Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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2451. SavannahStorm 01:05 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting pottery: Water temp. 25c ??? Strange.... Could be a combination of north winds and upwelling. Or a could be a badly calibrated digital thermometer... Member Since: 22 septembre 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2135

2452. TampaSpin 01:06 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Brother just ventured into the GOM near Ocala today....water temp on the boat was a blistering 91.7deg he told me just a few minutes ago....OUCH! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2453. MiamiHurricanes09 01:06 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Its not right. Oh oh, I get what you were saying. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2454. tropicfreak 01:06 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting watchingnva: and we really wont have that great of a shot of rain unless a weakening complex coming from the ohio valley makes it over the mountains... realistically, the next decent chance for rain isn't till the end of the month 28th-1st....we will see, also...we aren't forecast to get under 90 as a high till possibly the 29th-30th...lol summer is definitely here... as schools out, here comes the heat. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2456. Skyepony (Mod) 01:07 GMT le 22 juin 2010
For 93L I'm thinking Tropical Storm, cat 1 at most. Conditions aren't as good as they appear & the real show is behind it at ~58W. Check the 850 vort map. 58W is further along in surface spin & an anticyclone is building over it, not 93L. 93L is just enjoying diffluence aloft being on the west edge of it. Also the air will cool over 58W first, giving it the advantage each night as they compete for water vapor. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29357

2457. MiamiHurricanes09 01:07 GMT le 22 juin 2010
June 21, 2010 Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2458. MiamiHurricanes09 01:08 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting skepticall2: Talk to him everyday he doesn't come on here anymore for obvious reasons. Why? Please e-mail me. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2459. ALlisa 01:08 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Hey guys and gals. Been a lurker for several years now and just want to say thanks for all of your input. Special kudos to Storm, Taz, Patrap, Tampaspin, drakoen, weather456 and i am sure i have missed more but you guys (could be gals) rock and do a great job! I am in Mobile and a little concerned with the hurricane forecast this year! Will be on this blog often. Thanks again, very much appreciated :-)...at least most are! Member Since: 12 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 9

2460. Stormchaser2007 01:08 GMT le 22 juin 2010
29c is better: Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2461. SavannahStorm 01:08 GMT le 22 juin 2010
New SST anomaly chart today.... Ouch... Member Since: 22 septembre 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2135

2462. futuremet 01:09 GMT le 22 juin 2010
93L needs a more vigorous surface circulation. The anticyclone over it and anomalously warm sea surface temperatures should aid convection during diurnal maximum. I expect to see a more defined surface circulation tomorrow. Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

2464. LongBeachNY 01:09 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting clwstmchasr: A lot of elements are in place for a significant hurricane if this were to develop. The one element against it is climatology. I haven't looked it up but I'm guessing there has been very few major canes in June. Well the very few there have been, have been in the exact area (Alex) will be heading... With 30c water temps an low shear whats stopping a major hurricane? Normally climatically speaking it would be cooler water temps and high shear. So basically we are looking at a scenario that more closely resembles August or September in a "normal" season. Member Since: 18 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 45

2467. weatherfan92 01:10 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Convection is bare but the structure is excellent: DMax should help get convection going overnight. It will be interesting in the morning.

2468. hydrus 01:10 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting skepticall2: Talk to him everyday he doesn't come on here anymore for obvious reasons. lol Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

2470. ElConando 01:10 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: June 21, 2010 There is a tiny area in orange on the map. South of Haiti. Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

2471. 10Speed 01:11 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I'm believing my eyes. As long as the shear keeps it up, 93 and nothing behind it is going to penetrate into the western Carib or GOM. Member Since: 14 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 109

2473. futuremet 01:12 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I have been tracking tropical cyclones only since 2005. Have any of you seen SSTs this warm in the Atlantic? FSU COAPS: SST Records Since 1980 Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

2474. centex 01:12 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting futuremet: 93L needs a more vigorous surface circulation. The anticyclone over it and anomalously warm sea surface temperatures should aid convection during diurnal maximum. I expect to see a more defined surface circulation tomorrow. right, ciculation is little mentioned but most important factor. Member Since: 10 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

2475. Stormchaser2007 01:12 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting 10Speed: I'm believing my eyes. As long as the shear keeps it up, 93 and nothing behind it is going to penetrate into the western Carib or GOM. LOL Are you from The Weather Channel? There is no shear in the WCARB. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2476. MiamiHurricanes09 01:13 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting futuremet: 93L needs a more vigorous surface circulation. The anticyclone over it and anomalously warm sea surface temperatures should aid convection during diurnal maximum. I expect to see a more defined surface circulation tomorrow. I agree. Many things in favor. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2478. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:14 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

2479. Patrap 01:15 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

2480. Ameister12 01:15 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: June 21, 2010 That's amazing. Isn't it. Member Since: 9 août 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3518

2481. futuremet 01:15 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I agree. Many things in favor. Once intense surface convection starts occurring, cyclonic curvature due to coriolis force will take place. Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

2482. stormwatcherCI 01:16 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting skepticall2: Talk to him everyday he doesn't come on here anymore for obvious reasons. ????? It's not obvious to me. I have no idea what happened to him. The last thing I knew was that someone who said she is his sister said he was doing okay. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

2483. xcool 01:16 GMT le 22 juin 2010
rotation on visible 15.0n/ 68.5w ? Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

2484. MiamiHurricanes09 01:17 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2485. tropicfreak 01:17 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: LOL Are you from The Weather Channel? There is no shear in the WCARB. Shes probably Alexandra Steele, the hot but not so smart woman. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2486. Ameister12 01:17 GMT le 22 juin 2010
50 pages in less than a day. Can't wait to see how pages we get in a day with a major hurricane. Member Since: 9 août 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3518

2488. Skyepony (Mod) 01:18 GMT le 22 juin 2010
StormW~ 18zGFS doesn't develop 93L. Do you think that is how it will play out? Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29357

2489. Patrap 01:18 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Note the CoC becoming evident Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

2490. midgulfmom 01:18 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Lurking and learning. Thanks Skyepony, I always enjoy your insightful postings. Member Since: 9 juillet 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

2492. futuremet 01:19 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Ameister12: 50 pages in less than a day. Can't wait to see how pages we get in a day with a major hurricane. Everything will be okay if the trolls stay away. This year has been good so far troll-wise. Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

2493. MiamiHurricanes09 01:19 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting futuremet: Once intense surface convection starts occurring, cyclonic curvature due to coriolis force* will take place.* That will help tighten up that circulation and push 93L to tropical depression status. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2494. Patrap 01:19 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Also note the Blowup of Convection Nw of the Developing CoC. Thats the ventilation. As well as to the Ne ..its improved steadily too Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

2496. clwstmchasr 01:20 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Patrap: Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Note the CoC becoming evident What Lat/Lon cause I don't see a center. Member Since: 29 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2759

2497. midgulfmom 01:20 GMT le 22 juin 2010
StormW! looking forward to your post! Member Since: 9 juillet 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

2498. MiamiHurricanes09 01:20 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting futuremet: Everything will be okay if the trolls stay away. This year has been good so far troll-wise. So far. Wait until September. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2499. clwstmchasr 01:21 GMT le 22 juin 2010
What is Joe B's take on 93L? Member Since: 29 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2759

2500. centex 01:22 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Patrap: Also note the Blowup of Convection Nw of the Developing CoC. Thats the ventilation. pin point it please, very disorganized. Member Since: 10 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

2501. Patrap 01:22 GMT le 22 juin 2010
0045 UTC 2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

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