Loop Current Eddy cuts off; oil danger to Keys now greatly reduced
A major ocean current re-alignment is underway the Gulf of Mexico right now, and the new configuration that is developing greatly reduces the threat of oil entering the Loop Current and affecting the Florida Keys and U.S. East Coast. As I explain in my Loop Current Primer, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and past the western Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. With current speeds of about 0.8 m/s, the Loop Current is one of the fastest currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Every 6 - 11 months, the top bulge of the Loop Current cuts off, forming a 250-mile diameter circular eddy in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. This clockwise-spinning eddy is filled with warm water from the Loop Current, and is called a Loop Current Eddy. The main body of the Loop Current then takes a fairly direct eastward path from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Keys.
Over the past two days, surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico have aligned to form a Loop Current Eddy, as seen in the analysis of surface currents done by the U.S. Navy (Figure 1, and see also a 30-day animation of the eddy forming.) It remains to be seen if the deep water currents have followed suit, and a stable Loop Current Eddy cannot exist until the deep water currents also cut off into a clockwise-rotating ring of water at depth. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is out over the Gulf of Mexico today dropping expendable buoys and current probes to determine if a stable Loop Current Eddy has formed. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the Loop Current Eddy formation.
Figure 1. Comparison of surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico on May 19 (top) and May 27 (bottom) as simulated by the HYCOM model. On May 19, the Loop Current made a large northward loop into the Gulf, and was able to transport oil from the near the spill location southwards through the Keys. By May 27, this loop had cut off, and new oil moving southwards from the spill will now be trapped in the clockwise rotating Loop Current Eddy that is cut off from the Loop Current. Note on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Texas, there is an old Loop Current Eddy that cut off from the Loop Current in July 2009. This eddy cut off in the same location as this week's eddy, and has drifted west-southwestward at 3 - 5 km per day over the past ten months. Image credit: U.S. Navy.
If the eddy does remain in place, it will greatly reduce the chances of oil making it to Cuba, the Florida Keys, and beyond. Any oil moving southwards from the spill location will now become entrained in the eddy, and will move in a 250 mile-wide clockwise circle in the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A small portion the oil will get shed away from the eddy's periphery and make it into the Loop Current and waters surrounding the eddy, but the concentrations of oil doing so will be small. Keep in mind, though, that during the first 1 - 2 months that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it is common for the eddy to exchange substantial amounts of water with the Loop Current, and in some cases get re-absorbed into the Loop Current. A 1-year animation of the Loop Current shows that the last Loop Current Eddy, which cut off in mid-July 2009, experienced a 2-week period in early August when it re-attached to the Loop Current. A significant portion of any oil entering the eddy during a period of re-attachment will be able to enter the Loop Current and flow past the Keys.
One bad result of the eddy breaking off is that now we have an extra source of heat energy for passing hurricanes during the upcoming hurricane season. Loop Current eddies have high-temperature water that extends to great depth, and hurricanes passing over such eddies often undergo rapid intensification. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 both underwent rapid intensification as they passed over warm Loop Current eddies in 2005. The formation of a Loop Current Eddy during hurricane season means that a much greater portion of the Gulf of Mexico has deep, warm water capable of fueling rapid intensification of hurricanes.
Oil spill update
Light offshore northwesterly winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, resulting decreased threats of oil to the Louisiana shore, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These offshore winds may be able to transport oil southwards into the Loop Current Eddy that just formed; a streamer of oil moving southeastward into the Loop Current Eddy is visible in yesterday's NASA MODIS imagery (Figure 2). Winds will shift to onshore out of the south on Saturday night, then shift to southwesterly by Tuesday. The long-range forecast from the GFS model indicates continued southwesterly winds all of next week. If this forecast verifies, we will see our greatest chances yet of significant amounts of oil reaching the beaches of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico taken at 2:55pm EDT Thursday May 27, 2010, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Thin streaks of oil can be seen moving southeast and then southwest around the eastern side of the new Loop Current Eddy. Image credit: NASA.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Central American disturbance
The Atlantic is currently quiet, with none of our reliable global forecast models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next 6 days. There is an area of disturbed weather (90E) just off the Pacific coast of Mexico that will be a major concern for southern Mexico and much of Central America over the next 3 - 4 days. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the weekend, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. NHC is giving the disturbance a high (>60% chance) of the disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on the tropics.
Figure 3. Satellite image of the Central American disturbance 90E this morning.
Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:
1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season
I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
I'll be back with at least one update over the coming 3-day Memorial Day weekend. Have a great holiday!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Cheney on CNN
i kinda figured so, but you never can tell around here
Link
Or lake Atitlan
and...
"POOF !!!!"
I think he left. But he said American Indian and only the US uses that term. And the BIA is a US agency.
If the storm heads southeast after passing the Bahamas...where will it go?
Lol of course Im serious ;)
This is what I suspect is going to happen...
I'm the one who updated that on Wikipedia, you're welcome.
WTPZ31 KNHC 300229
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA MOVING FARTHER INLAND...TORRENTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 92.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM...ENE OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS
AGATHA MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...A FEW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN SQUALLS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER WATER TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...THE LARGE WAVES OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
Point being? How does that fix us now. After the fact. Does it really matter ? Is he in charge???
"Then"
caused
"now"
Oh..one more before I head up..
Lah,lah,lah..
Agatha early cycle Model guidance
ACCESS FORBIDDEN?
10,000!! Wouldn't that be a record.
So we should accept our deficiencies in response and clean up? I don't think so.....
Huh?
Back tomorrow
My take is that BP should pay for it all, and farm out the costs to the contracted driller and the subcontracted cementer (i'm still convinced Halliburton is the mad dog behind this whole thing, but that' just my $.02). But I also agree that govt. oversight should be greater. Problem is, who do they get to perform that oversight who's not already tarred (if u will pardon the pun) with the same oil?
Actually shear there isn't too bad... although I should probably move my TC formation zone up a little.
They're fearful because they've already had a strong earthquake. Link
My point is we have assets sitting on the sidelines. Those assets are not being used or demanded by our gov. with respect to clean up. The stuff that catches the oil prior to the shoreline. Why?
If we can do even part of what they did 25 years ago in the Arabian gulf, why don't we do it. Let alone Costner's equipment...
Edit: they are lol
"We believe Agatha could wreak more damage in the country than tropical storm Mitch (1998) and Hurricane Stan (2005)," said President Alvaro Colom's spokesman Ronaldo Robles.
Does pointing a finger clean the oil up? Think about it........
Most models in agreement, Agatha should make its way into the Atlantic.
It appears that Unfriendly got a new handle...
;-)
(not referring to Oss)
No response because there is nothing to say. The CMC will be the CMC....that scenario won't happen.
Ixtoc took 9 months to stop, at 50 meters. Guess again.
-_-
My point: who do u get to try something new? I know I sound cynical, but it seems everybody out there is willing to sell their compadres down the river if it means a good financial deal...
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