92L very disorganized, but a long-range threat to develop
Invest 92L, which yesterday became severely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, is generating a large area of rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today. Infrared satellite loops show that the tops of the thunderstorms associated with 92L have warmed in recent hours, and these thunderstorms are weak and disorganized. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry air in the storm's environment, and this dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the dry air is sinking to the surface and creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. With wind shear at 20 - 30 knots today, no signs of a surface circulation, and plenty of dry air around, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put the chances at 1%. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on. Antigua recorded sustaiined winds of 20 mph this morning from 92L.
A slight chance 92L could develop next week
Today and Saturday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. These factors should significantly disrupt the disturbance. If there's anything left of 92L by Sunday, when it will be over eastern Cuba, the storm may have the opportunity to develop. At that time, 92L will have passed through the core of the subtropical jet stream and entered a region of lower shear (15 - 20 knots.) For the latest round of 00Z and 06Z model runs, the HWRF is the only reliable model calling for 92L to develop; that model predicts that 92L will organize into a tropical depression on Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, and head into the Gulf of Mexico. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to do this are great, and I give 92L just a 10% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday next week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the more dense dry air creates downdrafts. When these downdrafts hit the surface, the air spreads out creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. This puts stable air into the storm's low level environment and blocks inflow of moist air into the core of the storm, weakening it. These arc clouds are a telltale sign that dry air is significantly disrupting the disturbance.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a tropical disturbance to form off the coast of Nicaragua on Monday and push ashore over that country on Tuesday, bringing heavy rains.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Saturday, which will maintain a threat of oil hitting beaches as far east as Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's new interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have an update on Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
987
WHXX01 KWBC 181314
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1314 UTC FRI JUN 18 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100618 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100618 1200 100619 0000 100619 1200 100620 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 62.2W 16.4N 65.4W 16.8N 68.9W 17.2N 71.7W
BAMD 16.1N 62.2W 16.5N 63.6W 16.8N 65.0W 17.1N 66.5W
BAMM 16.1N 62.2W 16.5N 64.5W 16.9N 66.9W 17.2N 69.1W
LBAR 16.1N 62.2W 16.4N 64.5W 16.8N 67.2W 17.2N 69.8W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100620 1200 100621 1200 100622 1200 100623 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.2N 74.6W 17.9N 79.7W 18.2N 84.1W 18.0N 87.8W
BAMD 17.4N 68.1W 18.6N 71.0W 20.3N 74.0W 22.1N 76.7W
BAMM 17.5N 71.2W 18.3N 74.7W 19.4N 77.9W 20.6N 80.6W
LBAR 17.6N 72.6W 19.3N 77.0W 22.0N 80.5W 23.4N 83.0W
SHIP 28KTS 32KTS 42KTS 58KTS
DSHP 28KTS 31KTS 41KTS 58KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 62.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 59.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 57.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
All of those blobs should be watched......especially if they begin to lift into the Caribbean.
Hey, I resemble that remark.
Circulation isn't everything,,, the energy is there, if that energy can find the right conditions, then we could get something we don't want, especially in the GOM.
P.S congrats to the USA Soccer team, come back from 2-0 to draw 2-2, was very entertaining game. Goodnight
That is EXACTLY what I was thinking about.....
1. Warm SSTs.
Things going against 92L:
1. Heavy upper level winds.
2. Dry air.
3. No circulation.
4. No convection.
5. Steering currents.
6. I'm sure there are more I just don't remember.
I see it.. its fairly weak but it's there..
Our little storm that could!!! LOL
LOL Storm. This blog sure can fire up lost thoughts from long ago. I remember some rather brisk debates concerning the jet stream and continuous vs discontinuous frontal boundaries.
I think BP Executive Tony Hayward is a newly born weather nerd too :-)
there is no COC, but there is a broad spin noted in the visible satellite
??
Ha! Guess he probably is... or should be. Gotta run peeps. See ya later.
You never know, though. Systems "pop-up" all the time in the gulf under good conditions (i.e. Marco, Humberto, etc.)
I really enjoy Firefox. I think it is MUCH better than Internet Explorer.
You forecasted at least 2 storms before the end of June yesterday and I disagreed with you (with a typical mid-July kick-off date for the season).......However, that region is more condusive for development this time of the year where the remnants may be headed so we will have to wait and see if more models jump on borad per Dr. M's note.
I can hear him now. PLEASE, no storms in the gulf, PLEASE.
Ciao!
good afternoon all :)
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