Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
ARE YOU NUTS NO WAY YOU GET A CAT 7...ONLY GO UP TO CAT 5 SILLY.

Wow...you really need to unclench a little...life is too short

oooooffh..

Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 44 sec ago
Haze

95.0 °F

Haze
Humidity: 58%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: 1.7 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 8.1 mph
Pressure: 30.06 in (Rising)

Heat Index: 111 °F

Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 6 out of 16
Pollen: 3.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 3500 ft
Scattered Clouds 4200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft

Quoting reedzone:


No no you must of misunderstood what I was saying.. I said they might bump chances up on the TWO later this afternoon, POSSIBLY but not likely at orange code. More like 30% r something like that. I also said that a TD will likely form in a few days, not tonight. Trust me, I'm not going over myself here lol.

Like I said borderline yellow/orange.

T & L= Thunder and Lightning

Quoting reedzone:


No no you must of misunderstood what I was saying.. I said they might bump chances up on the TWO later this afternoon, POSSIBLY but not likely at orange code. More like 30% r something like that. I also said that a TD will likely form in a few days, not tonight. Trust me, I'm not going over myself here lol.

That wasn't directed at you, I think what you said made a lot of sense

Its ok to have disagreements, we just have to understand the persons point of view, just as long as we don't get involved in arguements.

93L analog tracks:

My forecast for 93L is:
80mph hurricane
landfall at yucatan(55% probablity) or:
100mph hurricane
Texas landfall(40% probablity)

looks like at least a 3000 post blog by tomorrow morning... Unless the Doc updates later today

The blog is moving too fast. I'll be back later.

Where on the Gulf coast does this potiential TC need to hit, not to stop progress for long for BP?

Intensity guidance calls for a Hurricane:

Tampa dont draw that line again! LOL

Quoting TampaSpin:

Thanks...you pointed it right at me. You hate me that much? J/K

Way west of 90 West

Quoting biloxidaisy:


errr, it's called sarcasm..lol

Thanks, daisy...LOL

Quoting TampaSpin:

What the *($%$%^ &&$@^^ &!@%$ is your problem man? LOL..... Hope you're wrong dude

LOL.....TWC still says the wave has to get through shear. Obviously they have not looked at shear maps recently. God are they awful.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Intensity guidance calls for a Hurricane:

The LGEM which the NHC likes to use takes this to TS strength in 36hrs which is reasonable.

Latest ASCAT a little too far west

ASCAT missed the east side but there is obviously no defined circulation yet.

Quoting AllStar17:
LOL.....TWC still says the wave has to get through shear. Obviously they have not looked at shear maps recently. God are they awful.

unless they call 5-15kt shear high.

Speaking of getting ahead of ourselves... the darn thing doesn't even have a defined LLC as of yet, and we are talking about a major hurricane in the GOMEX???

Quoting AllStar17:
LOL.....TWC still says the wave has to get through shear. Obviously they have not looked at shear maps recently. God are they awful.

no, see, they are talking about 91L still. 91L still has to get through shear! LOL

Quoting IKE:


Thanks...you pointed it right at me. You hate me that much? J/K

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


What the *($%$%^ &&$@^^ &!@%$ is your problem man? LOL..... Hope you're wrong dude

Quoting scott39:
Tampa dont draw that line again! LOL

YOU BOYS UP THERE ARE USE TO IT.....it just seemed like the logical place to send one since you are such PROS at this stufff.....LOL...SORRY!

Quoting Levi32:
ASCAT missed the east side but there is obviously no defined circulation yet.

agreed,

Quoting TampaSpin:


YOU BOYS UP THERE ARE USE TO IT.....it just seemed like the logical place to send one since you are such PROS at this stufff.....LOL...SORRY!

That's like telling a prisoner, don't worry about it, you're use to it.

Quoting TampaSpin:


YOU BOYS UP THERE ARE USE TO IT.....it just seemed like the logical place to send one since you are such PROS at this stufff.....LOL...SORRY!

I hate to be a calmcaster as I am excited about this too, but realisitcally these models mean nothing without a LLC circulation to track from. So we can throw out all ideas of where its going until that happens.

