92L very disorganized, but a long-range threat to develop
Invest 92L, which yesterday became severely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, is generating a large area of rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today. Infrared satellite loops show that the tops of the thunderstorms associated with 92L have warmed in recent hours, and these thunderstorms are weak and disorganized. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry air in the storm's environment, and this dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the dry air is sinking to the surface and creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. With wind shear at 20 - 30 knots today, no signs of a surface circulation, and plenty of dry air around, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put the chances at 1%. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on. Antigua recorded sustaiined winds of 20 mph this morning from 92L.
A slight chance 92L could develop next week
Today and Saturday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. These factors should significantly disrupt the disturbance. If there's anything left of 92L by Sunday, when it will be over eastern Cuba, the storm may have the opportunity to develop. At that time, 92L will have passed through the core of the subtropical jet stream and entered a region of lower shear (15 - 20 knots.) For the latest round of 00Z and 06Z model runs, the HWRF is the only reliable model calling for 92L to develop; that model predicts that 92L will organize into a tropical depression on Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, and head into the Gulf of Mexico. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to do this are great, and I give 92L just a 10% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday next week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the more dense dry air creates downdrafts. When these downdrafts hit the surface, the air spreads out creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. This puts stable air into the storm's low level environment and blocks inflow of moist air into the core of the storm, weakening it. These arc clouds are a telltale sign that dry air is significantly disrupting the disturbance.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a tropical disturbance to form off the coast of Nicaragua on Monday and push ashore over that country on Tuesday, bringing heavy rains.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Saturday, which will maintain a threat of oil hitting beaches as far east as Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's new interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have an update on Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 190810
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT IN CONTROL OF OUR AREA. THIS TRANSLATES TO A CONTINUATION OF OUR
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING NORTHWARD
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAINLY DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. HOW FAR NORTH THE RIDGE SETS UP WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN HOW
MUCH RAIN OUR AREA COULD POTENTIALLY RECEIVE. A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A DEGREE OR TWO LESS
ON OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
IT IS THAT TIME OF THE YEAR TO START KEEPING AN EYE ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LATEST MODELS ARE OFFERING A RATHER WIDE
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ON POSSIBLE ACTIVITY ENTERING/DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO TOWARD THE MIDDLE/END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY TUNED. 42
&&
.MARINE...
THE ONLY DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE WILL BE THE TYPICAL DIURNAL SLIGHT
INCREASE OF OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. OTHER THAN AN
EARLY MORNING SHOWER OR TWO...EXPECT AVERAGE 2-3 FOOT SEAS UNDER
NEAR-10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010/
AVIATION...
CIRRUS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES AND
THIS WILL EXPAND A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS. A BRIEF MVFR DECK SHOULD DEVELOP WITH A BIT OF
HEATING IN THE MORNING BUT THEN EVERYTHING SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING. AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...AM NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA/TSRA ON SATURDAY. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 76 96 76 96 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 96 76 96 76 95 / 10 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 82 91 82 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
I have a feeling we'll all be on your blog pretty soon. This place will be a mad house once we have a named storm.
Ive seen 11 million page views in a day here..on the Day and night before Ike made Landfall.
The chaff fall to the side during a Big event..always
I tend to disappear to a little secret place I'm prolly not supposed to post in here. It's initials are gulfcoastwx.
com
Not entertainment value, whatsoever, for those that seek only that.
we did not have water damage at my home only wind. Your damage from Ike was much more significant than ours from Rita. Ike was horrible. The surge was horrific with Ike from what I seen and heard.
(1 degree of longitude is 69 miles.)
69 X 3 = 207
207 / 13 = 16
92L should be around 70˚W in about 16 hours if it maintains current forward motion.
Something is going to be brewing in the next few days IMO
- 92L -
and curve out to sea....
we really cannot handle having any system get into GOM this y ear... that would be the worse case nightmare..
Good morning again to those that have arrived since very early morning post.
or 95E in the EPAC, steering shows it is moving westward
I'm seeing it a little more north than that Hurricane.
Link
I agree. Hopefully the land interaction won't allow it to develop. I hope Haiti is prepared for heavy rains.
maybe the MJO changes the steering too lol
could be this area of disturbed weather sparks something with 92L
There alway, or for most of the season now, there seems to be alot of convection in that pocket off Panama. Why do you think now it will develop. . . What's different. thanks
upward MJO phase, additional spark from 92L, favorable upper level winds and model support
Let me ask if this makes any sense. Something form around 80w. Refering to Satelite atlantic wide view, the high over MX keep it east, the low over FL lifts it north? Am I close to being right? Leaning
July 5-6
Hurricane Cindy was a tropical cyclone that briefly reached minimal hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico during July in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season and made landfall in Louisiana. It was the third named storm and first hurricane of the season. Cindy was originally thought to have been a tropical storm at peak strength, but was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane in the post-storm analysis.
Hurricane Cindy initially formed on July 3 just east of the Yucatán Peninsula in the Caribbean Sea. The depression soon made landfall on the peninsula and weakened before reemerging in the Gulf of Mexico on July 4. The storm strengthened as it moved north becoming a hurricane just before making landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana, on July 5. The storm weakened as it moved overland and became extratropical on July 7.
Hurricane Cindy was responsible for 3 deaths in the United States and brought heavy rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Maryland. An unusually strong F2 tornado was spawned from Cindy's remnants and caused severe damage in Hampton, Georgia. Cindy also caused flooding and a severe blackout in New Orleans, Louisiana, which encouraged the population to evacuate when Hurricane Katrina approached the city the next month.
Under upward motion now; should shift towards downward motion in about a week across the Caribbean.
looks like the E PAC will see a strong downward motion of the MOJO wish would be puting a end too any more name storms
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