92L very disorganized, but a long-range threat to develop
Invest 92L, which yesterday became severely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, is generating a large area of rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today. Infrared satellite loops show that the tops of the thunderstorms associated with 92L have warmed in recent hours, and these thunderstorms are weak and disorganized. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry air in the storm's environment, and this dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the dry air is sinking to the surface and creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. With wind shear at 20 - 30 knots today, no signs of a surface circulation, and plenty of dry air around, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put the chances at 1%. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on. Antigua recorded sustaiined winds of 20 mph this morning from 92L.
A slight chance 92L could develop next week
Today and Saturday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. These factors should significantly disrupt the disturbance. If there's anything left of 92L by Sunday, when it will be over eastern Cuba, the storm may have the opportunity to develop. At that time, 92L will have passed through the core of the subtropical jet stream and entered a region of lower shear (15 - 20 knots.) For the latest round of 00Z and 06Z model runs, the HWRF is the only reliable model calling for 92L to develop; that model predicts that 92L will organize into a tropical depression on Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, and head into the Gulf of Mexico. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to do this are great, and I give 92L just a 10% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday next week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the more dense dry air creates downdrafts. When these downdrafts hit the surface, the air spreads out creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. This puts stable air into the storm's low level environment and blocks inflow of moist air into the core of the storm, weakening it. These arc clouds are a telltale sign that dry air is significantly disrupting the disturbance.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a tropical disturbance to form off the coast of Nicaragua on Monday and push ashore over that country on Tuesday, bringing heavy rains.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Saturday, which will maintain a threat of oil hitting beaches as far east as Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's new interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have an update on Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Woke up and turned on my computer to look at 92L.
I've seen enough model runs from the GFS to keep 2 eyes on 92L. Plus with the oil volcano.
Could be trouble middle to end of next week.
Lol. I was calling it the little heat engine that could.
Right. The trailing blob is the business end, still. It really went retrograde; the stuff over PR is just 92L's version of recon. LMAO
Pshaw. you mean "Mr. 1%"? lol ( /me cuts it close )
Beautiful image.
I'm ready.
6Z model runs in a few hours.
92L continues to amaze. I say it makes it over the hill .... ready for teh crow, too!! What a great storm!!
almost here
Can anyone tell how strong a storm that's showing?
Thanks I like rainbows. :)
You're about to be rocked! LOL.
OK Thanks XCOOL. :)
1001mb but its a global model so it might be a slight bit lower, my guess is upper 990's. The pressure gradient on the NE side isn't that great, so my guess is mabye 30-40 mph.
92l is here
bands of rain and winds, typical storm
gusts, first one of 2010. Welcome Home and see you tomorrow if you leave surf...
Ah ok. That made me understand the models better. As in the pressure gradients. Now I get it! Lol. Thanks. :)
2010061900z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
NAO value for forecast hour 000: -51.5769119
NAO value for forecast hour 024: -29.4786301
NAO value for forecast hour 048: 17.9408607
NAO value for forecast hour 072: 16.2911873
NAO value for forecast hour 096: -6.36611557
NAO value for forecast hour 120: -33.3738098
NAO value for forecast hour 144: -64.9375916
NAO value for forecast hour 168: -90.3083496
NAO value for forecast hour 192: -118.734428
NAO value for forecast hour 216: -123.95755
NAO value for forecast hour 240: -123.36068
NAO value for Day 1-5: -6.99730158
NAO value for Day 6-10: -104.25972
just had multiple gusts to around 50-60 mph
Good night MRS.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
217 AM MDT SAT JUN 19 2010
COC087-121-190845-
/O.CON.KBOU.TO.W.0059.000000T0000Z-100619T0845Z/
WASHINGTON CO-MORGAN CO-
217 AM MDT SAT JUN 19 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM MDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL MORGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
AT 217 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILLROSE...OR 17 MILES EAST OF FORT
MORGAN. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SNYDER...PREWITT RESERVOIR...MIDWAY AND HILLROSE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4043 10345 4043 10333 4022 10322 4018 10355
4034 10363
TIME...MOT...LOC 0817Z 238DEG 20KT 4031 10346
$$
....millions of lurkers around the globe wait with baited breath to see if a BLOB (what's now left of 92L/The Entity/"Wanna Be Alex") with almost no energy, slightly larger than PR can crawl panting over the mountains of PR to then totally turn around into a Hurricane. ROFLOL
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS (EP032010)
9:00 AM UTC June 19 2010
==================================
At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Blas (997 hPa) located at 16.4N 109.1W or 315 NM west southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 16.9N 112.1W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 17.1N 115.9W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 16.9N 119.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W WILL MOVE W AND INLAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC ALONG 66W WILL CONTINUE W-NW
ACROSS NE CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT ATLC THROUGH SAT...REACHING 70W
TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUN...THEN REACHING E
CUBA MON...CENTRAL CUBA TUE...AND LIFTING NW ON WED. EXPECT
SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS BEHIND WAVE. HIGH PRES AND FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
BUILD INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN BEHIND THIS TROPICAL
WAVE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS ON TUE...REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT. THIS
WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SURGE.
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH TUE. A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA WED...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
OVER THE E PART OF THE BASIN.
Go away, 92L, my cistern is full now.
Nothing yet to report from the west of Puerto Rico (Mayaguez). At the moment everything seems pretty quiet.
Was just reading the NWS in N.O. and Houston. Both mention 92l/tropics. Lake Charles doesn't know its Saturday yet. lol
Tallahassee,FL. extended discussion....
"LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED AS IT
MAINTAINS A MEAN TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE GFS REMAINS DRIER THAN THE EURO AND WILL
BLEND THE TWO...BUT LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...AND GO WITH POPS A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN
BY THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
WILL INDICATE TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE 900 LB GORILLA IN THE
FORECAST IS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. THE EURO HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT THIS SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH SHOW A CLOSED
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING."
92L...""""the 900 lb. gorilla.""""
LASTLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE GULF.
THE GFS ACCOMPLISHES THIS WITH WHAT IS NOW AN INVEST
AREA...92L...NEAR PUERTO RICO...AND DOES IT SOONER. THE ECMWF GOES
A DIFFERENT ROUTE AND LATER...TAKING 92L INTO THE TX COAST AS AN
OPEN WAVE...AND DEVELOPING SOMETHING NOT YET PRESENT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. WHETHER EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS MATERIALIZES OR
NOT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE ADVICE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS TO
SIMPLY KEEP UP WITH THE FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.
The 900lb gorilla is growing. :)
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