Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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2051. Patrap 23:43 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

2052. CaneWarning 23:43 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Looks like a turn towards the north if you ask me. Look at the steering for that time frame. I wouldn't be shocked to seem a more pronounced run later in the time period. I don't like the looks of that. Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

2053. Drakoen 23:43 GMT le 21 juin 2010
126 24.3 86.7 351./ 4.3 Heading north at 351 degrees at the end of the run Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2054. Drakoen 23:44 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Whoops! Missed that bit, either way it still has pressure at 1008 millibars. Insignificant Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2055. Seflhurricane 23:45 GMT le 21 juin 2010
based on all the info people have posted looks like we may be close to red on the two Member Since: 14 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2898

2056. all4hurricanes 23:45 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Ok what is the only named category five that never made a landfall? Sorry no url to steal an answer from this time Member Since: 29 Mars 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2192

2057. Patrap 23:45 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: 126 24.3 86.7 351./ 4.3 Heading north at 351 degrees at the end of the run The NNW Solution from there I dont favor atall Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

2058. Tazmanian 23:45 GMT le 21 juin 2010
the mode runs are wishcasters Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2059. CaicosRetiredSailor 23:45 GMT le 21 juin 2010
10% of folks here are hitting F5 on the NHC/TWO page Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5133

2060. GeoffreyWPB 23:45 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting scottsvb: You dont think people can see a map? You would be surprised. Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

2061. pottery 23:45 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: The Ocean Heat Content product below certainly shows a lot more energy available East of Tobago, compared to where 93L is now located. It also reinforces Kman's emphasis on what happens at 75 West. Good point.... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

2062. MiamiHurricanes09 23:45 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: 126 24.3 86.7 351./ 4.3 Heading north at 351 degrees at the end of the run Not good. That would take it right through the spill. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2063. cg2916 23:46 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Miami or Storm, Storm said the GFS is showing a ridge forming for the last 3 runs. What does this mean for 93L? Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

2064. Hurricanes101 23:46 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting all4hurricanes: Ok what is the only named category five that never made a landfall? Sorry no url to steal an answer from this time I think it was Cleo in 1958 Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2065. Ivanhater 23:46 GMT le 21 juin 2010
GFDL gets its upper air data from GFS which is why you see the turn north as the system gains strength. Interesting week shaping up... Member Since: 11 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 53

2066. scottsvb 23:46 GMT le 21 juin 2010
93L probably wont develop but the unclassified 94L near 11.8N and 58.8W has at least a 40% chance. 93L might get absorbed into this feature later Tuesday night into Weds. Maybe by Weds we might have something south of Puerto Rico-Dominican Republic heading WNW towards Jamaica-Cuba-Haiti for the end of the week. Member Since: 22 janvier 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1065

2067. CaneWarning 23:47 GMT le 21 juin 2010
] Quoting Ivanhater: GFDL gets its upper air data from GFS which is why you see the turn north as the system gains strength. Interesting week shaping up... Now the question is, will we see a turn to the northeast? Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

2068. spathy 23:47 GMT le 21 juin 2010
JMO But model runs now are kinda like pulling on the reigns without a horse attached and expecting your direction and speed to change. Edit But the models do suggest that a horse may come your way soon. Member Since: 8 juin 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10490

2069. Grothar 23:47 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting caneswatch: CaneWarning - I was thinking that too. Caneswatch, I haven't seen you on here since last year. Decided to come back? Things are getting interesting in the tropics. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

2070. Seflhurricane 23:47 GMT le 21 juin 2010
if 93L heads to the gulf like the models suggest this is going to be catastrophic for the gulf coast Oil would end up all over louisiana and through florida/ keys it would need to be real west of the spill to not have a significant effect on florida Member Since: 14 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2898

2071. MiamiHurricanes09 23:47 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Ivanhater: GFDL gets its upper air data from GFS which is why you see the turn north as the system gains strength. Interesting week shaping up... Agreed. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2072. Tazmanian 23:48 GMT le 21 juin 2010
the GFS is being a doomcater Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2073. Drakoen 23:48 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Patrap: The NNW Solution from there I dont favor atall The whole GOM should be watching this but generally the stronger this system becomes the more it will want to go into the central or eastern GOM vs. the Western GOM. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2074. weatherwatcher12 23:49 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting scottsvb: 93L probably wont develop but the unclassified 94L near 11.8N and 58.8W has at least a 40% chance. 93L might get absorbed into this feature later Tuesday night into Weds. Maybe by Weds we might have something south of Puerto Rico-Dominican Republic heading WNW towards Jamaica-Cuba-Haiti for the end of the week. 1. If it is not classified you cannot call it 94L and 2.The NHC doesn't seem to agree. Member Since: 16 mai 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

2075. MiamiHurricanes09 23:49 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: the GFS is being a doomcater Please stop it. It is foolish and annoying. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2076. plywoodstatenative 23:49 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Now remind you I just got home, so you may have seen this question already. Is this a leftover low from 92 and also what is the forecasted track for this system? Member Since: 15 novembre 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

