Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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2551. TampaSpin 01:42 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting weatherwatcher12: It is not disorganized. Well convection wise maybe, but structurally as Drak said it is excellent. EXCELLENT.....there is hardly much at 850mb Vorticity....that is not an Excellent sign IMO! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2552. fire635 01:42 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Grothar: From this image, it won't probably be long before it starts trying to wrap around that large circulation. I agree... its definitely setting the stage.. soon (relatively speaking) it should start to wrap around and consolidate Member Since: 24 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 478

2553. futuremet 01:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: ONe can see on the Wind Barbs that a Surface Low is forming.....HERE WE GO! It still seems to be an inverted trough. I see no significant west winds at the southern side. Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

2554. tropicfreak 01:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
GUYS WE ARE GOING THROUGH DMIN, DON'T WRITE THIS OFF JUST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKENING, WHAT ARE YOU THINKING, IT WILL HIT DMAX SOON. IT DOESN"T TAKE LESS THAN A DAY TO FORM BE PATIENT!!!!!! Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2555. JRRP 01:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Amazing how accurate they are. Time for the shutters. Lol. jejejeje Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4303

2557. MiamiHurricanes09 01:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: EXCELLENT.....there is hardly much at 850mb Vorticity....that is not an Excellent sign IMO! We are speaking about structure. Anyways there is a weak broad area of low pressure at the surface, just take a look at the TWD. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2559. scott39 01:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Why did the intensity models drop after 108 hours? Is there some help in the GOM to knock 93L down some after developement? Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

2560. BenBIogger 01:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting bappit: Yep, very disorganized, like you say Centex. I'm inclined to write this one off. No center, no nothing. Agree. Member Since: 19 Mars 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

2561. Tropicsweatherpr 01:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
KEEPEROFTHEGATE,does 93L getting close to TCFA status? Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8094

2562. CosmicEvents 01:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting tropicfreak: GUYS WE ARE GOING THROUGH DMIN, DON'T WRITE THIS OFF JUST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKENING, WHAT ARE YOU THINKING, IT WILL HIT DMAX SOON. IT DOESN"T TAKE LESS THAN A DAY TO FORM BE PATIENT!!!!!! It doesn't help them spin no matter how much you YELL at them. Member Since: 3 août 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5093

2565. weatherwatcher12 01:45 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting tropicfreak: GUYS WE ARE GOING THROUGH DMIN, DON'T WRITE THIS OFF JUST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKENING, WHAT ARE YOU THINKING, IT WILL HIT DMAX SOON. IT DOESN"T TAKE LESS THAN A DAY TO FORM BE PATIENT!!!!!! It's not weakening, it remains structurally sound. It is even improving in organization. Member Since: 16 mai 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

2567. Patrap 01:45 GMT le 22 juin 2010
www.hurricanecity.com/closeup 98L Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

2568. tropicfreak 01:46 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: people are jsut doing that cuz they want to stir up crap Exactly Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2569. Hurricanes101 01:46 GMT le 22 juin 2010
This is going to be a painfully long season with all of this back and forth and misinformation Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2570. pottery 01:46 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents: It doesn't help them spin no matter how much you YELL at them. Brilliant! Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20702

2571. Grothar 01:46 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: this storm may have a pin wheel eye if it ever gets up the hurricane status I hope not, but it is a large system. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19488

2572. mcluvincane 01:46 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting scott39: Why did the intensity models drop after 108 hours? Is there some help in the GOM to knock 93L down some after developement? Member Since: 2 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

2573. Abacosurf 01:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl _uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010062100!!!step/ Member Since: 28 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 911

2575. ryang 01:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Vorticity increasing Member Since: 25 août 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12333

2576. Drakoen 01:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Looks like wewe will be getting a Windsat pass tonight on the system Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2578. Grothar 01:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting futuremet: It still seems to be an inverted trough. I see no significant west winds at the southern side. Could that be because the Southern periphery is so close to a land mass? Would that prevent it? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19488

