Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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2101. Tazmanian 23:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010
hmmm how many of you said A in my poll Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111632

2102. xcool 23:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2103. plywoodstatenative 23:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Pat, you always have a point of putting those graphics up, however you do not appear under the listing of "good" which does not make any sense. Member Since: 15 novembre 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

2104. GeoffreyWPB 23:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010
50%...Impressed. Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9248

2105. MiamiHurricanes09 23:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: actually he might be right But to say that 93L is not going to develop is pretty foolish considering the conditions it has ahead of it. I do believe the area right before 93L has a chance of development but don't kill off a system. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20012

2106. IKE 23:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010
2094...it's colors. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

2107. marmark 23:52 GMT le 21 juin 2010
eeks...does oil attract hurricanes? Lol Member Since: 1 février 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 238

2108. Drakoen 23:53 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Wow 50% Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

2109. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:53 GMT le 21 juin 2010
054 WHXX01 KWBC 212344 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2344 UTC MON JUN 21 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100622 0000 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100622 0000 100622 1200 100623 0000 100623 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 14.9N 70.0W 15.9N 72.0W 16.9N 74.1W 17.9N 76.3W BAMD 14.9N 70.0W 15.8N 72.0W 16.6N 73.9W 17.1N 75.7W BAMM 14.9N 70.0W 15.7N 72.1W 16.6N 74.3W 17.3N 76.4W LBAR 14.9N 70.0W 16.1N 72.2W 17.4N 74.5W 18.4N 76.7W SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100624 0000 100625 0000 100626 0000 100627 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 19.0N 78.5W 20.8N 82.7W 22.6N 86.3W 24.6N 89.2W BAMD 17.4N 77.4W 17.8N 80.6W 18.5N 83.6W 18.9N 86.3W BAMM 18.0N 78.5W 19.0N 82.3W 20.1N 85.5W 21.2N 88.0W LBAR 19.2N 78.6W 20.7N 82.4W 22.8N 85.4W 24.5N 86.9W SHIP 51KTS 59KTS 68KTS 79KTS DSHP 51KTS 59KTS 68KTS 48KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 70.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 67.6W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 12KT LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 65.4W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

2110. TampaSpin 23:53 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

2111. scottsvb 23:53 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting GatorWX: "94L" is currently under about 30-35kts of shear, an isd also embedded in the itcz. I doubt thats going to happen! I do believe it will break away, but until then is no threat. Long term: I would certainly keep a close eye on it. Imagine both developing!? Would certainly shake things up a bit. It's June!!! Unclassified 94L is in 20-30kt easterly winds (so yeah your pretty much correct) but its also part of the ITZ that you mentioned. It should break off it later tonight or tomorrow. Question is.. will it merge with 93L or just become the dominate feature.. hmmm Member Since: 22 janvier 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1188

2112. JDSmith 23:53 GMT le 21 juin 2010
It is my informed opinion that 93L is going to pop... Open the infrared channel on this. http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=ir Look at the inflow and massive outflow channel that it has available to it. 93L is HUGE! It just needs a little more spin... Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 90

2113. MiamiHurricanes09 23:53 GMT le 21 juin 2010
5 TWO's were posted. LOL. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20012

2114. Drakoen 23:53 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting IKE: That should fire everyone up for the evening! LOL Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

2115. Patrap 23:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010
I feel "good" Huh,..go figure. Thanks Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113014

2116. BaltOCane 23:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting all4hurricanes: Ok what is the only named category five that never made a landfall? Sorry no url to steal an answer from this time Camielle and Andrew, but Andrew was upgraded in 2003-04 ish Member Since: 19 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 411

2117. xcool 23:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010
good job taz Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2118. centex 23:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010
A little perspective to probabilities of TD formation. You won't get this from NHC which is why your here but does not disagree with them. I think these numbers are reasonable based on current and forecasted environment. I have a day job so limited in time to research. 24 Hour - 20% 48 Hour - 30% 54 Hour - 50% 72 Hour - 70% Member Since: 10 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2876

2119. MiamiHurricanes09 23:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Wow 50% Honestly didn't expect that due to the waning of convection and lack of a low. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20012

