Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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2401. Drakoen 00:53 GMT le 22 juin 2010
RAMSDIS satellite loops shows a lower to mid level cyclonic circulation just south of 15N near 70W. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2402. 1900hurricane 00:53 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I noticed the ECMWF shifted back west at the 12Z run, which is more in line with its ensemble members. Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10369

2403. Unfriendly 00:53 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Yes a closed circulation, but it also has to be tight too. thats what he said... Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 287

2404. tropicfreak 00:54 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting watchingnva: you, my friend, are not slIck...:) like how i did that?...yea...lol evening watch, yet another quiet night in the old dominion, although not the case for the tropics. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2405. Grothar 00:54 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: No southeast Fla. though. A major shift in steering currents would have to happen. Not likely. Models have been shifting slightly to the right on each run. Why did the ECMWF drop it altogether? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

2406. tropicfreak 00:54 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Unfriendly: thats what he said... Thanks, whats with ur user name. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2409. will45 00:55 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I think that the vertical stacking of the system will have a lot to do with the tracks.If it stays shallow it may not feel any weakness that it would have to the north. Member Since: 18 juillet 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994

2410. MiamiHurricanes09 00:55 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Comments posted a minute (averaged). 7:00 PM EDT - 8:00 PM EDT: 4.55 comments posted a minute. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2411. GetReal 00:55 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Recent ship report under 93L!!! Eagle Anaheim Last reported at 2010-Jun-21 17:00 UTC. Time now 2010-Jun-22 00:50 UTC. Position N 13°36', W 070°06'. Wind from 350 at 13 knots Waves 1.5 meters (5 feet), 4 second period Barometer 1012.0 mb Air temperature 28.0 ° C Dewpoint 26.7 ° C Water temperature 25.0 ° C Member Since: 4 juillet 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8196

2414. tropicfreak 00:57 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Comments posted a minute (averaged). 7:00 PM EDT - 8:00 PM EDT: 4.55 comments posted a minute. Wow just wait until we have a major hurricane bearing down on the CONUS. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2416. watchingnva 00:57 GMT le 22 juin 2010
we have an invest...we will see if we have more in the next few days..really hoped we could get some evening storms around here...nothing like rain cooled air after a scorcher of a day.... Member Since: 7 septembre 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

2417. BenBIogger 00:58 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting IKE: Comebacks.... (1)Downcaster (2)Troll (3)Ignored LOL, I can't disagree with (1). Member Since: 19 Mars 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

2418. pottery 00:58 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting GetReal: Recent ship report under 93L!!! Eagle Anaheim Last reported at 2010-Jun-21 17:00 UTC. Time now 2010-Jun-22 00:50 UTC. Position N 13°36', W 070°06'. Wind from 350 at 13 knots Waves 1.5 meters (5 feet), 4 second period Barometer 1012.0 mb Air temperature 28.0 ° C Dewpoint 26.7 ° C Water temperature 25.0 ° C Water temp. 25c ??? Strange.... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

2419. spathy 00:58 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Ike I think Ignore would be a better response. Or as far as that poster is concerned a Bitter response. Member Since: 8 juin 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10490

2421. MiamiHurricanes09 00:58 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting F4PHANTOM: Such as TVCN? Exactly. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2422. tropicfreak 00:59 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting watchingnva: we have an invest...we will see if we have more in the next few days..really hoped we could get some evening storms around here...nothing like rain cooled air after a scorcher of a day.... yep and guess what, the heat shows no sign of letting up in the next 7 days, with a 20-30% chance of a pop-up t'storm. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2423. Unfriendly 00:59 GMT le 22 juin 2010
its an old, old handle... had it for years. Not really that unfriendly, even offered to go check on someones dad that lived close to me during the b2b blizzards - we had around 45 inches on the ground at one point. Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 287

2427. weathersp 01:00 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting pottery: Water temp. 25c ??? Strange.... North Winds... Member Since: 14 janvier 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112

2428. Grothar 01:00 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: Have you heard anything about alex1991hurricane? I wonder if he is getting better:( Hope you are joking? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

2429. tropicfreak 01:01 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: thats slow sheesh, LEGIT!!!! Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2431. TampaSpin 01:01 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Amazing how you hit the -minus sign or hide how much you reduce the size of the blog!...LOL Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2432. Drakoen 01:01 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Convection is bare but the structure is excellent: Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2433. MiamiHurricanes09 01:02 GMT le 22 juin 2010
New Comments a minute (averaged) 8:00* PM EDT - 9:00 PM EDT: 4.35 comments posted a minute. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2436. CaneWarning 01:02 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: Anybody know how alex1991 is doing? That's not a very nice thing to say. Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

2437. pottery 01:02 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting weathersp: North Winds... 25C is about 78F. That is cooler than I thought . What's up with that? ???? Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

2438. tropicfreak 01:03 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Convection is bare but the structure is excellent: yeah ur right Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2439. MiamiHurricanes09 01:03 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Convection is bare but the structure is excellent: Agreed. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2440. Grothar 01:03 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Amazing how you hit the -minus sign or hide how much you reduce the size of the blog!...LOL Just hit "Show Best" and everyone disappears. Try it. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

2441. 1900hurricane 01:04 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting F4PHANTOM: And only a TS at the end of the run. ??? On this run, yes. However, NWS Houston/Galveston put out a very good statement earlier: AS FOR EXTENDED GUIDANCE...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYS- TEM/SOMETHING FOR NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS TRACK AS IT NEARS THE YUCATAN...BUT THEN THINGS GET SHAKY FOR ITS EVENTUAL MOTION WITHIN THE GULF. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE PROGS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE SRN STATES. LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS CRP IN ITS SIGHTS BUT THIS SHOULD/IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AS THE DAYS GO ON. Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10369

2442. Stormchaser2007 01:04 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting pottery: 25C is about 78F. That is cooler than I thought . What's up with that? ???? Its not right. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2444. tropicfreak 01:04 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Convection is bare but the structure is excellent: its going through DMin. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2446. stormwatcherCI 01:04 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting CaneWarning: That's not a very nice thing to say. Why ? Maybe everyone does not know what is going I since I don't know either. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

2447. pottery 01:04 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: I dont buy the water temp of 25C... That's like half way to the arctic... It cant be right. Where is that ship?? Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

2448. BaltOCane 01:04 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting CaneWarning: That's not a very nice thing to say. I hadn't heard either. Not all of us are on here 24/7. I assume the worst? Member Since: 19 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 411

2449. MiamiHurricanes09 01:05 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Its not right. It's actually 77˚F. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2450. watchingnva 01:05 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting tropicfreak: yep and guess what, the heat shows no sign of letting up in the next 7 days, with a 20-30% chance of a pop-up t'storm. and we really wont have that great of a shot of rain unless a weakening complex coming from the ohio valley makes it over the mountains... realistically, the next decent chance for rain isn't till the end of the month 28th-1st....we will see, also...we aren't forecast to get under 90 as a high till possibly the 29th-30th...lol summer is definitely here... Member Since: 7 septembre 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

2451. SavannahStorm 01:05 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting pottery: Water temp. 25c ??? Strange.... Could be a combination of north winds and upwelling. Or a could be a badly calibrated digital thermometer... Member Since: 22 septembre 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2135

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