2077. Tazmanian 23:49 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Please stop it. It is foolish and annoying. its true lol Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2078. MiamiHurricanes09 23:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting weatherwatcher12: 1. If it is not classified you cannot call it 94L and 2.The NHC doesn't seem to agree. Don't quote him. He has but a clue of what is going on. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2079. Patrap 23:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

2080. Tazmanian 23:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010
oops i mean the GFDL mode runs is being a doomcaster Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2081. nrtiwlnvragn 23:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Ivanhater: GFDL gets its upper air data from GFS which is why you see the turn north as the system gains strength. Interesting week shaping up... Only at initialization and at the boundry. Within the domain it resolves layers itself. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8937

2082. Hurricanes101 23:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Don't quote him. He has but a clue of what is going on. actually he might be right Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2083. CaicosRetiredSailor 23:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... #5 A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5133

2084. ecflweatherfan 23:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Still Orange... 50% now!! Member Since: 19 Mars 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 947

2085. IKE 23:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010
...50 PERCENT... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2086. cg2916 23:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010
000 ABNT20 KNHC 212349 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... #5 A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART 50%? Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

2087. MiamiHurricanes09 23:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: its true lol It isn't a human, it is a computer, I don't find it possible for a computer to be a caster. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2088. caneswatch 23:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Grothar: Caneswatch, I haven't seen you on here since last year. Decided to come back? Things are getting interesting in the tropics. lol........get in the chat please. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

2089. CybrTeddy 23:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010
50% chance now! 000 ABNT20 KNHC 212349 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... #5 A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

2090. kimoskee 23:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Met Service of Jamaica Website June 21, 2010 at 4:00 p.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…Tropical wave just west of the island. Comment…The Tropical Wave will move away from the island by tonight. A Trough to linger across the central Caribbean. 24 HOURS FORECAST Tonight… Isolated thunderstorms are likely over northern parishes. Tomorrow… Partly cloudy morning. During the afternoon expect scattered showers and thunderstorm over most areas. 3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow) Wed- Thu… Expect periods of showers and thunderstorms across most parishes. Fri… Scattered afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms across the island. Regionally… Trough and Tropical Waves over the central Caribbean will continue to generate unstable weather conditions across the Caribbean. grb Member Since: 17 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

2091. GatorWX 23:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting scottsvb: 93L probably wont develop but the unclassified 94L near 11.8N and 58.8W has at least a 40% chance. 93L might get absorbed into this feature later Tuesday night into Weds. Maybe by Weds we might have something south of Puerto Rico-Dominican Republic heading WNW towards Jamaica-Cuba-Haiti for the end of the week. "94L" is currently under about 30-35kts of shear, an isd also embedded in the itcz. I doubt thats going to happen! I do believe it will break away, but until then is no threat. Long term: I would certainly keep a close eye on it. Imagine both developing!? Would certainly shake things up a bit. It's June!!! Member Since: 1 janvier 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633

2092. Claudette1234 23:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010
ABNT20 KNHC 212349 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... #5 A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Member Since: 21 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549

2093. Tazmanian 23:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010
OMG 000 ABNT20 KNHC 212349 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... #5 A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2094. scottsvb 23:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Seflhurricane: based on all the info people have posted looks like we may be close to red on the two Colars dont mean anything. They are just for public amusement that the government wanted the NHC to put out. Just like the watches - warnings were increased (timewise) for the public. If they did a colar.. I think they should just use Orange (40-60%)..then straight to TD or sometimes TS. Systems dont have togo to TDs like alot know. Sometimes a system works its way down the the surface and already has 40mph winds. Sometimes they are surface troughs with 40mph winds but not a closed circulation. When the both do above. Then we get from a colar (which I prefer only orange) straight to TS status. Member Since: 22 janvier 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1065

2095. CybrTeddy 23:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Taz was actually the closest percent wise. He said 70%, we're at 50%. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

2096. IKE 23:51 GMT le 21 juin 2010
That should fire everyone up for the evening! Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2097. cg2916 23:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: Now remind you I just got home, so you may have seen this question already. Is this a leftover low from 92 and also what is the forecasted track for this system? No Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

2098. stormwatcherCI 23:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: The whole GOM should be watching this but generally the stronger this system becomes the more it will want to go into the central or eastern GOM vs. the Western GOM. Up to 50% Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

2099. 7544 23:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting CaneWarning: ] Now the question is, will we see a turn to the northeast? was thinking that at the end of the run it look like it was about to turn that way . but im still looking for a more east track in the next run imo Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

2100. Patrap 23:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010
50%.. Copy Dat. Oil Zilla seems to have a Vacation in Mind. Stay Tuned Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

2101. Tazmanian 23:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010
hmmm how many of you said A in my poll Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

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