Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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1451. Lower4216 20:58 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Ya. Good luck with that. I think you're right! Member Since: 29 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 27

1452. lordhuracan01 20:58 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Member Since: 11 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 225

1453. Fl30258713 20:58 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: If any state should be concerned with 93L (which at this point in time they shouldn't) it would be Texas. But we are still a loooooooooooong ways before I know that what I said will be accurate. Except depending on how big it gets, if it gets there, the waves and winds are likely to shove oil onto the beaches all along the North Central Gulf Coast. . If your talking Texas/Mexico border, that would be better. I know it's an incredibly long way out and it will do what ever it does, but the further north it goes just means more oil on land to the east. IMO Member Since: 24 juillet 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

1454. kingy 20:58 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: Best post of the year! XD his ego doesn't need any further inflation

1455. pottery 20:59 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting smmcdavid: Why is that? Why Texas more so than other gulf states? Just curious... 'cause it's bigger? Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

1457. MiamiHurricanes09 20:59 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting smmcdavid: Why is that? Why Texas more so than other gulf states? Just curious... Because the reliable ECMWF has been taking 93L to Texas for quite some time now. Steering also would suggest movement into the Gulf. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1458. cg2916 20:59 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Forming anticyclone over 93L. Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

1460. SavannahStorm 21:00 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Patrap: Come Friday..on 93L A scenario HAL 9000: Dr. Floyd? Dr. Heywood Floyd: What is it HAL? HAL 9000: There is a message for you. Dr. Heywood Floyd: Who's calling? HAL 9000: There is no identification. Dr. Heywood Floyd: What's the message? HAL 9000: Message as follows: "It is dangerous to remain here. You must leave within two days." Dr. Heywood Floyd: What? HAL 9000: who is JFV Dr.Floyd ? **************** 8:59 PM GMT on June 21, 2010 A JFV watch has been issued for the Dr. Jeff Masters Wunderblog. JFV conditions may occur within the next 48 hours. Watch may be upgraded to a warning at next advisory. FORECASTER AVILA ************ Member Since: 22 septembre 2005 Posts: 18 Comments:** 2135

1461. Babsjohnson 21:00 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Fl30258713: That's both sad and funny,lol. If I spray my house in NOLA with PAM will the oil slide right off? Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 138

1462. Patrap 21:00 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting kingy: his ego doesn't need any further inflation TYVM,..LOL You have a stain on yer tie...looks like crow Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

1463. MiamiHurricanes09 21:01 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting fire635: I think its a little to early to start saying which states are "safe" At this point ALL of the southern states need to stay alert. We all know that the models WILL change many times as the system organizes and as the conditions change. That is true but keep in mind Jeff narrowed it down to south Florida. Unless there is some sort of weakness around Florida to pull this system there isn't going to be much movement to there. Like you said still too early but a south Florida strike seems unlikely considering conditions. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1464. Floodman 21:01 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Patrap: You should see the Filter Wrench You're killing me today, Pat Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

1465. weathersp 21:01 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: I really do think the HH's will find TD1 tomorrow afternoon. Wendsday... I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT *23/1800Z.* Member Since: 14 janvier 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112

1466. CaribbeanIslandStorm 21:01 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Patrap: 2015 UTC RGB The models have no idea where this one's going

1467. leelee75k 21:02 GMT le 21 juin 2010
I'm still lurking but had to come back to say thank you to all for the great responses to my questions, I definitely need to do a shopping trip before a storm threatens to pick some of those things I never thought about. love the mini oreos too, but I stockpile m&m's, oreos make me want milk! Member Since: 9 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 541

1468. Patrap 21:02 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Floodman: You're killing me today, Pat Might as well Laugh this week floodman.. Oil zilla could be close by this time next Week. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

1469. pottery 21:03 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Pat, I thought we agreed not to mention the un-mentionable anymore. But your post on "the scenario' was Brilliant. You are excused, just this once... heheheh Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

1470. JDSmith 21:03 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Babsjohnson: If I spray my house in NOLA with PAM will the oil slide right off? I don't know if I should be appalled or rolling around on the floor twitching with laughter. Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 85

1471. gordydunnot 21:03 GMT le 21 juin 2010
My apology never could spell got off to a bad start in elementary school almost gave up. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1475. Patrap 21:04 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting pottery: Pat, I thought we agreed not to mention the un-mentionable anymore. But your post on "the scenario' was Brilliant. You are excused, just this once... heheheh Thanx for the pass.. Some things one has to share.. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

