Loop Current Eddy cuts off; oil danger to Keys now greatly reduced
A major ocean current re-alignment is underway the Gulf of Mexico right now, and the new configuration that is developing greatly reduces the threat of oil entering the Loop Current and affecting the Florida Keys and U.S. East Coast. As I explain in my Loop Current Primer, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and past the western Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. With current speeds of about 0.8 m/s, the Loop Current is one of the fastest currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Every 6 - 11 months, the top bulge of the Loop Current cuts off, forming a 250-mile diameter circular eddy in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. This clockwise-spinning eddy is filled with warm water from the Loop Current, and is called a Loop Current Eddy. The main body of the Loop Current then takes a fairly direct eastward path from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Keys.
Over the past two days, surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico have aligned to form a Loop Current Eddy, as seen in the analysis of surface currents done by the U.S. Navy (Figure 1, and see also a 30-day animation of the eddy forming.) It remains to be seen if the deep water currents have followed suit, and a stable Loop Current Eddy cannot exist until the deep water currents also cut off into a clockwise-rotating ring of water at depth. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is out over the Gulf of Mexico today dropping expendable buoys and current probes to determine if a stable Loop Current Eddy has formed. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the Loop Current Eddy formation.
Figure 1. Comparison of surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico on May 19 (top) and May 27 (bottom) as simulated by the HYCOM model. On May 19, the Loop Current made a large northward loop into the Gulf, and was able to transport oil from the near the spill location southwards through the Keys. By May 27, this loop had cut off, and new oil moving southwards from the spill will now be trapped in the clockwise rotating Loop Current Eddy that is cut off from the Loop Current. Note on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Texas, there is an old Loop Current Eddy that cut off from the Loop Current in July 2009. This eddy cut off in the same location as this week's eddy, and has drifted west-southwestward at 3 - 5 km per day over the past ten months. Image credit: U.S. Navy.
If the eddy does remain in place, it will greatly reduce the chances of oil making it to Cuba, the Florida Keys, and beyond. Any oil moving southwards from the spill location will now become entrained in the eddy, and will move in a 250 mile-wide clockwise circle in the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A small portion the oil will get shed away from the eddy's periphery and make it into the Loop Current and waters surrounding the eddy, but the concentrations of oil doing so will be small. Keep in mind, though, that during the first 1 - 2 months that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it is common for the eddy to exchange substantial amounts of water with the Loop Current, and in some cases get re-absorbed into the Loop Current. A 1-year animation of the Loop Current shows that the last Loop Current Eddy, which cut off in mid-July 2009, experienced a 2-week period in early August when it re-attached to the Loop Current. A significant portion of any oil entering the eddy during a period of re-attachment will be able to enter the Loop Current and flow past the Keys.
One bad result of the eddy breaking off is that now we have an extra source of heat energy for passing hurricanes during the upcoming hurricane season. Loop Current eddies have high-temperature water that extends to great depth, and hurricanes passing over such eddies often undergo rapid intensification. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 both underwent rapid intensification as they passed over warm Loop Current eddies in 2005. The formation of a Loop Current Eddy during hurricane season means that a much greater portion of the Gulf of Mexico has deep, warm water capable of fueling rapid intensification of hurricanes.
Oil spill update
Light offshore northwesterly winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, resulting decreased threats of oil to the Louisiana shore, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These offshore winds may be able to transport oil southwards into the Loop Current Eddy that just formed; a streamer of oil moving southeastward into the Loop Current Eddy is visible in yesterday's NASA MODIS imagery (Figure 2). Winds will shift to onshore out of the south on Saturday night, then shift to southwesterly by Tuesday. The long-range forecast from the GFS model indicates continued southwesterly winds all of next week. If this forecast verifies, we will see our greatest chances yet of significant amounts of oil reaching the beaches of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico taken at 2:55pm EDT Thursday May 27, 2010, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Thin streaks of oil can be seen moving southeast and then southwest around the eastern side of the new Loop Current Eddy. Image credit: NASA.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Central American disturbance
The Atlantic is currently quiet, with none of our reliable global forecast models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next 6 days. There is an area of disturbed weather (90E) just off the Pacific coast of Mexico that will be a major concern for southern Mexico and much of Central America over the next 3 - 4 days. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the weekend, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. NHC is giving the disturbance a high (>60% chance) of the disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on the tropics.
Figure 3. Satellite image of the Central American disturbance 90E this morning.
Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:
1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season
I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
I'll be back with at least one update over the coming 3-day Memorial Day weekend. Have a great holiday!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Doubt many remember this.
Ixtoc I, well blowout
I agree with this entirely. Sorry if I misunderstood.
The worst part is that BP really won't be paying for this mess. WE ALL WILL for generations to come. My grandkids, grandkids will be paying for this.
BTW - This isn't totally Obama's fault - yet. This is the result of policies put into play a long time ago. The disaster just happened to hit now. In order for ME to decide about blaming Obama for this mess, I need to see HOW he continues to respond to the crisis. Anyone who thinks ONE MAN can re-write the S.O.P.'s for EVERY Federal Governemnt Agency the minute they take office is naive to the inner workings of U.S. Government. He sets the general policies and directions he wants each agency to take and can make corrections along the way. But to say MMS was fine under the past president's before and now all of a sudden it is messed up isn't taking a fair look at the whole situation. To be honest with I knew we had an agency that overlooked oil exploration, but I didn't know it was called MMS until now - I bet many folks on this board didn't either.
a
reasoned
view
LOL I stand corrected.
"Brownie" was the Hero of the day.
What would we have done without him?
I agree too.... "Well Said"
Taco :o)
We just waiting on some weather...
And Dr. Masters has the Oil Leak as the topic of this blog. Sort of. So we were trying to decide who actually caused it. Otherwise he would not have had a topic. Kind of convoluted, like the weather.
A new wave coming off Africa needs to see if it can keep it's moisture with it and get to 50W or so. Then we will have some more fun.
*Final Advisory* - 5 am EDT Graphics Update
**All graphics by AllStar17
May 30, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Broad Trough across the central Caribbean, including Jamaica.
Comment…
Comment… The Trough will remain across the central Caribbean until Tuesday.
TODAY'S FORECAST
This Morning… Expect scattered showers over central and western parishes, mostly cloudy elsewhere.
This Afternoon… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect sections of most parishes.
Tonight… Partly cloudy.
3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Mon/Tue… Isolated afternoon showers mainly across northern parishes.
Wed… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Regionally… A Tropical Wave across the southeastern Caribbean.
grb
To a large degree, yes.
I still demand that electricity is cheap, gas is far cheaper than rum, and that plastic bottles cost nothing.
Dont raise any prices, or I will vote you out. Simple.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 37W-41W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 11N MOVING NW 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED AS A CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAINLY BETWEEN 8N-11N AND ALSO REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS.
CATLoop
NAM is a WRF platform. So is RUC.
I don't know of anyone running a basin-wide WRF or global WRF, but it could be done.
plastic bottles are made oil.
Yeah, I'm standing here on my soapbox, but the crowds have all gone to see the latest version of Robin Hood.
I got to get my priorities seen to!
This is not the time for name-game playing. It is an event which may eventually affect the entire world, and yes, even our weather. Like it or not, the rest of the world will be watching how well we respond to it. It must give our enemies great joy to see how united we are as a people.
On a lighter note, does anyone believe that ex-Agatha will make it into the Caribbean? I personally think Guatemala should have done more in preventing this system from crossing over and possibly threaten our shores.
You dont say!!
And if we did not have oilwells, we would have no thinners to get the tar off our toes.
The mind boggles at the thought.
Drill, baby, drill.
myFoxHurricane runs both an Atlantic and Caribean WRF. I was just wondering how accurate it is. For example does it have the same problems with convective feadback early in the season?
A violent low pressure system is delivering destructive winds, heavy rainfall and huge seas along southern coasts of New South Wales.
The system developed overnight from a trough that pushed through the southeast. Currently, several low pressure centres are spinning off the main system.
Since the early hours of Sunday, destructive wind gusts beyond 130km/h have been recorded. Montague Island was blasted by 135km/h wind gusts at around 6am, the strongest in at least eight years.
The effects of the low have been felt in Victoria too, with Mt Hotham hit by a gust of 120km/h, the highest in nine months.
Rainfall has been heavy too, with showers infiltrating the Southern Tablelands. Totals this morning in just six or seven hours were:
- Mt Darragh 85mm.
- Eden 47mm.
- Cooma 40mm.
- Nimmitabel 79mm.
Conditions offshore have deteriorated significantly, with maximum wave heights off Eden reaching between six and eleven metres.
Towards Sydney, sunshine and light winds are bringing a pleasant day with little evidence of the maelstrom to the south.
The weather will head north though, but Sydney may now miss the worst of it.
