New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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I think Scotty.
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11394
1827. GatorWX
Quoting RecordSeason:
Rain is even intensifying on PR radar. Was mostly green and orange. Now there are a lot of reds showing up.


Nice banding, still not a of rotation however, but in time... I think this will be a real player. The next wave behind 93 is looking somewhat impressive, has significantly more vorticity than 93. Anyway, we finally have something good to watch!
Member Since: 1 janvier 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
-looks at watch, sees people saying its disorganized, doesn't have a chance, chances are decreasing for development-

Will we ever learn? This morning it was 'TD by tomorrow'..

I guess we'll never get the whole 'Durinal effects' across.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
1824. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I actually liked the Star Trek flick in which they went back in time to save the humpback whales.
KAHN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


There be whales! (Who said that?)
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
here is the low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Despite what the models say, 93L has a nice presentation on visible satellite. Infrared imagery doesn't show very organized convection, but the cloud pattern has improved all day. A surface low is present, the cloud pattern proves it. However, it is just going to take a little while to establish a closed center of circulation, if it ever does.
Not so sure that there is a surface low.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Its amazing how impatient some are lol
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Quoting Grothar:
Nice twisting, but I think it has a way to go before we see anything important. Not much heavy convection yet. Still disorganized.




actually its getting organized without the conv right now expect convection tonight
Member Since: 13 juillet 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
There is not that much occurring on the surface. That could change late tonight.
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70 mph winds recorded in Tampa with this t-storm.
Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1816. IKE
Surface low has been dropped on the 18Z map.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1815. pottery
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Hold it. The curtain must have the proper images. Where did you find them. The number 7 is powerful indeed but without the fish the curtain is powerless.

This is Bad News.
I had up the wrong designs completely.
No wonder I have been attracting the stuff for 2 weeks......
Anyone want 7 'my little pony' shower curtains, slightly used?
Gonna be a busy day tomorrow, locating the "approved" version.
This weather thing is so dam confusing.........
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1814. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:
can I get a "near zero percent"?


Only on your math finals. LOL
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Pretty much nothing let. We'll see how it does later tonight....

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
93L has a long way to go IMO
Indeed.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Despite what the models say, 93L has a nice presentation on visible satellite. Infrared imagery doesn't show very organized convection, but the cloud pattern has improved all day. A surface low is present, the cloud pattern proves it. However, it is just going to take a little while to establish a closed center of circulation, if it ever does.
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Quoting btwntx08:

a bo bo by the nhc
Why? I see no proof of a low at the surface.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Grothar:
Nice twisting, but I think it has a way to go before we see anything important. Not much heavy convection yet. Still disorganized.






agreed
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1807. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

a bo bo by the nhc


So anything negative toward anything developing...you throw out.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1806. Grothar
Nice twisting, but I think it has a way to go before we see anything important. Not much heavy convection yet. Still disorganized.



Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
93L has a long way to go IMO
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Quoting btwntx08:

a bo bo by the nhc



whats see what the next two say i i think red or they up it too 50%
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
I actually liked the Star Trek flick in which they went back in time to save the humpback whales.
KAHN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11394
Quoting Seastep:
Low is gone from the 18Z surface map.


a bo bo by the nhc
Member Since: 13 juillet 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting Tazmanian:
18z not even on the nc page that map most be from sunday so its old

has of 2:05pm



no that run was the current one he posted
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1800. Seastep
Quoting Tazmanian:
18z not even on the nc page that map most be from sunday so its old

has of 2:05pm



Link
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1799. xcool
free of speechfree of speech
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
18z not even on the nc page that map most be from sunday so its old

has of 2:05pm

Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
People are going complaining about the gfs not showing anything.But when it does you all still complain.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


You do realize that 92L had a closed low for about 12 hours, right? Regardless, closed low or not, the system never became a named system and 92L stayed an open wave for the majority of its life (as the GFS suggested).

yea but it never showed a closed low on the run eventhough it didnt develop
Member Since: 13 juillet 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting MississippiWx:


You do realize that 92L had a closed low for about 12 hours, right? Regardless, closed low or not, the system never became a named system and 92L stayed an open wave for the majority of its life (as the GFS suggested).


exactly and the ECMWF developed it for part of the time, I would say both models did a good job with 92L but the GFS did better

I am just tired of always seeing people say the models need to be thrown out if they dont develop something
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1794. IKE
Quoting Seastep:
Low is gone from the 18Z surface map.



Well...either that was quick or the charts can't be trusted.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1793. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The later I stay up...the worse my spelling gets. I'm usually in bed by 10:00 p.m. Between you and Tim this morning...threw me totally off my normal schedule.


But at least we were on when history was being made last night. We were witness to a cyclogeneis, not unlike Star Trek II, The Wrath of Khan. Everyone else was so surprised to see 93L. We knew it was coming before anybody else. Doesn't that frost your cookie a little??
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
On the RGB if you look at the lower layers just south near the SA continent, there is clear evidence of circulation, as some clouds are actually moving north-east into the eastern side of the wave.

Evidence of circulation
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BTW...Max Mayfield said 93L headed towards the Yucatan.
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11394
1790. Seastep
Low is gone from the 18Z surface map.

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1789. IKE
18Z GFS @ 168 hours....

Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting DestinJeff:


along the gulf coast they are deploying boom to deflect oil, while in the Carribbean these are being deployed to deflect Tropical Cyclones from developing:

BEHOLD!:
Destinjeff you wonna take a swim with the fishes?.They are well trained.Lol.Just kidding.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

92L had a closed low and the gfs said no it was spliting so it makes the gfs a F+ and ecmwf A+


You do realize that 92L had a closed low for about 12 hours, right? Regardless, closed low or not, the system never became a named system and 92L stayed an open wave for the majority of its life (as the GFS suggested).
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actually its better to just link the gfs not post it sry
Member Since: 13 juillet 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
1785. xcool
LOL
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Ok I think we have some on here that are so desperate for something to track they are making incorrect statements about things

Well after last season some people may be really desperate......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The later I stay up...the worse my spelling gets. I'm usually in bed by 10:00 p.m. Between you and Tim this morning...threw me totally off my normal schedule.
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11394
Quoting Hurricanes101:


again it is failing because it doesnt show development?

Remember it beat the ECMWF head to head with 90L and it did very well with 92L

Either way, just because a forecast model doesnt develop something, does not mean it is wrong or out to lunch or crazy


92L had a closed low and the gfs said no it was spliting so it makes the gfs a F+ and ecmwf A+
Member Since: 13 juillet 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting Drakoen:


That wasn't a hurricane and a bunch of other models showed the same thing.
Well it certainly was a strong subtropical storm, but like you said it fooled many models too.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1779. Drakoen
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
When you think about it the ECMWF hasn't done fantastic either. It did well on 92L and 91L but took 90L to a hurricane.


That wasn't a hurricane and a bunch of other models showed the same thing.
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30602
Quoting Hurricanes101:


again it is failing because it doesnt show development?

Remember it beat the ECMWF head to head with 90L and it did very well with 92L

Either way, just because a forecast model doesnt develop something, does not mean it is wrong or out to lunch or crazy

True, but it does seem kind of odd to not see the GFS developing 93L. But like you said, that isn't reason to not post the model.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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