92L very disorganized, but a long-range threat to develop
Invest 92L, which yesterday became severely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, is generating a large area of rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today. Infrared satellite loops show that the tops of the thunderstorms associated with 92L have warmed in recent hours, and these thunderstorms are weak and disorganized. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry air in the storm's environment, and this dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the dry air is sinking to the surface and creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. With wind shear at 20 - 30 knots today, no signs of a surface circulation, and plenty of dry air around, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put the chances at 1%. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on. Antigua recorded sustaiined winds of 20 mph this morning from 92L.
A slight chance 92L could develop next week
Today and Saturday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. These factors should significantly disrupt the disturbance. If there's anything left of 92L by Sunday, when it will be over eastern Cuba, the storm may have the opportunity to develop. At that time, 92L will have passed through the core of the subtropical jet stream and entered a region of lower shear (15 - 20 knots.) For the latest round of 00Z and 06Z model runs, the HWRF is the only reliable model calling for 92L to develop; that model predicts that 92L will organize into a tropical depression on Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, and head into the Gulf of Mexico. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to do this are great, and I give 92L just a 10% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday next week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the more dense dry air creates downdrafts. When these downdrafts hit the surface, the air spreads out creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. This puts stable air into the storm's low level environment and blocks inflow of moist air into the core of the storm, weakening it. These arc clouds are a telltale sign that dry air is significantly disrupting the disturbance.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a tropical disturbance to form off the coast of Nicaragua on Monday and push ashore over that country on Tuesday, bringing heavy rains.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Saturday, which will maintain a threat of oil hitting beaches as far east as Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's new interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have an update on Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Take a look at this map. Shear is building TO the West, not from the West. There is a TUTT axis that is retreating to the SW over the Yucatan that is increasing the shear towards to NW Caribbean. Once it moves out of the way shear will fall off.
Look at the SE Caribbean. Shear is relaxing there and FALLING. What we have going on is falling shear from the Eastern Caribbean that is trailing rising shear that is retreating Westward.
If 92L wins then a TD is possible assuming it avoids Hispaniola. Let's see if it makes it that far first before looking too far ahead.
These are serious considerations.
But you need to try to find some Truths about the situation before you stress yourself.
You live in a place where the Truth will come out soon, regarding the risks of remaining there, health wise. The challenge is to identify the Doom-Hype and dismiss that if you can.
As for the economy of the area, you are probably better placed than many to detirmine that.
Link
Link
and what's the deal with national guard. is there really some gas bubble beneath the surface that's eventually going to blow? are we going to need to be evacuated for this? also the whole nuclear warhead thing being the only way to stop the darn gusher is frightening. this i know for a fact is one the options on the table as we speak. are the going to evacuate us to plug it up with a nuke. i don't know, maybe i'm just tired, but it all freaks me out, way more than any hurricane ever did.
Night.
Good night all
yeah, you are right. i know a few people in the rig business, one who is in charge of safety inspections on rigs - go figure. i'll try to get to truth of the matter from those who are really down there.
You don't know me well enough. So far my call on 92L has been validated. That's not bias, just reality.
He's not a downcaster, he's right? If you look back at the index of 92L it's been an open wave for well, now 3 days.
Thunder to my East!
It is after midnight. Tomorrow (Today!) is Labour Day (I have to work- is there something wrong with that concept?)
See you all another time...
At the top of the page click on settings. Once that opens go to page preferences, select the time zone for where you are and save it.
thanks
Spoken like a true tropics survivor. Lol. We're superstition around here too. I painted a wall this year so I may as well just go ahead and put a tree through the room. (Every time I paint or decorate we get a hurricane.) Ah well. Maybe Mother Nature won't begrudge me my little nest this time. Maybe if we get through this season unscathed I can change my WU handle. Nah. That would be too cocky of me. Am knocking on wood as I write this.
Kman = Wisdom
Listening and paying attention would also be wise.