© Weatherzone 2010
Aussie!!! NO!!! I'm addicted already! Does he ever drink form the water bottle? EVER? How long do I have to watch this??
AAAUURRGHHH!!!
Excellent.
Ackee for breakfast?
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is warning residents on the south coast of NSW that a combination of low pressure systems is creating dangerous weather conditions, with gale-force winds and heavy rain.
BOM meteorologist Rob Webb says there are already wind gusts blowing at more than 130 kilometres per hour that have damaged homes. He says the winds will increase throughout the day as the system moves up the coast.
"It's already happening down there now, so we've already have seen winds in excess of 130 kilometres an hour as we speak on the south coast," he said.
"During the course of this morning and into the afternoon these type of conditions will continue to develop.
"The event is already happening and will continue to do so for the remainder of the day as these low pressure systems spin in off the Tasman Sea."
Mr Webb says the worst-affected areas are around Montague Island and Narooma, with the storm moving towards Bateman's Bay later in the day.
"There's three main areas of concern to the community: one would be the very damaging winds and there already has been some damage on the south coast of New South Wales with damage to homes, very heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and possible riverine flooding," he said.
"We have flood watches out and also very dangerous swells, very large swells, 8 to 9-metre swells hitting the coastline. So today is not a day to be down at the beach at all."
Torrential rains and gale-force winds are forecast to hit the south coast and eastern parts of the Southern Tablelands this morning and Phil Campbell from the SES says crews are also preparing for flash flooding.
"We have all of our volunteers across the south coast - and that's some hundreds of volunteers - who are on standby for this weather event," he said.
"We're also poised to bring in volunteers from other parts of NSW should weather conditions deteriorate."
Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding in the Bega, Moruya, Tuross and Shoalhaven Rivers this morning, and flash flooding is also predicted for Wollongong.
After lashing the south coast, the weather system is expected to track northwards, bringing rain and wind to the Illawarra region.
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a storm force wind warning for the south coast and a gale warning for the Illawarra coast.
It also warned of strong winds for the Sydney coast and the Hunter coast.
Emergency services advised people in the area to stay clear of creeks, storm drains and causeways.
Predictions that waves will exceed five metres in the surf zone have also prompted a warning to stay well away from surf-exposed areas.
© ABC 2010
Emergency crews are on standby as severe weather continues to lash the New South Wales south coast and a cluster of low pressure systems heads north toward Wollongong and Sydney.
Winds of up to 120 kilometres per hour have hit parts of the coast, damaging property and causing large-scale blackouts.
The low pressure system has moved further up the coast and is now sitting over Ulladulla and Bateman's Bay, where there has been reported of wind gusts of 95 kilometres per hour.
A forecaster at the Bureau says the winds are expected to worsen in the area.
Rob Webb from the Bureau of Meteorology says the system will gradually move north but the winds will weaken.
"The winds will extend up towards places like Wollongong, but we're expecting them to lose a lot of their bite by the time that does occur," he said.
New South Wales Emergency Services Minister Steve Whan is warning people south of Sydney to be prepared as the storm moves further up the coast.
"We just reiterate the warning to people not to go into flooded waterways or creeks, make sure they're staying a bit back from the coast, obviously the waves on the coast are pretty severe," he said.
Earlier today a surfer was taken to hospital with suspected spinal injuries at Cronulla in Sydney's south.
The State Emergency Service says they've had around 230 calls for help, with Narooma and Bermagui the worst hit towns. The SES number is 132 500.
SES spokesman Colin Johnson says extra crews are travelling from Sydney and the Southern Highlands.
"The low is very slow at the moment and it's still dumping rain right across the southern south-east section of New South Wales," he said.
"Calls for assistance have been focused from Moruya or Batemans Bay south to even as far as Eden."
Mr Johnson says teams from other areas around the state are providing assistance, and more are on stand-by as the low heads toward Wollongong.
"As the low moves north our focus of attention of course will start moving into the more populous areas of our region," he said.
He says the low will reach the Wollongong area in the next 12 to 18 hours.
Peter Higgins from the SES says some houses have been damaged.
"There has been some unroofing but not complete houses lost," he said.
Mr Higgins says communities will experience a calm patch before wind and rain re-intensifies.
"This low has a number of cells that will come across land at different points along the south coast," he said.
"The communities will have an impact of heaving rain or wind or both, then there may be a lull, then there may be a follow on after that."
The weather bureau says Narooma, Moruya and Bateman's Bay were copping the brunt of the wild weather this afternoon.
