92L very disorganized, but a long-range threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:05 GMT le 18 juin 2010

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Invest 92L, which yesterday became severely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, is generating a large area of rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today. Infrared satellite loops show that the tops of the thunderstorms associated with 92L have warmed in recent hours, and these thunderstorms are weak and disorganized. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry air in the storm's environment, and this dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the dry air is sinking to the surface and creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. With wind shear at 20 - 30 knots today, no signs of a surface circulation, and plenty of dry air around, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put the chances at 1%. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on. Antigua recorded sustaiined winds of 20 mph this morning from 92L.

A slight chance 92L could develop next week
Today and Saturday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. These factors should significantly disrupt the disturbance. If there's anything left of 92L by Sunday, when it will be over eastern Cuba, the storm may have the opportunity to develop. At that time, 92L will have passed through the core of the subtropical jet stream and entered a region of lower shear (15 - 20 knots.) For the latest round of 00Z and 06Z model runs, the HWRF is the only reliable model calling for 92L to develop; that model predicts that 92L will organize into a tropical depression on Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, and head into the Gulf of Mexico. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to do this are great, and I give 92L just a 10% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday next week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the more dense dry air creates downdrafts. When these downdrafts hit the surface, the air spreads out creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. This puts stable air into the storm's low level environment and blocks inflow of moist air into the core of the storm, weakening it. These arc clouds are a telltale sign that dry air is significantly disrupting the disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a tropical disturbance to form off the coast of Nicaragua on Monday and push ashore over that country on Tuesday, bringing heavy rains.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Saturday, which will maintain a threat of oil hitting beaches as far east as Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's new interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting watchingnva:


exactly why i said surge is not our friend...anything over cat 1 will move oil inland...when i say weak, i mean cat 1 or less moving slow to chop up the water...

the gulf has had spills before, as well as other parts of the world...mother nature can help sometimes...other times she just likes to make things worse...lol

There is a case to be made for the oil being easier to clean up on land than in the Gulf. I'm not advocating for Katrina II but lets just say we get a 30' surge 5 miles inland. The model that Jeff Masters was using a couple of weeks ago brought alot of this mess inland where as in the Katrina aftermath it could be burned and gotten rid of. Now I realize all of this is theory and it is predicated on STOPPING THE DAMN GUSHER. But its a theory.
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TROPICAL STORM BLAS
11:00 am EDT NHC Advisory: *NEW* Graphics Update
Member Since: 29 juin 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
In watching water vapor imagery, the environment that Invest 92L exists is really messy and hostile this morning. Deep dry air and subsidence to the north while the entire system continues to get pounded with fast upper level westerlies. Given that there aren't any signs suggesting this changing anytime soon and quickly, our invest stands practically no chance to survive and may have already met its demise earlier this morning. As far as a long term threat, I don't see it since there's nothing structure-wise left to serve as a focus for such a threat down the road. Pretty much to make a long story short for the folks out there, RIP Invest 92L.
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Anyone have access or a link to an aviation weather link with jet stream charts/locations?
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Quoting YourCommonSense:
An over hyped season ahead? We will find out by late August.


92L is a true indication that conditions are over prime in the Tropical Atlantic. Shear is the exception and is fully expected this time of year.
Member Since: 30 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At the moment there is much co fusion on whether or not the subtropical jet is still there.
When will we know for sure?
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Quoting scott39:
Is the subtropical jet stream going to be there thru Saturday or not?
At the moment there is much co fusion on whether or not the subtropical jet is still there.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I have to say this looks like the end for 92l.
It isn't the first time I hear someone say that.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Is the subtropical jet stream going to be there thru Saturday or not?
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I have to say this looks like the end for 92l.
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41. IKE
I agree with Dr. Masters, I see no circulation left of 92L. System is getting sheared badly.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Yesterday night the enViromnent was moist.. and now it's dry!
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..... ........A lot of dry air to its north. I believe two days, then moisture will be back.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22317
Goodmornig, How long will 92L ingest dry air?
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Quoting hurricane23:


Its been a very disorganized wave now for about 2 days. Slim chance at redevelopment.


