dust that is not gonna subside The water temps are hot but all the other factors point to a quiet season. Sorry Member Since: 12 août 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 183

1667. MiamiHurricanes09 11:17 GMT le 26 mai 2010
I think the larger, stronger 90E will continue drifting WNW while a piece of energy from it will move into the Caribbean. I think that is what the models are predicting. Below is a picture depicting what I'm thinking: Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1668. MiamiHurricanes09 11:22 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting BadHurricane: 90E already look like TS? Link Link They still haven't found winds above 25 MPH but I do think that we will have TD 1-E in within 18 hours. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1669. IKE 11:23 GMT le 26 mai 2010
CEO of BP on CNN....stop dodging the questions. You sound like every politician on the planet. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1670. wunderkidcayman 11:25 GMT le 26 mai 2010
good job MiamiHurricanes09 but it seems that big blob to the NW in your pic it just that a blob not 90E look at what I posted # 1663 that is where 90E is and look at the date and time Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5449

1671. IKE 11:25 GMT le 26 mai 2010
What I see in the east-PAC is near 12N and 96W. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1672. stormwatcherCI 11:25 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Is there any slight chance something could form from the blob south of Jamaica ? Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1673. MahFL 11:26 GMT le 26 mai 2010
BP CEO yet to give green light to Top Kill attempt. Member Since: 9 juin 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430

1674. severstorm 11:26 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting IKE: CEO of BP on CNN....stop dodging the questions. You sound like every politician on the planet. Morning Ike are they going to try and plug that puppy today? Member Since: 25 novembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 916

1675. weathermanwannabe 11:27 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting hurricanelover236: Mark my words. At the end of the season im gonna b on here saying i told you. This hurricane season wont be much different than last year. Its gonna be very inactive due to high wind shear and dust that is not gonna subside The water temps are hot but all the other factors point to a quiet season. Sorry Way too early to start with the proverbial "I told you so" prediction five months out Nostradomus........Good Morning to the Rest of You. Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6697

1677. MiamiHurricanes09 11:29 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: good job MiamiHurricanes09 but it seems that big blob to the NW in your pic it just that a blob not 90E look at what I posted # 1663 that is where 90E is and look at the date and time That's 90E. Post 1663, is 90L I'm not speaking about 90L. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1678. IKE 11:29 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting MahFL: BP CEO yet to give green light to Top Kill attempt. I noticed that too. They're so full of bull. They never should have drilled at 5,000 feet and were not prepared to deal with something like this at that depth. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1679. masonsnana 11:30 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe: Way too early to start with the proverbial "I told you so" prediction five months out Nostradomus........Good Morning to the Rest of You. I agree,, GM Member Since: 14 février 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 513

1680. IKE 11:30 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting severstorm: Morning Ike are they going to try and plug that puppy today? Not sure....they're not sure. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1681. MiamiHurricanes09 11:31 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Is there any slight chance something could form from the blob south of Jamaica ? Well I have been watching models with 90E and the GFS has been standing out to me. Take a look: 06z GFS 84 hours. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1682. MiamiHurricanes09 11:31 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting StormW: No problem! How do you like your crow? LOL!! LOL, I'm sure he/she will be eating a lot of that throughout the season. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1683. Cavin Rawlins 11:32 GMT le 26 mai 2010
BP sells oil and we buy the oil. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1684. weathermanwannabe 11:33 GMT le 26 mai 2010
On a tropical note two points of interest...The E-pac side is really pulsing so we have to see whether all that energy will persist on that side, or, whether some will move up towards the Atlantic side per any model support. If the e-pac system generates a storm, then I think things will remain quiet on the SW Caribbean side until that area "gets out of the way" so to speak. As far as sheer levels, interesting to note that sheer is prohibitive in all of the MDR in the Atlantic basin, except, for the small pocket of 10 knots around 90L which is also showing some vorticity.....Not enough left there, I think, to form a storm but interesting to see convection fire up as it feeds off of the Gulf Stream right about now......... Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6697

1685. cg2916 11:33 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting hurricanelover236: Mark my words. At the end of the season im gonna b on here saying i told you. This hurricane season wont be much different than last year. Its gonna be very inactive due to high wind shear and dust that is not gonna subside The water temps are hot but all the other factors point to a quiet season. Sorry Shear will subside by mid-June. The dust changes, too. Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

1686. cg2916 11:34 GMT le 26 mai 2010
So, 90L looks better, but its convection is still scattered. Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

1687. wunderkidcayman 11:35 GMT le 26 mai 2010
MiamiHurricanes09 I am not talking about 90L I am talking about 90E Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5449

1688. MiamiHurricanes09 11:36 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: MiamiHurricanes09 I am not talking about 90L I am talking about 90E Sorry I just have no clue what you wrote on post 1670. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1689. cg2916 11:37 GMT le 26 mai 2010
I think 90E will be TD-1. It's monstrous, strong, and somewhat organized. I just think it'll take more like 24-36 hours, instead of 18. It might need to get its convection less scattered, and the NHC might be a bit conservative. Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

1690. IKE 11:37 GMT le 26 mai 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT WED MAY 26 2010 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1691. MiamiHurricanes09 11:37 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Good bye everyone. I will see you all later today. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1692. Cavin Rawlins 11:38 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Is there any slight chance something could form from the blob south of Jamaica ? upper diffluence Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1693. DDR 11:38 GMT le 26 mai 2010
good morning all Unbelieveable rainfall in Trinidad since 10pm-now,close to 10 inches and its still pouring,got to be some records broken. Member Since: 27 avril 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 1475

1694. Tropicsweatherpr 11:39 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Look how the cold waters continue to expand in the equatorial Pacific. Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8205

1695. gator23 11:39 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting hurricanelover236: Mark my words. At the end of the season im gonna b on here saying i told you. This hurricane season wont be much different than last year. Its gonna be very inactive due to high wind shear and dust that is not gonna subside The water temps are hot but all the other factors point to a quiet season. Sorry What factors, The La Nina? the fact that SAL is lower that last year or the fact that wind shear is dropping? Member Since: 26 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

1696. cyclonekid 11:41 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Information Courtesy of Weather Underground Graphic Courtesy of cyclonekid :)) Member Since: 14 juillet 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629

1697. IKE 11:41 GMT le 26 mai 2010
175 miles south of the GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC and moving NW...hard to see that getting into the Caribbean..... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1698. cg2916 11:41 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting IKE: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT WED MAY 26 2010 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH Up to 50% now. Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

1699. cg2916 11:42 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting gator23: What factors, The La Nina? the fact that SAL is lower that last yer or the fact that wind shear is dropping? Owned... Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

1700. hercj 11:43 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Atalntis coming home for the last time at 845am eastern. You folks in South Florida should get to see it as the approach to 13 is going to take it right over South fl. Member Since: 5 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1701. cg2916 11:43 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting IKE: GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC and moving NW...hard to see that getting into the Caribbean..... It re-curves. I said the same thing with 90L on Saturday ("How can that possibly make it to NC?") Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

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