92L very disorganized, but a long-range threat to develop
Invest 92L, which yesterday became severely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, is generating a large area of rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today. Infrared satellite loops show that the tops of the thunderstorms associated with 92L have warmed in recent hours, and these thunderstorms are weak and disorganized. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry air in the storm's environment, and this dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the dry air is sinking to the surface and creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. With wind shear at 20 - 30 knots today, no signs of a surface circulation, and plenty of dry air around, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put the chances at 1%. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on. Antigua recorded sustaiined winds of 20 mph this morning from 92L.
A slight chance 92L could develop next week
Today and Saturday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. These factors should significantly disrupt the disturbance. If there's anything left of 92L by Sunday, when it will be over eastern Cuba, the storm may have the opportunity to develop. At that time, 92L will have passed through the core of the subtropical jet stream and entered a region of lower shear (15 - 20 knots.) For the latest round of 00Z and 06Z model runs, the HWRF is the only reliable model calling for 92L to develop; that model predicts that 92L will organize into a tropical depression on Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, and head into the Gulf of Mexico. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to do this are great, and I give 92L just a 10% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday next week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the more dense dry air creates downdrafts. When these downdrafts hit the surface, the air spreads out creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. This puts stable air into the storm's low level environment and blocks inflow of moist air into the core of the storm, weakening it. These arc clouds are a telltale sign that dry air is significantly disrupting the disturbance.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a tropical disturbance to form off the coast of Nicaragua on Monday and push ashore over that country on Tuesday, bringing heavy rains.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Saturday, which will maintain a threat of oil hitting beaches as far east as Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's new interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have an update on Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yes same echo had hurricane force winds over me, I got lucky though, as there was a break in the straight line winds right over me. In downtown Chicago 300,000 customers lost power and skyscrapers windows were blown out.
Don't see anything rotating in that pic now at least.
It's looking pretty good again. Don't we go through this every night?
Not seeing it (rotation). But I dont have The Trained Eye.
That's a darn big circle 09! Is all of that really the invest?
Are you looking near Uganda and Kenya?
That's iodide! LOL
You know, 92L is a Nocturnal Beast.....
The Invest 94E is shown at post 1466.
San Juan, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI
it is very Jekyll and Hyde, isn't it?
Jabberwockies and what-not...
San Juan, Base Radial Velocity 1.00 Degree Elevation Range 48 NMI
You ditched me in chat, WTH lol
Hard to know with a full disk image.
This is better..
Go enjoy the beach while you can. I went out to Clearwater Beach again today. Sand Key just won't be the same with oil all over it.
I have a friend in Chicago and he lost power with the first one. He still hasn't gotten it back.
217
WUUS53 KLOT 190201
SVRLOT
ILC031-043-063-089-091-093-097-099-105-111-197-190300-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0052.100619T0201Z-100619T0300Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
901 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
* AT 857 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SPRING GROVE TO ELBURN TO
SERENA TO GRANVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
WENONA...YORKVILLE...WAYNE AND VENETIAN VILLAGE AROUND 910 PM CDT.
WADSWORTH...WEST CHICAGO...THIRD LAKE AND STREAMWOOD AROUND 915 PM
CDT.
BEACH PARK...ZION...WINFIELD AND WHEATON AROUND 920 PM CDT.
WOOD DALE...WHEELING AND STREATOR AROUND 925 PM CDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
LOSTANT...SOUTH BARRINGTON...ROUND LAKE PARK...ROUND LAKE BEACH...
NORTH BARRINGTON...LAKE BARRINGTON...HAINESVILLE...RUTLAND...LEONORE
AND OLD MILL CREEK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Got some distant relatives between Peoria and Daniville. Hopefully they'll be fine.
:):)
Mesoscale Discussion 1014
MD 1014 graphic
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN IA TO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 190038Z - 190215Z
TORNADO WATCH 343 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...AND LOCALLY EXTENDED SEVERE
TSTM WATCH 342 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
COORDINATED BETWEEN 0100-0130Z FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IA/FAR
NORTHERN MO AND MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. DAMAGING WINDS
/POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD/ AND SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS.
UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT IS DECIDEDLY UNDERWAY ACROSS
EASTERN IL/NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN IA THIS EVENING...WITH A 55 KT
GUST RECENTLY MEASURED /0020Z/ AT DAVENPORT IA. SOME TORNADO THREAT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/PERHAPS SOUTHEAST IA MAINLY IN
THE SHORT TERM...BUT AN OVERALL CONGEALING TREND/FURTHER UPSCALE MCS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE DOMINANT SCENARIO THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
MCS-DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY RECOVER ACROSS
NORTHERN IL IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER DERECHO. A STRONG RESERVOIR
OF INSTABILITY OTHERWISE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN
MO/CENTRAL IL...WITH THE 00Z LINCOLN OBSERVED RAOB INDICATIVE OF
4000+ J/KG MUCAPE VIA STEEP 7.6 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT /15.9 G PER KG MEAN MIXING RATIO/. AIDED BY A
MODESTLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET /35 KT/ ACROSS
NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN IL THIS EVENING...LATEST THINKING IS A
CORRIDOR OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM ALONG/NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
IA/NORTH-CENTRAL IL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTHWARD TO THE I-80/I-88
CORRIDORS OF FAR EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL.
..GUYER.. 06/19/2010
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