Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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2703. CosmicEvents 02:19 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting CaneWarning: Is that an almost closed low? Almost...not quite. You could say it's almost almost. Member Since: 3 août 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5129

2704. CaneWarning 02:19 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: Perhaps they should set comments on Dr Master's blog so that everyone can read, but only those with an average, or maybe even above average rating can actually post. How can someone ever get average or above average though if they can't post? Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

2705. MiamiHurricanes09 02:19 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: I don't care how old he his......He needs to make sure when he challenges someones post he knows what he is talking about....thats all...AGE MAKES NO DIFFERENCE ON THIS BLOG! Before I leave I will like to make it clear that I don't come here to "challenge" people. I might come back, but don't count on it. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2706. Hurricanes101 02:19 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting BaltOCane: exactly, well said. sorry not eveyone one here knows every single person who is a Met in and around the US and VI. The Egos in this place are ridiculous. exactly, I was not aware the person I was responding too was a professional met I still stand by my opinion though that satellite imagery can suggest things that maps do not see Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

2708. Patrap 02:20 GMT le 22 juin 2010
.."The Invest's the same in a relative way, but yer older".. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

2709. midgulfmom 02:20 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Patrap: ..Itsa Crude, Crude Summer.. OMG..Patrap..now I won't be able to get that outta my head! ha ha ha..Good one! and good to c you and tks for all the graphics.. Member Since: 9 juillet 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

2710. miamiamiga 02:20 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting CapeObserver: From what I can see the kid is just regurgitating some of the things that have been said on here by the older and wiser. Granted, he is only 13, but he has a fairly decent knowledge base for his age. Many of our future mets have started out on this blog. We are all here to read and learn. So you're older and wiser and have more experience, why not foster our youth rather than squashing them like a bug. Amen. Member Since: 6 mai 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 115

2711. reedzone 02:20 GMT le 22 juin 2010
A map I made on the short term look of 93Ls future. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7249

2712. Tazmanian 02:21 GMT le 22 juin 2010
they gave 95E a 60% ch wish is high A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... 60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. i wounder why they did not do the same for 93L Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111610

2713. Drakoen 02:21 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Right now I am favoring the GFDL track of this system which is both reasonable in intensity and track. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

2714. HaboobsRsweet 02:21 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting CapeObserver: From what I can see the kid is just regurgitating some of the things that have been said on here by the older and wiser. Granted, he is only 13, but he has a fairly decent knowledge base for his age. Many of our future mets have started out on this blog. We are all here to read and learn. So you're older and wiser and have more experience, why not foster our youth rather than squashing them like a bug. yea mine wasnt really towards Miami...I like his input but sometimes him and others attack just like we do from time to time. To say we are dumb for RIPing a storm when we also just voice our opinion is just as wrong as I or somoene else would be to jump on him or any younger forecaster. Actually makes me feel bad when I am right after they jump all over me but it is all good. My feeling are never hurt that bad haha that is why I dont believe in ignoring anyone. I got destroyed for what i said about 92L but in the end...I will just leave it at that. Member Since: 20 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

2715. Patrap 02:21 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting midgulfmom: OMG..Patrap..now I won't be able to get that outta my head! ha ha ha..Good one! and good to c you and tks for all the graphics.. Hello there..good to see yas too. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

2716. PensacolaNative 02:21 GMT le 22 juin 2010
PATRAP, looks like were gonna have one of those seasons..........Weather wise.... Wen't fishing at beach Saturday and the water was great! Member Since: 7 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 24

2717. midgulfmom 02:22 GMT le 22 juin 2010
StormW...LMAO...good one! Member Since: 9 juillet 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

2718. SouthDadeFish 02:22 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting StormW: I really believe it will get going once it gets away from South America...this may help: IR2 LOOP Looking at that loop what do you think about a possible center trying to form at 15N 69W? Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2441

2719. pottery 02:22 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting SouthDadeFish: Well idk what you wanna call it but I don't think its hindering the system as the developing center is much farther west in an area of low shear. I just don't think its hindering the system at all, but I could see why you would think that. The NHC themselves said conditions are favorable. OK. Much appreciated. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

2721. Patrap 02:22 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting PensacolaNative: PATRAP, looks like were gonna have one of those seasons..........Weather wise.... Wen't fishing at beach Saturday and the water was great! Fishing always a good thing in my view. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

2722. TampaSpin 02:22 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting gator23: congrats Tampa, you "GEESHED!" a 13 year old. First of all i did not know he was 13 but, that really makes no difference on this blog! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

