92L very disorganized, but a long-range threat to develop
Invest 92L, which yesterday became severely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, is generating a large area of rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today. Infrared satellite loops show that the tops of the thunderstorms associated with 92L have warmed in recent hours, and these thunderstorms are weak and disorganized. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry air in the storm's environment, and this dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the dry air is sinking to the surface and creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. With wind shear at 20 - 30 knots today, no signs of a surface circulation, and plenty of dry air around, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put the chances at 1%. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on. Antigua recorded sustaiined winds of 20 mph this morning from 92L.
A slight chance 92L could develop next week
Today and Saturday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. These factors should significantly disrupt the disturbance. If there's anything left of 92L by Sunday, when it will be over eastern Cuba, the storm may have the opportunity to develop. At that time, 92L will have passed through the core of the subtropical jet stream and entered a region of lower shear (15 - 20 knots.) For the latest round of 00Z and 06Z model runs, the HWRF is the only reliable model calling for 92L to develop; that model predicts that 92L will organize into a tropical depression on Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, and head into the Gulf of Mexico. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to do this are great, and I give 92L just a 10% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday next week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the more dense dry air creates downdrafts. When these downdrafts hit the surface, the air spreads out creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. This puts stable air into the storm's low level environment and blocks inflow of moist air into the core of the storm, weakening it. These arc clouds are a telltale sign that dry air is significantly disrupting the disturbance.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a tropical disturbance to form off the coast of Nicaragua on Monday and push ashore over that country on Tuesday, bringing heavy rains.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Saturday, which will maintain a threat of oil hitting beaches as far east as Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's new interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have an update on Saturday.
Jeff Masters
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All graphics made by cyclonekid
Status report on the relief wells being drilled to halt the Gulf of Mexico oil spill
Published: Friday, June 18, 2010, 9:06 AM Updated: Friday, June 18, 2010, 9:08 AM
BP is drilling two relief wells, a primary and a backup, in the Gulf of Mexico. The plan is for the primary relief well to intersect with the blown-out Macondo well at about 18,000 feet beneath the water's surface, or 13,000 feet beneath the sea floor, and pump it with mud and cement to shut it. If it fails, the backup well would take over.
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The relief wells are BP's final option to contain or stop the oil escaping from its Macondo well. The oil gusher has persisted since the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded and sank April 20, killing 11 people.
The relief wells start at about a half-mile from the accident and will try to meet the original well at a diagonal.
The first well has now been drilled to "just under" 16,000 feet, BP spokesman Tristan Vanhegan said. The second is at 9,778 feet.
"They're starting to close in on the well," Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen said. "The last thousand feet is a slower process and has to be very exact."
Thanks, now I see. Okay, I also see from above posts you are looking for 50-60 kt winds to classify a jet. Yeah, in that case, there isn't a jet over 92L, but that 300 mb analysis to me shows an anitcyclone over the SE Caribbean and that persistent TUTT to its NW. The pressure gradient aloft between the ridge and TUTT is not enough to generate a westerly jet above 92L, but it is still enough to make upper westerly winds to shear 92L IMO.
I am happy to see no head impacting desk so far... we value what is in that cranium!
CRS
Hey Miami :)
If that is indeed the case then Dr. Masters should update his post so people don't get the wrong idea.
I think shear will kill it before then. There won't be anything left to develop.
Nasty....will only keep going up too as the SE US bakes for the rest of the summer.
Exactly. The upper level highs and lows have a pressure gradient between them just like the surface ones.
Look at the 200MB and 300MB streamline charts and you will see the places there are strong winds between from a steep pressure gradient. These are what are highlighted on the shear maps.
Uh oh... Just imagine September... AHH SCARY!
If the warming trend continues, just about anything that doesn't hit shear, land, or dry air will have plenty of fuel and should blossom.
Thing is, what some people tend to forget is that once something passes through warm waters, it leaves a trail of cold water behind it.
Even if shear kills it, 92L will still be carrying its energy. And to add on top to that, models (specifically the GFS) begins to lower pressures across the GOM and western Caribbean which is a catalyst for an area of low pressure to develop, you match that up with favorable conditions, and boom! TD#1.
Don't even get me started.
I think Mother Nature just about skipped June. It feels like July here, not to mention the wave train.
I'm in upstate SC, I'll be happy if an ex-hurricane comes, it'll cool us off.
dejevue same time as yesterday starts out with a little red dot then .....
Are the local NOLA stations talking about additional precautions this season?
Oh, didn't know that.
Now, what I've found interesting is that if you go to the FTP site, the low is getting stronger while it's being sheared. It's gone from 1013 to 1010. How come?
Always talking something on Prep this time of year here.
Folks need to have a evac plan,destination..and other to be ready to bounce when told to do so...from Texas to Maine.
Ah. Gotcha.
Note the La Nina signature beginning to show in the EPAC. Tropical Atlantic is insanely warm.
We are neutral -0.2
lol@ Drak
The TCHP awaits a Vortex.
Ah ah ahh ah ahhhhhh.........
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