The Bureau of Meteorology's Gina Laurie says there is still a chance of flash flooding later today.
"There is still a possibility that the rain will pick up through the afternoon and potentially cause some flash flooding in some areas," she said.
She says the low pressure system is due to cross the coast late this afternoon.
"It's expected it will be somewhere in the north part of the south coast or possibly parts of the Illawarra, that would be late this afternoon," she said.
"That's when we're expecting the more serious weather to impact parts of the Illawarra."
The ABC's Thomas Oriti, reporting from Bega on the far south coast, described some of the damage.
"There's a lot of debris on the road, the arms of trees all over the place, very, very wet and gusty," he said.
"Power is flicking on and off quite often. We have heard that all the way down the coast from towns such as Quaama to Eden, the power is out completely."
Electricity wires have collapsed onto local roads and more than 9,000 people have been left without power in the Eden, Bega, Bodalla and Narooma areas.
Country Energy says it has returned power to 2,000 Bombala homes, but 2,000 more in Tuross Heads remain blacked-out.
The energy supplier says the chances of everyone getting power back on before nightfall are very remote.
The Princes Highway is blocked at various locations.
Earlier today the wild weather caused road closures in the worst-affected areas of the south coast between Bega and Ulladulla.
Police Inspector Jason Edmunds from the South Coast Local Area Command says the Princes Highway is closed at Cobargo and there is very limited access at Bodalla.
He says fallen trees are blocking the Snowy Mountains Highway at Brown Mountain and crews from the local council are working with the RTA to clear the roads.
"We're all doing the best we can at the moment, with the conditions remaining the same and trees still coming down at different places," he said.
"We're advising motorists to avoid unnecessary travel and certainly to be very careful of their speeds given the fact that they wont know what's around the next corner."
New South Wales Emergency Services Minister Steve Whan says it is too early to tell how much damage the storms are causing.
"It wouldn't be the worst that we've ever seen but it's certainly causing some damage at the moment," he said.
"[It's] hard to know until it finishes exactly what that total damage will be, about 160 calls is not massive at the moment but we are expecting that to increase over the day as the storm progresses north up the coast."
A flood watch is in place for the Bega, Moruya, Tuross and Shoalhaven rivers and the weather bureau is warning of possible flash flooding at Wollongong and other areas below the Illawarra escarpment.
The owner of a bed and breakfast at Eden, Fay Speer, says she has had power outages, heavy rain and strong winds.
"I'm not sure how much rain we had but it absolutely teemed all night and then the winds came up early this morning," she said.
"Now we've had a couple of blackouts early this morning and the seas are very, very rough."
Farmer James Thomson lives on a property between Narooma and Moruya and says he is preparing for more heavy rain.
"It had been a little bit slacked off there, but it's just coming in really heavy now," he said.
"It was windy, the wind has backed off now, but around 7 and before that it was just a howling gale.
"I think there's a fair bit of rain yet to come by the look of it, out to the west there."
© ABC 2010
Link
Has not run recently, but does during the season.
click on it and you will drop food, drop 1 near the water bottle and it will drink.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA
*Final Advisory* - 5 am EDT Graphics Update
**All graphics by AllStar17
Who????
French toast and bacon! The ackee tree isn't bearing and I used the last of my frozen ones last week. I personally don't like the tinned ones.
No way I can answer that.
and NEW BLOG!!
hahaha & Good Morning.
sorry but i'm so sick of hearing katrina and bush. he's gone. its been almost 2 years. if bush was president right now, this would be his problem and rightfully so. did obama personally cause the spill? no, but there were signs ignored a year ago by this administration. bp just won a saftey award. policies don't work if there not enforced
Dare I say it? Oh, alright.
Could it be that all of the available environmental lobbying, legislation, attention, and even voter interest has been exhausted by AGW for the last 10 years all the while common sense legislation, with clear, positive results have been neglected entirely. And over sight by the environmental watch dogs has instead been getting the message out about cap and trade, of late, IPCC before that.
I have said before that since we cannot do without fossil fuels right now, we should be effectively regulating industries that lead to environmental pollution while funding alternate energy research until the time comes that we can do without crude oil.
Is this disaster a direct result? Probably not. Is it an indirect result of ALL of the think-tanks trying their level best to convince a populace and their representation that we need to arbitrarily raise the costs of maintaining our standard or living? And no one is overseeing what environmental concerns exist from drilling in deep waters without the ability to close an open well? Possibly.
Right, I knew about that one...forgot.
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