New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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3278. xcool
93L WILL develops .
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


so would your avitar if you entered your handle I suspect.


Yep works for me.
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3276. xcool
HEY E
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting btwntx08:

very interesting one thing to note what sw shear there talking about lol shear is decreasing still


Not sure, I hear it will develop and it won't develop. Who knows..... as always, watch and wait...I remember you from last year.
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3274. EricSFL
Hey.
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
I did . Quoted from post 3233

Sorry I ment that for the guy u were quoting. I hate when someone makes blanket statements w/o a source.
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There is also some decent convergence in that area:
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3269. Seastep
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Seastep, thought you retired. Back for the new season. Missed some good arguments.


Been around. Just crazy busy at work and home, so not as much.
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Which local mets?


channel 12
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Canadian still rolling out..continues strengthening ..down to 1002 mb

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3266. xcool
SO EWC NEXT
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting btwntx08:
ah ohhh new 850 mb vitocity at 3z
Link

Imo the elongated vorticity east of 70w is that of 93L.
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Did y'all see the pic of JFV on Google image? Shows up on page 3.


so would your avitar if you entered your handle I suspect.
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3260. Grothar
Quoting Seastep:


LOL.


Hey, Seastep, thought you retired. Back for the new season. Missed some good arguments.
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CMC shows a weaker storm.
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good night
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Quoting TampaSpin:


NOT PICKING ON YOU but, you said earlier it was extemely organized in Structure.......what changed?

This happens daily some people flip back and forth depending on how something looks.
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
In the Tropics, an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean is slowly strengthening. Very warm Sea Surface Temperatures of greater than 86 degrees are assisting the organization. However southwesterly shear may limit this system. It is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will keep the system from moving north and will likely move westward and by next Tuesday/Wednesday could be at the very least a rain maker for Texas./em>

When stating something like that, quote your source or post the link.
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3252. Grothar
Here is a little different view. Vigorous waves (may I use that expression this early in the season, or will the attacks start)

(Whinny voice): That's not vigorous, its just a wave.

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This is gonna be one INTERESTING season fer sure!!! :)
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3249. xcool
Link

CMC
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hurricanes101:



I think the GFS isn't developing 93L maybe because it feels the energy is too spread out over a large area and never gets a chance to consolidate.

Honestly we have seen that happen before and it is not out of the realm of possibility that 93L never develops.


NOT PICKING ON YOU but, you said earlier it was extemely organized in Structure.......what changed?
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
3244. Seastep
Quoting Grothar:
Posts are slowing down, is this what they call the blogurnal minimum?


LOL.
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3242. xcool


Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
mode runs are evere where right now so will have too wait in see


93L is not RIP be any means


we may have too wait in tell 93L be comes a TD them may be the mode runs will start locking on too some but in tell then mode runs will go all overe
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3240. Seastep
Quoting futuremet:


Gulp!


Unbelievable really! But, could be. That is just insane.

Is there a shear dance?
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3239. Grothar
Posts are slowing down, is this what they call the blogurnal minimum?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


cmc doesnt develop 93L anymore either, it develops the system behind it

The new CMC isn't out yet is it?
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3235. xcool
GFS Negative Feedback
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting btwntx08:
ok finishing eating bk now lol


Welcome back btwntx08 :)
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This from our locals...

In the Tropics, an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean is slowly strengthening. Very warm Sea Surface Temperatures of greater than 86 degrees are assisting the organization. However southwesterly shear may limit this system. It is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will keep the system from moving north and will likely move westward and by next Tuesday/Wednesday could be at the very least a rain maker for Texas.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:



I think the GFS isn't developing 93L maybe because it feels the energy is too spread out over a large area and never gets a chance to consolidate.

Honestly we have seen that happen before and it is not out of the realm of possibility that 93L never develops.


The GFS is always quick to jump. If it doesn't show much it's because there is a good reason. I am not sold by any means yet. IMO i think the waves stacked up further E will be the real deal in the coming weeks.
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3231. eye
90L - BUST
91L - BUST
92L - BUST
93L - BUST?
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Hello everyone:) Back for another season..been here lurking for the past 3 years...i'm in SWLA..how does 93L look this evening...??? How is everyone? Good to see you all!!! :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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