92L very disorganized, but a long-range threat to develop
Invest 92L, which yesterday became severely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, is generating a large area of rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today. Infrared satellite loops show that the tops of the thunderstorms associated with 92L have warmed in recent hours, and these thunderstorms are weak and disorganized. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry air in the storm's environment, and this dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the dry air is sinking to the surface and creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. With wind shear at 20 - 30 knots today, no signs of a surface circulation, and plenty of dry air around, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put the chances at 1%. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on. Antigua recorded sustaiined winds of 20 mph this morning from 92L.
A slight chance 92L could develop next week
Today and Saturday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. These factors should significantly disrupt the disturbance. If there's anything left of 92L by Sunday, when it will be over eastern Cuba, the storm may have the opportunity to develop. At that time, 92L will have passed through the core of the subtropical jet stream and entered a region of lower shear (15 - 20 knots.) For the latest round of 00Z and 06Z model runs, the HWRF is the only reliable model calling for 92L to develop; that model predicts that 92L will organize into a tropical depression on Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, and head into the Gulf of Mexico. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to do this are great, and I give 92L just a 10% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday next week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the more dense dry air creates downdrafts. When these downdrafts hit the surface, the air spreads out creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. This puts stable air into the storm's low level environment and blocks inflow of moist air into the core of the storm, weakening it. These arc clouds are a telltale sign that dry air is significantly disrupting the disturbance.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a tropical disturbance to form off the coast of Nicaragua on Monday and push ashore over that country on Tuesday, bringing heavy rains.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Saturday, which will maintain a threat of oil hitting beaches as far east as Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's new interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have an update on Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yeah! Marching in the rain in Fyzabad!
Me thinks it will weaken by the time it gets to you, but wow its like a torrential downpour here. Thankfully wind seems to be less then the earlier storm.
That's funny, my wife said that 10 in....oh nevermind.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
THIS CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
I know that to be factual....
Night. :)
#1)Obama has authorized the deployment of more than 17,000 National Guard members along the Gulf coast to be used “as needed” by state governors. So what are all of these National Guard troops going to be doing exactly? Are the troops going to be used to stop the oil or to control the public?
#2)Because it is so incredibly toxic, the UK’s Marine Management Organization has completely banned Corexit 9500, so if there was a major oil spill in the UK’s North Sea, BP would not be able to use it. So why is BP being allowed to use Corexit 9500 in the Gulf of Mexico?
#3) It is being reported Corexit 9500 is lethal to 50% of fish exposed to it within 96 hours. 1 gallon of Corexit mixture is capable of rendering 383,141 gallons of water highly toxic to fish. So why was BP allowed to dump 1,021,000 gallons of Corexit 9500 and Corexit 9527 into the Gulf of Mexico, and why aren’t they being stopped from dumping another 805,000 gallons of these dispersants that they have on order into the Gulf?
#4) If these dispersants are so incredibly toxic to fish, what are they going to do to crops? What are they going to do to people?
#5) Why is BP being allowed to use private security contractors to keep the American people away from the oil cleanup sites? Why are they hiring locals for 2 grand a day, taking pictures with them, then not allowing them to enter the water to help clean?
#6) Why has the FAA shut down the airspace above the Gulf of Mexico oil spill? What don’t they want the American people to see?
#7) It is being reported that the deepsea oil plumes are creating huge “dead zones” where all creatures are dying as they are deprived of oxygen. If this oil spill continues to grow could the vast majority of the Gulf of Mexico become one gigantic “dead zone”?
#8) Senator Bill Nelson of Florida says that there are reports that there are additional ruptures in the sea floor from which oil is leaking. If there are quite a few of these additional ruptures, then how in the world does BP expect to completely stop this oil leak?
#9) At some testing stations in the Gulf of Mexico, levels of benzene have been detected at over 3000 parts per billion, and levels of hydrogen sulfide have been detected as high as 1192 parts per billion. Considering that these levels would be highly toxic to humans, why hasn’t the general public been warned? My family lives in New Iberia, LA where the benzine levels are currently dangerously high, at least that is what I've read on the internet, but there are no "official" warnings or reports. Does my family need to leave?? If they stay, are they going to be portrayed in History books as the Louisianians kept in the dark by the government while being poisoned by the oil spill?
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MI...IN...OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344...
VALID 190321Z - 190415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344
CONTINUES.
WATCH 344 MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME SWRN MI
AND NRN IND TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE WHICH SHOULD MOVE
INTO THESE AREAS AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AS AIRMASS HAS
STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING MCS/BOW.
..CARBIN.. 06/19/2010
Homewood, IL just south of Chicago...
I had a friend in Punta Gorda and went down and helped him sort through what was left of his house. Tampa was very lucky.
In Trinidad, 11n 61w--
Winds - calm
Pressure- 1012
Cloudy. No rain. No wind.
But coming soon....
Stay safe! Is it finished (your basement)?
wind shear shift northward & you know what's gonna happen
Windsat @ 21:44 UTC today
Pretty much, but the rain is falling at an amazing rate, the actual "storm" was bad but not as bad as the earlier one. Lots of CG lightning though, but winds were minimal.
no i read it online, but i have been wondering about the dispersants, the guard, and the airspace. i thought the benzene levels were just rumors, but I'm starting to think it might be true.
SUMP PUMP!!!!!!!!!
Is your basement finished?
I don't even remember Charley occurring at all. I live In extreme North eastern Dade County. I was a small storm but I don't even remember hearing about it. Guess it was before I got into this stuff.
Ahh the basement, is partially finished... thankfully the flooding is in the unfinished part. There is an emergency release drain here, I crank a lever and some old vent opens up. It helps, thankfully the computer is in the finished part... so I can kinda oversee the flooding from here.
What's doing what ?
I heard that Corexit is produced by a subsidiary company of BP.
But I have not confirmed that..
There is a weakness in the AB High over the SE US (In the general vicinity of FL), depending on the strength of the storm it is possible for it to move into that weakness in the ridge.
Well that's good! Your basement, house, and safety take way more precedent than the blog. However, we appreciate your willingness to share what is happening. Hopefully things calm down and it is a nice dry day tomorrow.
Quite possible. Look at the Windsat I posted at 1666. Nogaps has a system moving inland Nicaragua on Sunday from there.
Yeah! But I am out of the picture, to the west a little.
lol I live on high elevation, no sump pump just a really old drain that seems to be helping for now.
Shear
Not everything on the internet is true. Where did you find it?
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