Your correct

AL, 92, 2010061618, , BEST, 0, 148N, 521W, 25, 1011, DB,
AL, 92, 2010061700, , BEST, 0, 151N, 537W, 25, 1012, DB,
AL, 92, 2010061706, , BEST, 0, 155N, 554W, 25, 1013, WV,
AL, 92, 2010061712, , BEST, 0, 158N, 572W, 25, 1013, WV,
AL, 92, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 583W, 25, 1012, WV,
AL, 92, 2010061800, , BEST, 0, 161N, 593W, 25, 1011, WV,
AL, 92, 2010061806, , BEST, 0, 161N, 606W, 25, 1011, WV,
AL, 92, 2010061812, , BEST, 0, 161N, 622W, 25, 1011, WV,
Member Since: 30 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1% chance, got to like that.
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Quoting StormW:


I don't see it either:





I recall our blogs yesterday when I asked about the sheer affecting 92L as related to the location of the TUTT but I can't locate any chart right now indicating the position of the subtropical jet......Thanks.
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Quoting StormW:


I don't see it either:



I thought it was still there.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am more worried about a Cat 2-3 in the gulf... hitting that oil. You could have oil over everything... 10 miles in land.


exactly why i said surge is not our friend...anything over cat 1 will move oil inland...when i say weak, i mean cat 1 or less moving slow to chop up the water...

the gulf has had spills before, as well as other parts of the world...mother nature can help sometimes...other times she just likes to make things worse...lol
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Quoting watchingnva:
our problem with this spill is it is still not shut down...if it was...a weak storm with a generous course could help to disperse some of the oil...there will be oil where we dont want it....there is absolutely no way we can/will catch, stop all of it...

at this point you have to hope to keep the damage/affected area to a minimum...

storm surge is not our friend right now...


I am more worried about a Cat 2-3 in the gulf... hitting that oil. You could have oil over everything... 10 miles in land.
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Wasn't the ECMWF also predicting something? And afternoon everyone.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Its been a very disorganized wave now for about 2 days. Slim chance at redevelopment.
Slim chance of development in the short term. I believe that if 92L remains a recognizable feature by the time it gets to the Bahamas or Gulf of Mexico it shouldn't have any problems developing.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
our problem with this spill is it is still not shut down...if it was...a weak storm with a generous course could help to disperse some of the oil...there will be oil where we dont want it....there is absolutely no way we can/will catch, stop all of it...

at this point you have to hope to keep the damage/affected area to a minimum...

storm surge is not our friend right now...
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Steering currents suggest westward motion but the weakness by the Bahamas changes up the track. I think we will see westward motion until around Hispaniola and then WNW/NW motion.

Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Thanks Dr. M (or anyone).....Only thing confusing me about your post are the references to the sub-tropical jet stream affecting 92L. I am looking at one of the FSU jet stream models right now (http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_init_00.gif) and I don't "see" the sub-tropical jet. Am I looking in the wrong place?......Thanks.
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If you look at the floater on 92L it looks like a dragon on fire
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Well, I took the day off, so I'm headed to the beach! Keep the storms away please! :)
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I suspect around early to mid aftern.oon we will some action out of 92L. It is very circadian.


Sure... make me go look up big words... on only two cups of coffee....

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Quoting CaneWarning:
Hopefully the land interaction will kill it. We do not want it in the Gulf!


Its been a very disorganized wave now for about 2 days. Slim chance at redevelopment.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Too much shear, it is not lifting out
GFS continues insisting on the equatorial ridge to strengthen and push the TUTT to the north and west, but that's not all of its problems. The subtropical jet is still in place.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
...by Sunday, when it will be over eastern Cuba,

It looks like we will get rain from this system here in the TCI
CRS
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Sorry Jeff but I have to disagree on you saying that there are no signs of a surface circulation. Cimss 850 millibar vorticity is good and you can see rotation on radar imagery.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194


AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting watchingnva:


the gulf is a beautiful place, and this spill is horrible...but land interaction with haiti/dr...causing many deaths is not a better scenario...how about a harmless naked swirl? ...


I'm not sure that will happen either. I just don't want it in the Gulf.
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Good morning!
Floater back on 92L.

IRLoop
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It's trying not to care about wind shear and dry air, just like it didn't care about anything else, but it just can't ignore it, shear is banging on its windows.
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He just had to say "a long range threat to develop"... thats going to have people in a minor panic for days.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Hopefully the land interaction will kill it. We do not want it in the Gulf!


the gulf is a beautiful place, and this spill is horrible...but land interaction with haiti/dr would surely brings flooding/landslides...causing many deaths...that is not a better scenario...

how about a harmless naked swirl ftw? ...
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Thanks!
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Too much shear, it is not lifting out
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Hopefully the land interaction will kill it. We do not want it in the Gulf!
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The obstacles that 92L must overcome to do this are great, and I give 92L just a 10% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday next week.

Sooo...given how stubborn this thing has been, there's a decent chance!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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