Stronger on this run hitting around Pensacola
Louisiana State Quarter
The total gross state product in 2005 for Louisiana was US$168 billion, placing it 24th in the nation. Its per capita personal income is $30,952, ranking 41st in the United States.[37]
The state's principal agricultural products include seafood (it is the biggest producer of crawfish in the world, supplying approximately 90%), cotton, soybeans, cattle, sugarcane, poultry and eggs, dairy products, and rice. The seafood industry directly supports an estimated 16,000 jobs.[38] Industry generates chemical products, petroleum and coal products, processed foods and transportation equipment, and paper products. Tourism is an important element in the economy, especially in the New Orleans area.
The Port of South Louisiana, located on the Mississippi between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, is the largest volume shipping port in the Western Hemisphere and 4th largest in the world, as well as the largest bulk cargo port in the world.[39]
New Orleans and Shreveport are also home to a thriving film industry.[40] State financial incentives and aggressive promotion have put the local film industry on a fast track. In late 2007 and early 2008, a 300,000-square-foot (28,000 m2) film studio was scheduled to open in Treme, with state-of-the-art production facilities, and a film training institute.[41] Tabasco sauce, which is marketed by one of the United States' biggest producers of hot sauce, the McIlhenny Company, originated on Avery Island.[42]
Louisiana has three personal income tax brackets, ranging from 2% to 6%. The sales tax rate is 4%: a 3.97% Louisiana sales tax and a .03% Louisiana Tourism Promotion District sales tax. Political subdivisions also levy their own sales tax in addition to the state fees. The state also has a use tax, which includes 4% to be distributed by the Department of Revenue to local governments. Property taxes are assessed and collected at the local level. Louisiana is a subsidized state, receiving $1.44 from the federal government for every dollar paid in.
Tourism and culture are major players in Louisiana's economy, earning an estimated $5.2 billion per year.[43] Louisiana also hosts many important cultural events, such as the World Cultural Economic Forum, which is held annually in the fall at the New Orleans Morial Convention Center.[44]
As of January 2010, the states unemployment rate is 7.4%. An African American is three times as likely as white person to be unemployed in Louisiana.
Louisiana taxpayers receive more federal funding per dollar of federal taxes paid compared to the average state. Per dollar of federal tax collected in 2005, Louisiana citizens received approximately $1.78 in the way of federal spending. This ranks the state 4th highest nationally and represents a rise from 1995 when Louisiana received $1.35 per dollar of taxes in federal spending (ranked 7th nationally). Neighboring states and the amount of federal spending received per dollar of federal tax collected were: Texas ($0.94), Arkansas ($1.41), and Mississippi ($2.02). Federal spending in 2005 and subsequent years since has been exceptionally high due to the recovery from Hurricane Katrina. Tax Foundation
Energy
Louisiana is rich in petroleum and natural gas. Petroleum and gas deposits are found in abundance both onshore and offshore in State-owned waters. In addition, vast petroleum and natural gas reserves are found offshore from Louisiana in the federally administered Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) in the Gulf of Mexico. According to the Energy Information Administration, the Gulf of Mexico OCS is the largest U.S. petroleum-producing region. Excluding the Gulf of Mexico OCS, Louisiana ranks fourth in petroleum production and is home to about 2 percent of total U.S. petroleum reserves. One third of the oil produced in the United States comes from offshore, and 80% of offshore production comes from deep water off Louisiana. The oil industry employs about 58,000 Louisiana residents and has created another 260,000 oil-related jobs, accounting for about 17% of all Louisiana jobs.
Louisiana's natural gas reserves account for about 5 percent of the U.S. total. The recent discovery of the Haynesville Shale formation in parts of or all of Caddo, Bossier, Bienville, Sabine, De Soto, Red River, Sabine, and Natchitoches parishes have made it the world's fourth largest gas field with some wells initially producing over 25 million cubic feet of gas daily.[48]
The oil slick just off the Louisiana coast on April 30, 2010. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill is now considered the biggest environmental disaster in U.S. history.