1476. ShenValleyFlyFish 21:04 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Lower4216: Ya. Good luck with that. I think you're right! At least on my presentation there is a little grab-spot on the lower Rt Hand corner that I can click on and mouse to adjust both horizontal and vertical aspect. Member Since: 9 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1477. twhcracker 21:04 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: Actually, the more I think about it, planting kudzu all over Haiti might be a good idea. Plant trees and they'll just be chopped down for firewood. and cows and goats will eat kudzu. Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

1478. Becca36 21:04 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting connie1976: Am I the only 30 something? No! LOL Member Since: 26 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

1479. Floodman 21:05 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting pottery: I think you meant 'poor'... Nope...iI meant "pore"...LOL How are you today, pottery? Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

1480. GeoffreyWPB 21:05 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

1481. Patrap 21:06 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

1482. twhcracker 21:06 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Babsjohnson: If I spray my house in NOLA with PAM will the oil slide right off? i have noticed since i have been dieting that oil and vinegar dont ever really mix that well. you could try vinegar on your house. you wouldnt attract flies right? you attract more flies with honey than.... Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

1483. CyclonicVoyage 21:07 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm: The models have no idea where this one's going Most don't even know it exists. Lackluster model support ATM. Member Since: 30 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

1484. MiamiHurricanes09 21:07 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Funkadelic: The same can not be said about the wave behind 93L. Models have hinted at moving it in Florida's "general direction" Yeah, I spoke about it a little earlier. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1485. Patrap 21:07 GMT le 21 juin 2010
..Been A Long time since we Rock and Rolled.. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

1486. MiamiHurricanes09 21:07 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: I'll take the CLP5 for now. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1489. Floodman 21:09 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Patrap: Might as well Laugh this week floodman.. Oil zilla could be close by this time next Week. Gather ye rosebuds while ye may, Old Time is still a-flying... Fingers crossed, but eyes wide open, hopefully the worst won't come to to pass... Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

1491. truecajun 21:09 GMT le 21 juin 2010
the models seem really divided. i didn't read blog yesterday. just curious, did any of you "predict" this 93L yesterday? Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

1492. twhcracker 21:10 GMT le 21 juin 2010
if oil zilla comes, cyclone oz could be on twc looking like one of those blobbed up brown pelicans. cantore could interview him. he would look like a man shaped brown coated lumpy talking babe ruth bar. and then cantore might accidentally strike a match.... yikes Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

1493. ShenValleyFlyFish 21:10 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting kingy: his ego doesn't need any further inflation I was thinking what a bizarre mind he must have. As full of links as his posts. LoL Member Since: 9 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1494. pottery 21:10 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Floodman: Nope...iI meant "pore"...LOL How are you today, pottery? Doing pourly... But fighting back. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

1495. truecajun 21:10 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: nevermind. i guess they don't. i was just looking at the wunderground model image Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

1496. ShenValleyFlyFish 21:11 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting pottery: 'cause it's bigger? Florida has more coastline. Member Since: 9 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1497. Floodman 21:11 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting twhcracker: and cows and goats will eat kudzu. Wait a minute, I thought that mares eat oats and does eats and little lambs eat ivy; a kid'll eat ivy too...or was I wrong Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

1498. MiamiHurricanes09 21:12 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting F4PHANTOM: You need to check all the model runs that you missed. 2runs ago ECMWF was taking a strong hurricane into the Fla. panhandle; now a wave into the entire Tex. coast. The 00z ECMWF took 93L into Mississippi as a 950 millibar hurricane, the 12z takes 93L into Texas as a 1002 millibar tropical storm. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1499. Patrap 21:13 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: I was thinking what a bizarre mind he must have. As full of links as his posts. LoL U should see whats behind these retina's. It scares me sometimes. Swoooosh,,,ahhhhhhhhhhhh... LOL Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

1500. weathersp 21:13 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting truecajun: the models seem really divided. i didn't read blog yesterday. just curious, did any of you "predict" this 93L yesterday? The CMC and EMCWF started to pick it up on yesterday's 12z run and continued with it on the 00z. The EMCWF had a 950mb into NOLA on the 00z run (take with the dead sea of salt). 93L was declared and a blob has taken shape ahead of schedudle, wathcing for LLC's/COC's/ any sort of spins at the moment. Shear is very low and conditions are favorable for devlopment. Currently specialty models are having a hard time tracking it beacuse ther is no "center". Member Since: 14 janvier 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112

1501. stillwaiting 21:14 GMT le 21 juin 2010
looks like 93L is drifting slowly to the west.. Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

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