New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

Share this Blog
6
+

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2628 - 2578

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

He is right...you do not have a structure with NVA...you require PVA at 500mb. The structure is poor at the moment since there is no surface circulation. Doesnt mean it wont form but at the moment it is not structurally sound.
Funny how when Drak said it nobody said anything, but when I said, oh ignore him. I've had enough of this blog, I'm out.

Post 2432:
Quoting Drakoen:
Convection is bare but the structure is excellent:


Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Hi.

"There is negative vorticity aloft."..

What is negative vorticity ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


a rule of thumb you should learn, satellite imagery is always a better product to use than pretty much any other map out there

rule of thumb is if you can get true reading from upper air plots, it is better than reading satellite with a subjective eye. Yes if you are only using models for your charts sure but if you are looking at analysis from upper air plots then you are mistaken.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My apologies - I'm still on page 23 of 26 pages - so if I'm repeating someone else - sorry...

I have two thoughts about Invest 93.

1) How bad will it have to get before BP shuts down operations? I wonder if they will shut down as soon as it enters the gulf? I'm hoping they will wait as long as possible before shutting down repair/recovery operations.

2) The oft-repeated comment - it doesn't have to be a hurricane to do damage - and considering the condition of the north central gulf coast right now - I'm more than a little concerned about ANYTHING headed in that direction right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I usually see a big push on here by Portlight during a disaster, yet, I have yet to see anything regarding relief for the oil disaster. I was just wondering.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rcmansour:
93L RIP
This storm has Tampa written all over it! No I do not live in or near Tampa; I just see it bending further East with a front that comes down in time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2621. Grothar
I would say in the next 2 hours we shall be seeing much more red and possibly yellow in the next frames.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I agree. The fact that we are approaching 3,000 comments in a day for what is still a wave does not bode well.


I'm going to become very familiar with the ignore function as soon as this is designated. I hate using it, but I will use it when things get out of hand. I have it on "show all".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Looking at the Sat. Stills, there is apparent 'rotation' and even 'banding' in the north and east quads of the system.
But if you look at the loops, especially the infrared, you will see that those features are in fact clouds being blown away by shear.
Shear is still impacting the west and north of the system, big time.

It cant develop under those conditions IMO
I beg to differ.... Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We are talking about structure on satellite, you on the other hand or talking about some charts and vorticity.

He is right...you do not have a structure with NVA...you require PVA at 500mb. The structure is poor at the moment since there is no surface circulation. Doesnt mean it wont form but at the moment it is not structurally sound.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2617. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Category Two Cyclone Celia

..INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 103.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 102.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 100.6W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 974MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 70NM RD34NW = 80NM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
alot of the current structure is being created by the UL ridge building over 93L venting it,once some strong convection begins in the areas with the lowest pressures then will cyclogenisis begin drawing in warm moist air and forming a tight closed surface low pressure center....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We are seeing a lot of diffluent flow aloft with the high that gives that "fanning out" appearance of an organized low. At this time the vorticity is slim to none but the ingredients are all there for it to happen.

Wait and watch. Nothing else to do for now. Maybe at 75W, who knows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Blocked him a long time ago dude
Blocked me? Ok?
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2613. pottery
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Where do you get this from? Some chart? Look at satellite. You can see its trying to acquire a circulation. The NHC said so themselves. Don't just go by charts.

Looking at the Sat. Stills, there is apparent 'rotation' and even 'banding' in the north and east quads of the system.
But if you look at the loops, especially the infrared, you will see that those features are in fact clouds being blown away by shear.
Shear is still impacting the west and north of the system, big time.

It cant develop under those conditions IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Blocked him a long time ago dude


Chuck i hear ya brother......UNREAL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
This is going to be a painfully long season with all of this back and forth and misinformation


People posting misinformation on purpose should be flagged and banned by admin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:



ROFLMAO.....whatever.....LOL


Blocked him a long time ago dude
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Brilliant!

ty Pottery
it's gonna' be a long season. Some of us will maintain our sanity. It helps to have a sense of humor.
.
.
.btw...have you gelded that plant of your's yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txag91met:

There is negative vorticity aloft...


a rule of thumb you should learn, satellite imagery is always a better product to use than pretty much any other map out there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the riper are out i see
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2603. JRRP
Quoting Patrap:


TYVM

YW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We are talking about structure on satellite, you on the other hand or talking about some charts and vorticity.



