New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Hello everyone:) Back for another season..been here lurking for the past 3 years...i'm in SWLA..how does 93L look this evening...??? How is everyone? Good to see you all!!! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
im not seeing that happening and if the ecwmf and cmc sees something then then the chances of it being right are increasing


cmc doesnt develop 93L anymore either, it develops the system behind it
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3225. xcool
gfs have hard time
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting btwntx08:
gfs is still being a loser lol



I think the GFS isn't developing 93L maybe because it feels the energy is too spread out over a large area and never gets a chance to consolidate.

Honestly we have seen that happen before and it is not out of the realm of possibility that 93L never develops.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Yeah.He's famous!!!


Cracking me up! Only missing a cape and a box of Count Chocula cereal. I have no idea why that pic reminds me of that :)
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Hey Storm - your up late tonight
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Quoting atmoaggie:

We do have a recent history of retiring "I"-named storms lately...might we eventually see hurricane "Ignatius"?

Just since 2000, we've retired Iris (2001), Isadore (2002), Isabel (2003), Ivan (2004), and Ike (2008, replaced Isadore).
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GFS says no thank you to 93L. Dies in the Yucatan. It's seeing something from keeping it from developing. I suppose if 93L stays weak it will be going more W and eventually die over land.
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3213. xcool
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting 850Realtor:


Ooops, my bad. On page 2 tonight!
ok, now based on that pic he was a senior in 2003, and he is a junior in 2010 ????
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Quoting JRRP:
wind shear
240 hrs

see you tomorrow


Gulp!
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Quoting zoomiami:
Have to catch up - terrible car accident in the front of our house --- turned out we knew the people in both cars -- thank god no one was seriously hurt.


You're welcome.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
It will be interesting to see igor turn into the monster storm everyone's talking about.Now that I really wanna see if it's going to come true or not.

We do have a recent history of retiring "I"-named storms lately...might we eventually see hurricane "Ignatius"?
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3204. JRRP
wind shear
240 hrs

see you tomorrow
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I'm out too. Catch y'all later.
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3201. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:
yea I am out too, 93L is slowly organizing, and I am pretty tired, going to go to bed before 3am for once lol

nite


Was wondering how long you could keep that up lol.
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@3179 If you mean at 25 west that can't be it. it couldn't get into the W. Caribbean in 3 days
Member Since: 16 mai 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
3198. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:
00 Z at Grand Cayman:


Not too dry at all. Ex-92L brought a large burst of moisture into the NW Caribbean.
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yea I am out too, 93L is slowly organizing, and I am pretty tired, going to go to bed before 3am for once lol

nite
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Did y'all see the pic of JFV on Google image? Shows up on page 3.


Ooops, my bad. On page 2 tonight!
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93L looks horrible.....Skyepony may be correct about the blob behind 93L
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
93L

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3192. xcool
rob .mm bk .
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Ok I'm out for the night..... It's always good to see the evryone back on.... And remember you all need to play nice....

Have a great evening and nite for some and for others have a Great Day ....

Taco :o)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not as a met. He changed his major to Political Science I think.


That is correct.....future President some day!
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting Acemmett90:

that MCD's
or Duffys... :P
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00 Z at Grand Cayman:
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Did y'all see the pic of JFV on Google image? Shows up on page 3.
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thanks, lets see if it flares up ...
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Ominous!
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Quoting atmoaggie:

At least not as far as RUC can tell...

The text in the plot below represents where soundings actually happened at 0 Z.



Is RUC right? I dunno.

Correct, RUC 03Z analysis from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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