92L very disorganized, but a long-range threat to develop
Invest 92L, which yesterday became severely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, is generating a large area of rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today. Infrared satellite loops show that the tops of the thunderstorms associated with 92L have warmed in recent hours, and these thunderstorms are weak and disorganized. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry air in the storm's environment, and this dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the dry air is sinking to the surface and creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. With wind shear at 20 - 30 knots today, no signs of a surface circulation, and plenty of dry air around, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put the chances at 1%. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on. Antigua recorded sustaiined winds of 20 mph this morning from 92L.
A slight chance 92L could develop next week
Today and Saturday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. These factors should significantly disrupt the disturbance. If there's anything left of 92L by Sunday, when it will be over eastern Cuba, the storm may have the opportunity to develop. At that time, 92L will have passed through the core of the subtropical jet stream and entered a region of lower shear (15 - 20 knots.) For the latest round of 00Z and 06Z model runs, the HWRF is the only reliable model calling for 92L to develop; that model predicts that 92L will organize into a tropical depression on Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, and head into the Gulf of Mexico. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to do this are great, and I give 92L just a 10% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday next week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the more dense dry air creates downdrafts. When these downdrafts hit the surface, the air spreads out creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. This puts stable air into the storm's low level environment and blocks inflow of moist air into the core of the storm, weakening it. These arc clouds are a telltale sign that dry air is significantly disrupting the disturbance.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a tropical disturbance to form off the coast of Nicaragua on Monday and push ashore over that country on Tuesday, bringing heavy rains.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Saturday, which will maintain a threat of oil hitting beaches as far east as Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's new interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have an update on Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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But TSArlene was an outlier; HurricaneSeason really fired up with TSBret 17days later.
Comparisons with the day before TropicalStorm Bret began spinning on 28June2005
17Jun2010
27Jun2005
17June2010
27Jun2005
17June2010
"[BritishPetroleum]'s well in the Gulf of Mexico is gushing[...]from 35,000 to 60,000 barrels a day, Energy Secretary Stephen Chu and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said today [15June2010]..."
Cutting the BlowoutPreventer riser on June1st increased the post-cut flow-rate up to 120% or 6/5ths of the pre-cut flow rate. Conversely, that means at least 5/6ths of the post-cut flow rate equals the pre-cut flow rate of 29,166to50,000barrels per day. 100% spilled into the Gulf from the time of the DeepwaterHorizon explosion&blowout at 9:45pm,20April2010 through 6June2010.
The ExxonValdez spilled 11million gallons.
At the pre-cut minimum spill rate of 29,166barrels per day (1,225,000gallons per day), the DeepwaterHorizon had been spilling one ExxonValdez per 8days23hours30minutes37seconds.
By 7:18pm,4June2010, the DeepwaterHorizon had spilled a minimum of FIVE ExxonValdezes.
It then spilled 58,333barrels*(2,450,000gallons) toward the next ExxonValdez in the following two days before BritishPetroleum began collecting 15,000barrels per day. The post-cut minimum flow rate minus the current collection rate equals the new minimum spill rate of 20,000barrels per day (840,000gallons per day). In the 10days4hours17minutes between 7:18pm,6June and 11:35pm,16June, the DeepwaterHorizon spill had increased to a minimum of SIX ExxonValdezes.
And there'll be one more ExxonValdez added to the spill every 13days2hours17minutes9seconds thereafter, until new ships arrive to increase the amount collected.
* These are minimums, "But guess what? Godzilla tromping through Tokyo is bad enough."
For a fuller explanation of how I arrived at those minimums, see blog1508post7.
Sooo...given how stubborn this thing has been, there's a decent chance!
the gulf is a beautiful place, and this spill is horrible...but land interaction with haiti/dr would surely brings flooding/landslides...causing many deaths...that is not a better scenario...
how about a harmless naked swirl ftw? ...
Floater back on 92L.
IRLoop
I'm not sure that will happen either. I just don't want it in the Gulf.
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
It looks like we will get rain from this system here in the TCI
CRS
Its been a very disorganized wave now for about 2 days. Slim chance at redevelopment.
Sure... make me go look up big words... on only two cups of coffee....
at this point you have to hope to keep the damage/affected area to a minimum...
storm surge is not our friend right now...
I am more worried about a Cat 2-3 in the gulf... hitting that oil. You could have oil over everything... 10 miles in land.
exactly why i said surge is not our friend...anything over cat 1 will move oil inland...when i say weak, i mean cat 1 or less moving slow to chop up the water...
the gulf has had spills before, as well as other parts of the world...mother nature can help sometimes...other times she just likes to make things worse...lol
I recall our blogs yesterday when I asked about the sheer affecting 92L as related to the location of the TUTT but I can't locate any chart right now indicating the position of the subtropical jet......Thanks.
Your correct
AL, 92, 2010061618, , BEST, 0, 148N, 521W, 25, 1011, DB,
AL, 92, 2010061700, , BEST, 0, 151N, 537W, 25, 1012, DB,
AL, 92, 2010061706, , BEST, 0, 155N, 554W, 25, 1013, WV,
AL, 92, 2010061712, , BEST, 0, 158N, 572W, 25, 1013, WV,
AL, 92, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 583W, 25, 1012, WV,
AL, 92, 2010061800, , BEST, 0, 161N, 593W, 25, 1011, WV,
AL, 92, 2010061806, , BEST, 0, 161N, 606W, 25, 1011, WV,
AL, 92, 2010061812, , BEST, 0, 161N, 622W, 25, 1011, WV,
92L is a true indication that conditions are over prime in the Tropical Atlantic. Shear is the exception and is fully expected this time of year.
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