CSU predicts highly active hurricane season; Cyclone Phet approaching Oman
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 185% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is a step up from their April forecast, which called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (51% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (50% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 65% (42% is average.) This is the most aggressive early June forecast ever issued by the CSU group; the previous most aggressive such forecasts were for the 2006 and 2007 seasons, when the CSU team predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Both of these forecasts did poorly, particularly the 2006 forecast, as only 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes were observed.
The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:
1) Weak La Niña conditions should develop by the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). The expected trend towards weak La Niña conditions should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.
2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.
3) A weaker-than-normal Azores High prevailed during April-May. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.
4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.
Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: weak El Niño to neutral conditions, well above-average tropical Atlantic SSTs, and above-average far North Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1969, the 3rd worst hurricane season of all time, featuring Category 5 Hurricane Camille which hit Mississippi; 1966, a relatively average year that featured Category 4 Inez that killed 1,000 people in Haiti; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2009 CSU forecast.
How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team over the past 12 years have had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes are what do 80 - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses the same formula as the past two years, which did quite well predicting the 2008 hurricane season (prediction: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes; observed: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes) and 2009 hurricane season (prediction: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes; observed: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes.) An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.44 to 0.58 for their June forecasts, which is respectable.
Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. The British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 4. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.
NOAA's 2010 hurricane season forecast
NOAA issued their forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season last week. As I discussed in my post on their forecast, NOAA is calling for very active and possibly hyperactive season. They give an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 5% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA predicts a 70% chance that there will be 14 - 23 named storms, 8 - 14 hurricanes, and 3 - 7 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the 155% - 270% of normal range. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 210% of normal. A season with an ACE index over 175% is considered "hyperactive."
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
Record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds yesterday, and has weakened slightly to 135 mph winds this morning. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone.
Phet is over very warm waters of 30 - 31°C, and is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. However, the storm is wrapping in dry air from the Arabian Peninsula, which has caused weakening. Visible satellite imagery from this morning (Figure 2) shows that the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of Phet have been eroded away by dry air. Phet is a small storm, and could fall apart fairly quickly if dry air can penetrate into its core. This should happen later today, since wind shear is on the increase, and the shearing winds should be able to disrupt the circulation enough that dry air can force its way into Phet's eyewall. Phet is fairly small, will miss the most heavily populated areas of Oman, and will likely undergo significant weakening before landfall, so the storm is unlikely to cause the kind of catastrophic flooding that Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007 brought to Oman. Gonu killed 50 people and did $4.2 billion in damage. Phet's heaviest rains will be confined to a relatively sparsely populated region of Oman's coast. Rainfall amounts in excess of 6 inches in 18 hours (Figure 3) can be expected along Oman's coast today, which will likely cause extreme flooding.
After Phet's encounter with Oman, the storm will probably be at tropical storm strength when it makes its second landfall in Pakistan. Heavy rains from Phet will be the major danger for Pakistan, and serious flooding can be expected over southern Pakistan.
Figure 3. Forecast rain amounts for the 18-hour period ending at 2am EDT June 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Oil spill update
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 - 1 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday and Monday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll be back Friday with an analysis of the new TSR hurricane forecast and a new forecast by a promising Florida State University model.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 — Blog Index
Ah! Good to know that not all 'pagans' need to be eliminated, and that you know some that are fun to be around.
I know some Christians that I sometimes feel to eliminate as well.
Just a matter of personal choice, I suppose....
Nice showers here overnight, with a wave approaching that does not look as potent today as it did yesterday.
Hoping for good news from The Deep sometime today as well.
Looking at that gusher last night, it looked like I imagine Hell to be like.
I can see why some are being shaken to their foundations....
peace, friends.
Think they started this procedure about last Sunday.
yep us to
and i think i hear thunder now so were gona get it again.
"Cap wrestled into place, oil continues to spew
Wendy Victora
Northwest Florida Daily News
Southwest winds continue to move the oil slick northward toward Mississippi, Alabama and Florida shorelines and no major shift is expected through Sunday. The spill could threaten shorelines as far east as Freeport, according to the surface oil forecast from Deepwater Horizon.
However, as of early Friday morning, there have been no reported shore impacts in Florida.
A cap was wrestled onto the broken Gulf of Mexico well overnight, but oil continued to spew, according to the latest reports. It was unclear how much of the oil could be captured.
Coast Guard Adm.Thad Allen called the installation of the cap a positive development, but said it was too early to tell if it will work. The funnel-like lid is designed to channel oil for pumping to a surface tanker.
"Even if successful, this is only a temporary and partial fix and we must continue our aggressive response operations at the source, on the surface and along the Gulf's precious coastline," Allen said in a statement.
"Robots a mile beneath the Gulf positioned the lid over the main pipe on the leaking well Thursday night. Live video footage, though, showed that the oil seemed unimpeded."