Louisiana was the first site of petroleum drilling over water in the world, on Caddo Lake in the northwest corner of the state. The petroleum and gas industry, as well as its subsidiary industries such as transport and refining, have dominated Louisiana's economy since the 1940s. Beginning in 1950, Louisiana was sued several times by the U.S. Interior Department, in efforts by the federal government to strip Louisiana of its submerged land property rights. These control vast stores of reservoirs of petroleum and natural gas.
When petroleum and gas boomed in the 1970s, so did Louisiana's economy. Likewise, when the petroleum and gas crash occurred in the 1980s, in large part due to monetary policy set by the Federal Reserve, Louisiana real estate, savings and loans, and local banks fell rapidly in value.[citation needed] The Louisiana economy as well as its politics of the last half-century cannot be understood without thoroughly accounting for the influence of the petroleum and gas industries. Since the 1980s, these industries' headquarters have consolidated in Houston, but many of the jobs that operate or provide logistical support to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude-oil-and-gas industry remained in Louisiana as of 2010.
[edit] Law and government
thanks in advance
Long range, but something to keep an eye on
how strong?
I think it would've been a lot scarier than it's been so far. Kinda makes you scared to think what a system will do without the shear. If they all prove to be as tenacious as 91l it's going to be a long scary season.
Forecasts for Louisiana — Return to U.S. Severe Weather
Current Severe Weather
Heat Advisory
Statement as of 9:05 PM CDT on June 18, 2010
... Heat advisory remains in effect until 7 PM CDT Saturday...
A heat advisory remains in effect until 7 PM CDT Saturday.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
The heat index is a measure of how hot it feels when the effects of humidity are combined with the temperature.
A heat index of 105 degrees is considered the level where many people begin to experience extreme discomfort or physical stress.
The heat index is measured under shady conditions... and direct exposure to
sunlight can increase the heat index as much as 15 degrees.
A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected.
The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible.
Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned room... stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Good, Centex. Kman is one of the better prognosticators on this blog, followed him for years. It's not a perfect science - he nor anyone else here including Doc is perfect either. Kman is only relating what his experience and convictions are. Doesn't mean he is right all the time, but usually he's not far away from what's actually happening. Bias? Absolutely not.
92L is a mess. Persistent? Yes. Will it re-emerge - there is still that possibility. The tropics can be very strange sometimes. But, you'll not get wild guessing, hype or innuendo from Kman, rather an observant, experienced and thoughtful perspective.
I don/t know about 92l being around. But I saw this earlier. I assume the shear will be lessening as the TUTT does.
FXCA20 KWBC 181829
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010
DISCUSSION FROM JUN 18/0000 UTC. AT MID/UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN USA.
THE MODELS SHOW THIS AXIS BUILDING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA THROUGH 36-48 HRS... THEN FORECAST IT TO
DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO/TEXAS BY 72-84 HRS.
A TUTT LOW INITIALIZED OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL SPLIT INTO TWO
PARTS. ONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CAMPECHE
SOUND/YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 24-36 HRS AND CONTINUE WEST INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO/GUANAJUATO BY 72/84 HRS WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE TUTT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY 36-48 HRS. THIS TUTT LOW WILL THEN MOVE LITTLE BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE CYCLE. OVER THE BAHAMAS EXPECT
SCATTERED CO
The one guy that says there is a gas bubble believes we aren't going back to the moon cause the Nazis are already living there. He's full of beyond out there ideas. I listened to the radio show. He said the govt has the real accurate gps info & doesn't share it with us. You can go to USGS & find out in inches what the yellowstone cauldra is up to. & how about GRACE? Even his thoughts on the topography of FL was so far from reality..& he's the only source about this bubble.
Pretty sure you want to get into my settings to change your time zone.... I like to think we all live in GMT when we come here.
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