Based on climo, heres what would happen if the BAMM suite was extrapolated.

Quoting IKE:


Thanks...you pointed it right at me. You hate me that much? J/K

Tampa is always pointing the threats our way! One of these days it's going to backfire and one of our storms as he likes to call them is going to make a right turn and enter Tampa Bay, they been lucky for a long time! Back at you Tampa LOL!

Quoting Patrap:
Way west of 90 West

I hate the term " take one for the team", because if anyone gets this its bad, but i will say the N Gulf Coast needs it the least!

Still consistently popping up thunderstorms, that is one little part that will keep this thing alive.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
93L analog tracks:

Cool map! Where did you find that one?

Quoting 69Viking:


Tampa is always pointing the threats our way! One of these days it's going to backfire and one of our storms as he likes to call them is going to make a right turn and enter Tampa Bay, they been lucky for a long time! Back at you Tampa LOL!

LOL.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


That wasn't directed at you, I think what you said made a lot of sense

Oh, ok.. Looks like the latest GFS develops the storm too far north and rams it into Florida, then out into the Atlantic, I don't really buy it, but now it develops the system.

Quoting Floodman:


Apples to oranges...BP is liable for all damages due to oil (or at least, should be). Storm surge comes in and leaves a 6' oil line on your house, it doesn't matter that the water carried it or the wind whipped it up...BP isn't an insurance company and their liability is for OIL...they don't have a policy in place with exclusionary language...now, if the insurance carrier is required to pay something up front for damages directly due to the storm, there may be some lattitude as to the split, carrier to BP for payment

Good analogy. Let's just run with that thought.

If a hurricane & storm surge comes in and leaves a 6' oil line on your house, then obviously you had wind damage, flooding and oil. When the water recedes, everything from that 6' line down to grade should have some amount of oil residue.

Carpet, sheetrock, floor tile, furniture all will need to be replaced anyway. Chances are that all windows will need to be replaced. Exterior siding will either need replaced or blasted, primed and painted. Even brick will need to be water blasted to clean.

BP can argue that the carpet, interior furnishings, etc... would need to be replaced anyway under flood insurance. Fed can argue that the damage wouldn't have been so bad without the oil residue. People without flood insurance (there are still those who don't) can argue that flooding caused part of their damage, but flooring & furniture might have been cleaned & salvageable if it weren't for the oil.

Normally, storm surge or wind is a cut & dried case. Either such-n-such was damaged and needs replaced or it is salvageable. Replacement is covered under flood insurance. However, the argument comes in that "part" of the reason it needs replacing is because it's covered in oil. It "might" have been salvageable if not for that.

That's where the lines will get blurred. Would your fence need to be replaced anyway due to surge & wind... or partially because it is coated with oil? If that's the case, why would your insurance company agree to pay for BP's portion of the damages? It sounds like a small question, but we're potentially talking about $500 Million or more in claims that could be filed against BP by insurance companies claiming partial liability on their part. The law would be on the insurance company's side due to partial responsibility by BP. Even if only 10% or 5% of the damages are from oil... that's a LOT of money insurance companies won't have to pay out. BP will not be pleased about paying for something that would have needed replaced anyway regardless of the oil.

In many different instances, from marshland cleanup to residential neighborhoods to businesses and public infrastructure... there will be claims galore if there is an oil sheen question. BP's liability in this is really a gray area.

Quoting scott39:
I hate the term " take one for the team", because if anyone gets this its bad, but i will say the N Gulf Coast needs it the least!

Gets what Scott? We have nothing to get right now. No LLC

Oy. This system couldn't complete a cart-wheel despite all of the closet wish-caster in the planet. How can people be so hyped up when we're looking at computer models which don't have an LLC to lock onto? Yes this while setting is RIPE for a major or at least considerable storm to brew ... but there's a possibility the closed low might never materialize. Until the LLC forms and persists ... this is a wait & see system.

Quoting gator23:

Gets what Scott? We have nothing to get right now. No LLC

See the word "IF"?

Ascat shows a sharp tropical wave but no closed low.