301
fxus64 klix 041203
afdlix
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
703 am CDT Friday Jun 4 2010
Aviation...
thunderstorms and rain/rain showers moving north-northeast toward btr area ahead of line of strong storms
from near Kier-klft-kehc platform. Expect that storms preceding the
line will become more numerous as impressive and stronger deep
layer shear just offshore moves inland near and northwest of khum. Have
already mentioned gusts in thunderstorms and rain but will be upping wind gusts
there and at hum for the morning hours. Then bulk of storms hit
msy/new between 16-20z...and 17-22z hsa/gpt.
For the later periods the upper low will slowly approach and more
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain should develop near btr after 05/10z and near gpt a little
earlier. Keep
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 357 am CDT Friday Jun 4 2010/
Synopsis...
well defined surface and upper low systems are centered near
Houston early this morning. Weak warm front appears to be residing
near Interstate 10 with slightly higher dew points and a little
more wind to the south of the boundary. Most convection at this
time appears to be limited to southwest Louisiana...but a
thunderstorm or two have developed in the last 30 minutes in the
Atchafalaya River basin. Temperatures and dew points generrally in
the low to middle 70s.
Short term...
short range models unusually consistent in handling low pressure
system through at least Saturday with the low centers moving into
southern Louisiana. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop...mainly during the daylight hours...over the next two
days.
Enhanced middle level winds associated with the upper low may
bring a few storms near severe limits this afternoon...with the
main threat damaging winds...although an isolated tornado cannot
be totally ruled out. While widespread heavy rain is not
anticipated...areas that see multiple thunderstorms could receive
2-4 inches of rain with very isolated higher amounts. Similar
conditions are expected Saturday...although areal coverage will be
somewhat less as upper low weakens. As low shears out on
Sunday...probability of precipitation fall back into the scattered range.
Temperatures should remain within a couple of degrees of normal
today and Saturday...although a few areas that receive
thunderstorms early enough in the day will come up somewhat short
on maximum temperatures. 35
A very bad situation all round for everyone and everything breathing today.
Sorry for ranting.....Alan
That's a great freeze frame YouTube set you up with on that video. I wish they'd do the same for me! :(
No way to tell till they hook up the mile of pipe to the top. I will say tho that with all thats comming out of the bottom of that thing. I dont see it getting any better with the back pressure that a mile of pipe will add.
G' morning..
The flow is Pumping up..just not very much.
BP: cap gets some Gulf oil, crude still spews
By The Associated Press
June 04, 2010, 6:59AM
BP reported some oil was flowing up a pipe Friday from a cap it wrestled onto its broken Gulf of Mexico well but crude still spewed and it was unclear how much could be captured in the latest bid to tame the nation's worst oil spill.
President Barack Obama was set to visit the Louisiana coast Friday, his second trip in a week and the third since the disaster unfolded following an April 20 oil rig explosion.
Friday-oilAP Photo / BP LLCThis image taken from video released by BP LLC shows oil gushing during efforts to cap the Deepwater Horizon oil well in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.The government's point man for the crisis, Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, said the cap's installation atop a severed pipe late Thursday was a positive development but it was too early to tell if will work. The funnel-like lid is designed to channel oil for pumping to a surface tanker.
"Even if successful, this is only a temporary and partial fix and we must continue our aggressive response operations at the source, on the surface and along the Gulf's precious coastline," Allen said in a statement.
BP's Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles said it will be later in the day before they know how much is being captured.
"There is flow coming up the pipe. Just now, I don't know the exact rate," Suttles said on NBC's "Today" show.
Robots a mile beneath the Gulf positioned the lid over the main pipe on the leaking well Thursday night. Live video footage, though, showed that the oil seemed unimpeded.
To put the cap in place, BP had to slice off the pipe with giant shears after a diamond-edged saw became stuck.
Suttles said some of the oil still pouring out came from vents deliberately placed to keep icelike crystals from forming that could block the funnel. BP will try to close those four vents in succession and reduce the spill, he said.
If the idea fails -- like every other attempt to control the six-week-old leak -- the best chance is probably a relief well, which is at least two months away. The well has spit out between 21 million and 46 million gallons of oil since a rig exploded on April 20 about 50 miles from the Louisiana coast, killing 11 workers. BP was leasing the rig and is responsible to fix and clean up the spill.
And boy what a summer you are going to see!
Let me know... LOL...
Pretty good support on the GFS and the sat loops to justifiy continued attention to the closed mid level low and upper trough over TX this morning. Another vort max developing at the base of the positive tilt trough over Mexico. Should swing out over the Bay of Campeche. Shear would still prohibit any tropical development but stormy and unsettled weather should remain over the Deepwater Horizon site.
Valid 06Z Saturday.
Link
And for a conditional event, a nice east coast trough split at 700mb along 20N 70W for the first of next week. Broad cyclonic flow over the central Caribbean that may/may not coincide with the passage of tropical wave.
Valid 18Z Monday
Link
Me either... I don;t like being the cetner of the orange part.
BTW - Did all Hail break loose last night for you too? The last time I was caught in a hail storm in Miami-Dade was 2005, the time before that was 1992...
Not looking for this year - hope those were wierd coincendences...
