92L very disorganized, but a long-range threat to develop
Invest 92L, which yesterday became severely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, is generating a large area of rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today. Infrared satellite loops show that the tops of the thunderstorms associated with 92L have warmed in recent hours, and these thunderstorms are weak and disorganized. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry air in the storm's environment, and this dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the dry air is sinking to the surface and creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. With wind shear at 20 - 30 knots today, no signs of a surface circulation, and plenty of dry air around, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put the chances at 1%. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on. Antigua recorded sustaiined winds of 20 mph this morning from 92L.
A slight chance 92L could develop next week
Today and Saturday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. These factors should significantly disrupt the disturbance. If there's anything left of 92L by Sunday, when it will be over eastern Cuba, the storm may have the opportunity to develop. At that time, 92L will have passed through the core of the subtropical jet stream and entered a region of lower shear (15 - 20 knots.) For the latest round of 00Z and 06Z model runs, the HWRF is the only reliable model calling for 92L to develop; that model predicts that 92L will organize into a tropical depression on Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, and head into the Gulf of Mexico. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to do this are great, and I give 92L just a 10% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday next week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the more dense dry air creates downdrafts. When these downdrafts hit the surface, the air spreads out creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. This puts stable air into the storm's low level environment and blocks inflow of moist air into the core of the storm, weakening it. These arc clouds are a telltale sign that dry air is significantly disrupting the disturbance.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a tropical disturbance to form off the coast of Nicaragua on Monday and push ashore over that country on Tuesday, bringing heavy rains.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Saturday, which will maintain a threat of oil hitting beaches as far east as Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's new interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have an update on Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Oh my 80 dbz max, that is a serious storm. Usually a normal heavy rain event can go up to about 40-60. You need a LOT lightning (cloud to ground or not) to get it up to 80 dbz.
Chicago web-cam
where exactly are you looking?...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Mexico
They seem to be weakening, but as I said I might see an Anticyclonic tornado there but not sure. In the past Anticyclonic tornadoes usually accompany these weakening derechos or fast moving storms. Take for instance the West Bend Tornado an F4 anticyclonic one.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
856 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010
...POSSIBLY GREATER THAN EF3 DAMAGE IN GRAND FORKS COUNTY...
A HOUSE WAS TOTALLY DESTROYED WITH ONLY A CONCRETE FOUNDATION
LEFT ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF THOMPSON NORTH DAKOTA IN GRAND FORKS
COUNTY. DEBRIS FROM THE HOUSE WAS SCATTERED AND THERE WERE MANY
DOWNED TREES. A FLAGPOLE WITH A CONCRETE FOUNDATION WAS THROWN
FROM THE FRONT YARD TO NEAR THE FRONT OF THE HOUSE. A METAL
FOLDING CHAIR WAS ALSO IMPALED HALF WAY INTO A TREE.
INITIAL DAMAGE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT POSSIBLY GREATER THAN EF3
DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH THIS TORNADO. ADDITIONAL INVESTIGATION INTO
THE DAMAGE AND CONCURRENT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CONDUCTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A FINAL EF SCALE RATING WILL BE PRESENTED
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE INITIAL PATH LENGTH ESTIMATE FOR THE TORNADO IS ABOUT 13 MILES
AND THE TORNADO WAS ABOUT 150 YARDS WIDE.
"Possibly" greater than EF3 damage? Gee, ya think? Personally, I think they suspect it may have been EF5 but they want to make sure of it before issuing that rating.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010
DISCUSSION FROM JUN 18/0000 UTC. AT MID/UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN USA.
THE MODELS SHOW THIS AXIS BUILDING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA THROUGH 36-48 HRS... THEN FORECAST IT TO
DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO/TEXAS BY 72-84 HRS.
A TUTT LOW INITIALIZED OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL SPLIT INTO TWO
PARTS. ONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CAMPECHE
SOUND/YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 24-36 HRS AND CONTINUE WEST INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO/GUANAJUATO BY 72/84 HRS WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE TUTT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY 36-48 HRS. THIS TUTT LOW WILL THEN MOVE LITTLE BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE CYCLE. OVER THE BAHAMAS EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH 05-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY.
MPH: 136–165
Km/h: 219–266
Relative frequency: 3.4%
Damage: Severe damage.
Entire stories of well-constructed houses destroyed; severe damage to large buildings such as shopping malls; trains overturned; trees debarked; heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown; structures with weak foundations blown away some distance.
But the oil and dispersants are in a very small area, concentrated as well.
As I said, a Disaster....
but not for the Gulf of Mexico.
Well its moving over me now, i'll let you guys no if I die.
...But seriously its not very pretty here...
Whaaaa?!?! If I saw that I'd start spreading the holy water!! While likly not a EF5 it certianly would be a EF4..
did u die?
Most of the Islands are quite hilly, some very tall.
The danger is not from "flooding" as much as from "flash floods" which come raging down small valleys which have large catchment areas.
Very destructive and dangerous.
There were some in the US this past week...
Not yet
Yikes! Hang in there.
What the giminy crickets are you talking about
Think i'll try to get some pictures real quick brb
But we saw a PinHead Ear just a while ago....
Reed Timmer intercepted the Wadena, MN tornado, but this is a different one. Unbelievable. The Wadena storm sounded like a potentially violent-rated one as well. Nasty, nasty outbreak.
WAIT!!!!! do you have life insurance?
Heck of a sales pitch :)
That was said 4 days ago, 3 days ago, two days ago, yesterday. For some reason, ppl think a storm is unworthy of being studied if it isn't going to hit land.
Yeah, I went to Orlando and got stuck there.
LOL, "dont die 'till you sign here! Quick!!"
A riddle I learned was this. 10 inches in 3 hours causes longer term problems than 10 inches in 10 hours.
Wait - your name is Barb? hcubed
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W FROM 4N-13N ACROSS PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE LIES E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT ENHANCING THE CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FARTHER NW FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 81W-87W AFFECTING MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
For the Cayman Islands, so close and yet so far...Don't think they've gotten a good soaker yet!
Yeah! Marching in the rain in Fyzabad!
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