Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010 +6
A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters
Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado
Categories: Flood Hurricane
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701. kanc2001 17:49 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting hydrus:
A hand held battery charger for your cell phone can be a life saver. Especially when everything within 40 miles of you has been wiped off the Earth.


yea, including the cell towers
Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 181
702. ecflweatherfan 17:49 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Code Orange it is
Member Since: 19 Mars 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 947
703. xcool 17:49 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
tropical weather,
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501
704. reedzone 17:49 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Hey!! I was right, 30%!! Go me... Orange code! Was a possibility in my books.
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247
705. Stormchaser2007 17:49 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Up to orange at 2pm.
Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243
706. PalmBeachWeatherBoy 17:49 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Should we be looking at normal July tracks if 93L develops or are the tropics still in a June type track pattern?
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707. xcool 17:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
wow 30
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708. kmanislander 17:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting StormW:


That's a good question...the folks that could best answer that might be your local power company.


Having underground power lines will generally shorten the time needed to restore power. The problem that remains is that the Transmission lines ( high voltage ) that carries the power from the generating plant to the sub-stations for distribution are typically located overhead and in an intense hurricne scenario will suffer damage. Those lines would have to be replaced in order to restore power to the underground lines serving homes and businesses.
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709. boyzNme 17:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting Funkadelic:


Well to answer your question, it all depends on the strength of the storm. For example here in west palm beach during wilma, I was without power for 5-6 days. And underground lines do help with the restoring of power after a hurricane.


i noticed that western palm beach county lost power quicker - but it could have been a planned shutdown because of water which stands quicker and longer out there. they have underground wires.
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711. xcool 17:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Stormchaser2007 hey
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712. IKE 17:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
...30 PERCENT...
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713. wfyweather 17:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
30% code orange
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714. MississippiWx 17:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Link

14N 69W

Edit: I had a bad link. Zoom in to those coordinates on visible.
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715. Patrap 17:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
716. connie1976 17:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
GoodOleBudSir -

I live near Weston....so maybe I will be lucky!! ...or maybe I will be real lucky and a storm won't come near here!
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717. CybrTeddy 17:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Orange alert for 93L.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20178
718. xcool 17:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010    


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719. Patrap 17:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Oil-Zilla is in da making..


DWH Oil site should review their Emergency Exit Plans
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720. will45 17:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Orange 30%
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722. extreme236 17:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
I guess I was right about the TWO for once lol...showing some signs of organization and 30% orange alert
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723. GoodOleBudSir 17:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting connie1976:
GoodOleBudSir -

I live near Weston....so maybe I will be lucky!!


Howdy neighbor. Plantation here.
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724. PanhandleChuck 17:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting DestinJeff:
"I can't beieve the NHC is being so CONSERVATIVE on 93L! What more do you need to expect a TC to develop? An invitation?"

SARCASM FLAG: ON


Glad you cleared that up before you got bashed LOL
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725. Stormchaser2007 17:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting xcool:
Stormchaser2007 hey


Hey, whats up?
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726. weatherwatcher12 17:53 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting connie1976:
Thanks all for answering my question!! I HATE when the power goes out.....when I lived in Orlando and Charlie came...we were out of power for a WEEK!!!! I thought that I was going to die....lol...

My longest without power was for 1 month after Dean (2007).
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727. TampaSpin 17:53 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Orange alert for 93L.


With the Sheer Forecast it should have went to 40%....How many believe right now that a TD will form in 48hrs........I DO!
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
728. xcool 17:53 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z


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729. hydrus 17:53 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting kanc2001:


yea, including the cell towers
Some of them were still standing after Charley. Some of our cell phones worked, others did not.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14236
730. kanc2001 17:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting Funkadelic:


Well to answer your question, it all depends on the strength of the storm. For example here in west palm beach during wilma, I was without power for 5-6 days. And underground lines do help with the restoring of power after a hurricane.
Quoting Funkadelic:


Well to answer your question, it all depends on the strength of the storm. For example here in west palm beach during wilma, I was without power for 5-6 days. And underground lines do help with the restoring of power after a hurricane.


Its more dependent on the transmission lines and those are rarely underground. usually the underground lines are city centers and asthetically for neighborhoods.
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732. tornadodude 17:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
in case anyone missed it, 93L is now orange, and at 30% :p
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733. twhcracker 17:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
here is some good hurricane advice: never ever never ever NEVER go to walmart within 24 hours of estimated hurricane arrival. unless you have a flak jacket and helmet and knee pads. and nothing you need will be there anyway. not one loaf of bread or battery or bottle of water in the whole place. and people will be acting like godzilla has walked ashore running wild eyed down the aisles knocking you out of the way. if you realize theres some little extra you need, go to a dollar general in your immediate area. do not, i repeat, do not go to any walmart when a storm is headed there. walmartians go berserk pre hurricane.
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734. germemiguel 17:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
93L/Alex gonna hit....Haiti and Bahamas
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735. connie1976 17:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Howdy neighbor. Plantation here.


Hi! I live in Pembroke Pines....right next to the Everglades... :)
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736. GeoffreyWPB 17:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
I think during Frances and Jeanne, we had no power for a total of 13 or 14 days.
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737. leelee75k 17:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
good to see the 954 representing :) I'm in Sunrise.

btw I think this is the most I've ever posted on one of Dr M's blog in the 5+ years I've been a member here, lol, back to lurkdom for me.
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738. fire635 17:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:


With the Sheer Forecast it should have went to 40%....How many believe right now that a TD will form in 48hrs........I DO!


Im with you Tampa.... I say probable depression by 5pm advisory tomorrow.
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739. kmanislander 17:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting kanc2001:


Its more dependent on the transmission lines and those are rarely underground. usually the underground lines are city centers and asthetically for neighborhoods.


Precisely. See post 708
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740. JamesSA 17:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Quoting DestinJeff:
"I can't beieve the NHC is being so CONSERVATIVE on 93L! What more do you need to expect a TC to develop? An invitation?"

SARCASM FLAG: ON
LOL! ...and I think I see a pinhole eye. ;-)

Seriously though, this does look like it could be trouble. It has my attention.
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742. xcool 17:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Stormchaser2007 .sit here & Tired.
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743. Patrap 17:56 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
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745. connie1976 17:56 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
One month without power!!!! I would have died!!! ugh!!!!!
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746. MississippiWx 17:56 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Geez, this blog is moving way too fast.

Levi, Drak, Storm, Kman:

Try zooming in on the NASA site on visible. Look at 14N 69W. Nice circulation tightening up there.
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8495
747. johnnyascat 17:57 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
if you are out there lurking.

get ready to saddle up Cyclone Oz!

i am very much looking forward to your live webcam broadcasts.
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748. GeoffreyWPB 17:57 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
93L has reached medium shower curtain alert!!!!
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749. xcool 17:57 GMT le 21 juin 2010    



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750. dewdana 17:57 GMT le 21 juin 2010    
Hi fellow Wunderfolk- I saw this update on NASA hurricane feed today:
NO.ATLANTIC TROP.WAVES-
1.Along 19/20W so.of 14N;
2.Along 10N 47W to 5N 50W& to 2N 51W so.into Brazil
3. Wave along 62/63W south of 17N
4. Wave from 23N 73W through the Windward Passage to 17N 76W to 11N 77W.

I gather that #3 in the list is the much discussed 93L but what of the others... I am not used to following the NASA feed and they offer no interpretation. Anyone care to enlighten me as to what might become of the others? Is the fact that they are not listed as INVEST at NHC an indication they are inconsequential?
Forgive my ignorance... thanks!
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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