As of my bed time last night they did not have the pipe connected. Is good news they have it on now. We can smell oil here in Port Richey for the first time. Not a good thing to wake up to
I'm starting to think the whole 2012 thing may be true!
By Editorial page staff, The Times-Picayune
June 04, 2010, 7:10AM
Dear Mr. President:
As you visit us today for the third time since the Deepwater Horizon started gushing oil into the Gulf of Mexico, the people of Louisiana have questions that must be answered.
We're already reeling from the loss of thousands of fishing industry jobs. We now could see an estimated 20,000 oil-services jobs vanish due to your six-month federal moratorium on deepwater exploratory drilling. That could do even greater damage to the economy than the well-chronicled fishing industry losses.
Louisianians understand the imperative for improved safety on drilling rigs. The carelessness that caused the disaster, the fumbling response by industry and government, and the damage to our waters and our coast must never recur, here or elsewhere.
But we need to know what you are prepared to do to prevent catastrophic damage to our battered economy.
It is not clear, Mr. President, why it will take six months to determine what went wrong on Deepwater Horizon and how to remedy safety deficiencies. The joint hearing by the Coast Guard and the Minerals Management Service already has highlighted several existing tests and safety procedures that might have prevented the blowout. There have already been nearly a dozen oil spill-related hearings on Capitol Hill.
In announcing the mission of the White House oil spill commission this week, you said, "We owe all those who've been harmed, as well as future generations, a full and vigorous accounting of the events that led to what has become the worst oil spill in U.S. history." Fair enough, but the commission's work must be focused and efficient. And the panel ought to include a resident of Louisiana, with firsthand knowledge of our economy.
We also need to know, Mr. President, whether you support legislation to give Gulf states our rightful share of offshore oil revenues now instead of in 2017. These are vital resources for our imperiled coast. During your visit last week, you did not publicly take questions from Louisianians. A local reporter's question about the revenue-sharing proposal earned a "we'll get back to you"-response from a White House spokesman. There was no followup.
Your visit is appreciated, Mr. President. But visiting Louisiana is not the same as listening to us and answering our questions.
When you were here on May 1 you talked about the possibility that the oil gushing from BP's well could "jeopardize the livelihoods of thousands of Americans who call this place home." It is doing exactly that. Now we need you to keep the damage from getting any worse.
Much has been written about American's loss of confidence in their government and about the disaster's collateral damage to your administration. But ultimately, the administration will be judged on what is within its power, including your ability to assess the physical and economic damage to our communities and to ease their suffering.
I just saw a report and they have oil in Gulf Shores, AL too.
"Cleanup crews were nowhere to be seen at the public beach."
Why does BP and Federal & State government not have people lined up to do something? There are millions without work that I'm sure would be more than happy to help with the cleanup. I guess the current approach is to let it ruin the beaches, kill off wildlife, and worry about cleaning it all up later.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LA...SWRN MS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041142Z - 041345Z
TSTMS AHEAD OF MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS...AND BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. POTENTIAL
MAY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING AS SFC
DIABATIC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION REDUCE CINH OVER
BROADER AREA INLAND.
AT 11Z...REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS AND SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
CONVERGENCE LINE ARCHING FROM RAPIDES-VERMILION PARISHES THEN SWWD
ACROSS GULF. THIS REPRESENTS ZONE OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
AHEAD OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER SE TX. BKN BAND OF TSTMS
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS LINE AND IS STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NARROW WEDGE OF MARINE-SECTOR AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPS UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S F AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S INLAND. WIDELY
SCATTERED AND RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTION ALSO IS INCREASING
AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. THETAE ADVECTION FROM GULF SHOULD
RESULT IN NET INLAND/NEWD EXPANSION OF MARINE AIR AHEAD OF
CONVERGENCE LINE...AND COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING DIABATIC SFC
HEATING THROUGH 18Z. NET RESULT SHOULD BE MLCAPE GROWING TO
2000-2500 J/KG RANGE...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...AMIDST
30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN SFC-3 KM
WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME ENHANCEMENT TO HODOGRAPHS...CONTRIBUTING TO
EFFECTIVE SRH 200-300 J/KG AS WELL.
..EDWARDS.. 06/04/2010
Link
From the stories I have read... the public beaches will be the last to be cleaned... as they are the easiest.
so sad..it just makes you sick...and lord only knows what it's like under the water...marine life is so screwed..
Link
Quoting CaneWarning:
This is the saddest part of a story I just read...
"Cleanup crews were nowhere to be seen at the public beach."
Why does BP and Federal & State government not have people lined up to do something? There are millions without work that I'm sure would be more than happy to help with the cleanup. I guess the current approach is to let it ruin the beaches, kill off wildlife, and worry about cleaning it all up later.
From the stories I have read... the public beaches will be the last to be cleaned... as they are the easiest.
this is true as sad as it is...i've already taken the hazwoper class and for the time being they are more worried about the marshlands 1st then the beach will be next...for example we know it's going into mobile bay so i'm sure that will be the 1st are to try and clean..
Viewing: 2151 - 2201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 — Blog Index