2723. AllStar17 02:23 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I have posted a quick new blog. Please comment. Link Member Since: 29 juin 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5145

2725. connie1976 02:23 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Storm, Miami is always nice to me like you are..... I think because he is 13, he might take this blog thing seriously and actually get his feelings hurt.... Member Since: 1 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672

2726. gator23 02:23 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: First of all i did not know he was 13 but, that really makes no difference on this blog! no it doesn't you GEESH everyone, daily. Just like the Marlins GEESHED the snot out of the Rays. Member Since: 26 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2028

2727. JRRP 02:24 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4357

2728. HaboobsRsweet 02:25 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Welcome to weather folks...didnt you know a weathermans worst enemy is another weatherman? Member Since: 20 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

2729. Herbertsbox 02:25 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Just an FYI...all the good Doc has to do is have the administrator write a script for a "highlight poster" function. When you see a poster you like, you click on their name, a post of theirs etc, then have an option to highlight that poster. At that point you could simply highlight all the posters you want to read by quickly scanning for the highlighted names. I've seen it done on several boards. Back to L&L for now Member Since: 19 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 94

2730. SouthDadeFish 02:25 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting pottery: OK. Much appreciated. Glad to have a friendly conversation with you. Hopefully other people can do the same.... Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2441

2731. spathy 02:25 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Wow! From some of the comments on here tonight I am now grateful that my posts were just ignored. Not torn to shreds. But thats WU and I love it! Member Since: 8 juin 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10529

2732. gordydunnot 02:25 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Nothing has really develop yet, so feel free to post one and all.As someone mentioned how will we know if no one gets a chance, all though just remember when it gets rough the one's that don't know for sure need to get going. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2733. CaneWarning 02:25 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Breaking News per CNN: More than 1,000 people are missing in Brazil's Alagoas state due to flooding, Alagoas civil defense officials said. Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

2735. atmoaggie 02:25 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Grothar: Guess, he didn't know what you do! Picked on the wrong one tonight. Yeah, friendly crowd tonight. Wasn't me he picked on... Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2736. Patrap 02:26 GMT le 22 juin 2010
CAlamity.. More than 1,000 people are missing in Brazil's northeastern state of Alagoas due to flooding, Alagoas civil defense officials said. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

2737. JLPR2 02:26 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I see the blog is a little intense tonight :\ Relax people And hello ^^ Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7526

2740. Grothar 02:27 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Patrap: .."The Invest's the same in a relative way, but yer older".. And has more insurance! Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19637

2741. CaneWarning 02:27 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting gator23: no it doesn't you GEESH everyone, daily. Just like the Marlins GEESHED the snot out of the Rays. The Rays may leave St. Pete. Did anyone else see that? Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

2743. Grothar 02:28 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: Wasn't me he picked on... Just standing guard on my friends, atmo! Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19637

2744. Patrap 02:28 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Fresca and Beam.. Not too shabby, mmmmn..ahhhhhh Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

2745. CypressJim08 02:28 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: First of all i did not know he was 13 but, that really makes no difference on this blog! I am surprised you didn't take your cowbell out and ring it in his face...especially since you haven't been able to use it over the last three weeks. Member Since: 4 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 28

2746. TampaSpin 02:28 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting reedzone: A map I made on the short term look of 93Ls future. Nice map but, it looks like your Sheer might be off slightly....does not reach that far West currently..... Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

2747. pottery 02:29 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting SouthDadeFish: Glad to have a friendly conversation with you. Hopefully other people can do the same.... True! Thanks. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

2748. skook 02:29 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Don't get me wrong i think 93L is about to get its act together but, to say its Structure is Excellent without Vorticity much at all i don't differ to agree with. Sorry! I'm pretty sure you think every wave is gonna get its act together. Member Since: 10 août 2009 Posts: 11 Comments: 333

2749. SouthDadeFish 02:29 GMT le 22 juin 2010
93L seems to wanna focus its convection over the possible developing center the NHC mentioned at 14N 72W. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2441

2750. Hurricanes101 02:29 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Grothar: Just standing guard on my friends, atmo! lol I didnt pick on anyone what I said is true and I stand by it. I was not aware that person was a met, again its not obvious to everyone on the blog who is or is not a professional maybe there should be an icon next to a posters name so we can tell Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

2751. alaina1085 02:30 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I thought days of our lives ended at 5:00?!?! Anywho, just watching 93L... its definately coming along. Testing everyones patience I see. :) Carry on... (grabs popcorn) Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234

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