2579. MiamiHurricanes09 01:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Great structure, weak convection. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2580. tropicfreak 01:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting rcmansour: 93L RIP I should ban u all for counting it off when it still has a great structure. For god's sake it is nighttime t'storms don't flare up that well. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2581. scott39 01:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting rcmansour: 93L RIP please refain from making idiotic statements! Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

2582. TampaSpin 01:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: We are speaking about structure. Anyways there is a weak broad area of low pressure at the surface, just take a look at the TWD. NO System is structurally sound without Vorticity and this has little Vorticity any any level......WEATHER 101!!!!!!! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2583. extreme236 01:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting BenBIogger: Agree. Lol yeah. Write off something that just formed practically this morning. NHC in the TWD said a surface circulation is trying to form. Not like shear is about 5-10 kts and the waters are warm or anything right? Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

2584. MiamiHurricanes09 01:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Looks like wewe will be getting a Windsat pass tonight on the system Not ASCAT though, probably will pass west of the system. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2585. JRRP 01:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Patrap: www.hurricanecity.com/closeup 98L you meant 93L Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4303

2586. iluvjess 01:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Is portlight offering any relief to the Gulf Coast victims of the oil disaster?

2587. LongBeachNY 01:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I dunno. Quoting weatherwatcher12: It's not weakening, it remains structurally sound. It is even improving in organization. I dunno, checking the buoy data down there I really do not see how the structure is improving. Pressure is up and the winds (which were never over 20 knots dropped.) Still a loooong way to go Member Since: 18 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 45

2588. MiamiHurricanes09 01:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: NO System is structurally sound without Vorticity and this has little Vorticity any any level......WEATHER 101!!!!!!! No idea what you just wrote. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2589. SouthDadeFish 01:50 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: NO System is structurally sound without Vorticity and this has little Vorticity any any level......WEATHER 101!!!!!!! Where do you get this from? Some chart? Look at satellite. You can see its trying to acquire a circulation. The NHC said so themselves. Don't just go by charts. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2413

2590. Patrap 01:50 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting JRRP: you meant 93L TYVM Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

2591. tropicfreak 01:50 GMT le 22 juin 2010
yeah 5 knots of shear is ripping apart 93L for sure. LOL Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2592. stillwaiting 01:50 GMT le 22 juin 2010
any LLC is west of 70w IMO,closer to 71w,of course just south of 15n.... Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

2593. frostynugs 01:50 GMT le 22 juin 2010
please refrain from quoting idiotic statements! the little - works quite well in hiding people like that. Member Since: 25 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 217

2594. kmanislander 01:51 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Good evening The John Hope rule survives another challenge. 70W and still no classification for 93L. The overall envelope looks much better tonight even though deep convection is lacking. That should be the next item on the agenda Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2595. TampaSpin 01:51 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Don't get me wrong i think 93L is about to get its act together but, to say its Structure is Excellent without Vorticity much at all i don't differ to agree with. Sorry! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2596. taco2me61 01:51 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting rcmansour: 93L RIP Well I was just thinking the Blog was being ok tonight and then this and I thought "What Ever" I think we all need to watch this because if it goes into the Gulf, it will be "Bad". Very Very Bad.... Thats for everyone on the Gulf Coast.... No matter if you live in TX all the way across to FL... Taco :o) Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

2597. Patrap 01:53 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Portlight Disaster Relief Last Updated: 1:33 PM CDT on June 02, 2010 Last Comment: 3:24 PM CDT on June 03, 2010 Portlight Receives Reeve Foundation Grant Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

2598. MiamiHurricanes09 01:53 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Don't get me wrong i think 93L is about to get its act together but, to say its Structure is Excellent without Vorticity much at all i don't differ to agree with. Sorry! We are talking about structure on satellite, you on the other hand or talking about some charts and vorticity. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2599. xcool 01:53 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2600. txag91met 01:53 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting SouthDadeFish: Where do you get this from? Some chart? Look at satellite. You can see its trying to acquire a circulation. The NHC said so themselves. Don't just go by charts. There is negative vorticity aloft... Member Since: 30 janvier 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 723

2601. MiamiHurricanes09 01:55 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting txag91met: There is negative vorticity aloft... You don't seem to understand that we are judging this "excellent" structure on satellite not on other products. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

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