ROFLMAO.....whatever.....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txag91met:

There is negative vorticity aloft...
You don't seem to understand that we are judging this "excellent" structure on satellite not on other products.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Where do you get this from? Some chart? Look at satellite. You can see its trying to acquire a circulation. The NHC said so themselves. Don't just go by charts.

There is negative vorticity aloft...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2599. xcool


Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting TampaSpin:
Don't get me wrong i think 93L is about to get its act together but, to say its Structure is Excellent without Vorticity much at all i don't differ to agree with. Sorry!
We are talking about structure on satellite, you on the other hand or talking about some charts and vorticity.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2597. Patrap
Portlight Disaster Relief



Last Updated: 1:33 PM CDT on June 02, 2010 Last Comment: 3:24 PM CDT on June 03, 2010
Portlight Receives Reeve Foundation Grant
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting rcmansour:
93L RIP
Well I was just thinking the Blog was being ok tonight and then this and I thought
"What Ever"

I think we all need to watch this because if it goes into the Gulf, it will be "Bad". Very Very Bad.... Thats for everyone on the Gulf Coast.... No matter if you live in TX all the way across to FL...

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't get me wrong i think 93L is about to get its act together but, to say its Structure is Excellent without Vorticity much at all i don't differ to agree with. Sorry!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening

The John Hope rule survives another challenge. 70W and still no classification for 93L.

The overall envelope looks much better tonight even though deep convection is lacking. That should be the next item on the agenda
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
please refrain from quoting idiotic statements! the little - works quite well in hiding people like that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
any LLC is west of 70w IMO,closer to 71w,of course just south of 15n....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yeah 5 knots of shear is ripping apart 93L for sure. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2590. Patrap
Quoting JRRP:

you meant 93L


TYVM
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting TampaSpin:


NO System is structurally sound without Vorticity and this has little Vorticity any any level......WEATHER 101!!!!!!!
Where do you get this from? Some chart? Look at satellite. You can see its trying to acquire a circulation. The NHC said so themselves. Don't just go by charts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


NO System is structurally sound without Vorticity and this has little Vorticity any any level......WEATHER 101!!!!!!!
No idea what you just wrote.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
I dunno.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It's not weakening, it remains structurally sound. It is even improving in organization.


I dunno, checking the buoy data down there I really do not see how the structure is improving. Pressure is up and the winds (which were never over 20 knots dropped.)

Still a loooong way to go

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is portlight offering any relief to the Gulf Coast victims of the oil disaster?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2585. JRRP
Quoting Patrap:
www.hurricanecity.com/closeup 98L

you meant 93L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like wewe will be getting a Windsat pass tonight on the system
Not ASCAT though, probably will pass west of the system.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting BenBIogger:


Agree.


Lol yeah. Write off something that just formed practically this morning. NHC in the TWD said a surface circulation is trying to form. Not like shear is about 5-10 kts and the waters are warm or anything right?
Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We are speaking about structure. Anyways there is a weak broad area of low pressure at the surface, just take a look at the TWD.


NO System is structurally sound without Vorticity and this has little Vorticity any any level......WEATHER 101!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2581. scott39
Quoting rcmansour:
93L RIP
please refain from making idiotic statements!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rcmansour:
93L RIP


I should ban u all for counting it off when it still has a great structure. For god's sake it is nighttime t'storms don't flare up that well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Great structure, weak convection.

Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2578. Grothar
Quoting futuremet:


It still seems to be an inverted trough. I see no significant west winds at the southern side.


Could that be because the Southern periphery is so close to a land mass? Would that prevent it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2628 - 2578

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
89 ° F
Ciel dégagé