2120. GeoffreyWPB 23:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Borderline Red. The evening hours should be interesting. Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9248

2121. xcool 23:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010
yayy lol Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2122. CaneWarning 23:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting IKE: ...50 PERCENT... Wow. Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

2123. Tazmanian 23:54 GMT le 21 juin 2010
i was off a little on my poll but wow i all most had it Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111632

2124. futuremet 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Given the current favorable conditions, 50 percent is reasonable. Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

2125. MiamiHurricanes09 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting IKE: That should fire everyone up for the evening! LOL! Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20012

2126. CybrTeddy 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
If this continues we should see a TCFA before too long. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20658

2127. Patrap 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Mid 20's N and Mid 80's West always suck.. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113014

2128. scottsvb 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Don't quote him. He has but a clue of what is going on. Ok this is coming from a 13 year old kid who right now has 4 Tropical Storms this year already? along with Reedzone,Hurricane 101 and about 15 other peeps. okay! Member Since: 22 janvier 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1188

2129. Claudette1234 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. #7 A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Member Since: 21 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549

2130. Tazmanian 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
000 ABNT20 KNHC 212349 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... #5 A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111632

2131. 7544 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting IKE: That should fire everyone up for the evening that 50%and the gfdl we should see over 3000 post before midnight lol Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6023

2132. spathy 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Keep . DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. . Understood. . :0) Member Since: 8 juin 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10532

2133. nrtiwlnvragn 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
18Z 93L HWRF Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9095

2134. cg2916 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Storm said that the GFS for the past 3 runs has been showing a strengthening in the subtropical ridge. What does this mean for 93L? Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2955

2135. TampaSpin 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Game OVER BP....your Yaht just sunk.....! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

2136. plywoodstatenative 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Now Tampa on those models, you really want to give someone heartburn? Member Since: 15 novembre 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

2137. MiamiHurricanes09 23:55 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: If this continues we should see a TCFA before too long. Doubt it. Let me count up the numbers. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20012

2139. Tazmanian 23:56 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting xcool: good job taz thanks Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111632

2140. marmark 23:56 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting BaltOCane: Camielle and Andrew, but Andrew was upgraded in 2003-04 ish Andrew made it to landfall. Member Since: 1 février 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 238

2141. GatorWX 23:56 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Would someone please post the TWO. TIA Member Since: 1 janvier 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 651

2142. SavannahStorm 23:56 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Wow, SHIPS has 93L at 79 knots in 120 hours... Member Since: 22 septembre 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2140

2143. Grothar 23:56 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting all4hurricanes: Ok what is the only named category five that never made a landfall? Sorry no url to steal an answer from this time Bow-wow, am I close? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19682

2144. Tazmanian 23:56 GMT le 21 juin 2010
WOW WOW WOW from 10% this AM too 50% this PM Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111632

2145. caneswatch 23:57 GMT le 21 juin 2010
I am wondering 93L is going to do more than turn north, because if it gets to a certain strength and it feels that weakness, FL may need to be watching. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4479

2146. StadiumEffect 23:57 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Link Although 93L's cloud tops warmed earlier today, its overall structure continues to improve, as noted by this loop. We'll have to wait until later tonight to see what happens.

2147. Tazmanian 23:57 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting GatorWX: Would someone please post the TWO. TIA oder up 000 ABNT20 KNHC 212349 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... #5 A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111632

2148. Drakoen 23:57 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Lots of moisture to work with Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

2149. clwstmchasr 23:57 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Wow 50% Given the satellite presentation I thought that they would leave it at 30% with at most an increase to 40% Pretty bold for the NHC who as we know are very conservative. Member Since: 29 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2783

2150. CaicosRetiredSailor 23:57 GMT le 21 juin 2010
hmmm.... 50 comments in 5 minutes = blog RI Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5260

2151. IKE 23:58 GMT le 21 juin 2010
I thought they might lower 93L to 20%, but when I saw the GFDL I thought they would keep it at 30%. I never expected a 50% chance with such a positive outlook for TD development. NHC is the experts. My opinion is simply a guessing game. Just surprised the models don't show much...yet. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

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