Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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2801. zoomiami 02:40 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Hi Orca -- how's the halo going? Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065

2802. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 02:40 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565

2803. Tazmanian 02:40 GMT le 22 juin 2010
can i say ripcaster lol Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354

2804. charlottefl 02:40 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Definitely more spin tonight. Although convection has almost completely died off. Should be interesting to see what DMAX tonight brings. Member Since: 18 décembre 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

2805. Orcasystems 02:40 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting zoomiami: Hi Orca -- how's the halo going? Still shiny... sounds like I missed all the fun... AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

2806. midgulfmom 02:40 GMT le 22 juin 2010
"This blog is a mix of qualified mets, self appointed mets and wannabe mets." -KMAN What about the anxiety-ridden neurotic Hurricane survivors/monitors...THAT'S ME! :p Member Since: 9 juillet 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

2807. Tazmanian 02:41 GMT le 22 juin 2010
guys whats get back on 93L Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354

2809. gator23 02:42 GMT le 22 juin 2010
. Member Since: 26 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

2810. connie1976 02:42 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol... Member Since: 1 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672

2811. Patrap 02:42 GMT le 22 juin 2010
RGB still Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

2812. Drakoen 02:42 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting SouthDadeFish: How much longer till? When the data comes into the site and they release it. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2813. Hurricanes101 02:42 GMT le 22 juin 2010
15N 69W looks to me like where some definite rotation is starting to occur Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2814. whipster 02:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Well, here we go again :) Member Since: 14 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 422

2815. atmoaggie 02:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting HaboobsRsweet: Welcome to weather folks...didnt you know a weathermans worst enemy is another weatherman? Hehe. True! Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2816. reedzone 02:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Writing 93L off?? Seriously?? Writing this invest off?? You guys are crazy lol.. Wind shear is 5-10 knots now and ahead of the potential system and you guys write it off? Give it time! Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

2817. kmanislander 02:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting zoomiami: Hi Cape Observer - good to see you. Hi Kman --- see you've been in and out today. Hi there, yes just popping in as time permitted. Plus, there was no immediate threat of any significant short term development. For that I am grateful as the slower it develops the weaker it will be when it gets in our neck of the woods. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2818. CyclonicVoyage 02:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Member Since: 30 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

2819. leo305 02:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
it's not about waning convection, it's the fact its breathing out and getting more organized at the surface that is making the NHC boost its chances. Remember 92L? Well this happened to it a day before it decided to explode(which is when it was ripped apart by shear right after) because it needed to develop a tight surface low, so this is doing just that! It's ganna be an interesting one to track =D Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

2820. aquak9 02:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
hi zoo♥ save some for me, keeper- extra mushrooms please that's all go in peace, carry on Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

2821. jonandrew 02:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting kmanislander: This blog is much like real life. It can be rough and tumble at times. Sometimes we mount a point of view that is not entirely supportable and get pounced upon. However, in the end, friends are still made and respected here. I should know for I have had a run in or two myself. Dust yourself off and pick up the key board once more. These are lessons that will stand you in good stead later on. This blog is a mix of qualified mets, self appointed mets and wannabe mets. It's a hobby to blog, nothing more, nothing less. This evening will be forgotten by tomorrow. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 32

2822. Patrap 02:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting connie1976: I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol... I did stay in a FEMA trailer 27 mth's. Dats like staying in a Holiday Inn Xpress Kinda,..Huh? Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

2824. zoomiami 02:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Some one asked about the models earlier, there are two basics with the models, I usually forget which ones do what-- The first series of models look for the beginning of the disturbance or storm. They predict that a certain area will develop into a tropical system. The NHC, and other mets, look for agreement among several models when forecasting. Once a tropical system forms, the models are then used to determine intensity and track. The better the information entered into the model, the more accurate the tracks. Intensity is still iffy. So the first model runs are not very accurate, the second series more so, and once they start flying in, the models become very accurate. That's why you will see over and over again that anything on the direction of a storm that hasn't formed in basically guess work, and anything more than five days out is no better than throwing a dart. Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065

2825. CaneWarning 02:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting connie1976: I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol... I'm not. Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

2828. KoritheMan 02:45 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting connie1976: I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol... I think very few here are. Member Since: 7 Mars 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 15445

2830. kmanislander 02:45 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting midgulfmom: "This blog is a mix of qualified mets, self appointed mets and wannabe mets." -KMAN What about the anxiety-ridden neurotic Hurricane survivors/monitors...THAT'S ME! :p Oh, forgot those LOL Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2831. gordydunnot 02:45 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Senior Blogger's only a little something from George Thorogood.Linkit is after 10pm Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2832. gator23 02:45 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: The HWRF is out to lunch Member Since: 26 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

2833. jonandrew 02:45 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Very good advice Kman ! Quoting kmanislander: This blog is much like real life. It can be rough and tumble at times. Sometimes we mount a point of view that is not entirely supportable and get pounced upon. However, in the end, friends are still made and respected here. I should know for I have had a run in or two myself. Dust yourself off and pick up the key board once more. These are lessons that will stand you in good stead later on. This blog is a mix of qualified mets, self appointed mets and wannabe mets. It's a hobby to blog, nothing more, nothing less. This evening will be forgotten by tomorrow. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 32

2835. 7544 02:45 GMT le 22 juin 2010
theres a ull over the bahamas thats pushing all the moisture from 93l northward yes fla is going to get some effects lots rain from this but its stilll very iffy on where 93l might head Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

2836. JLPR2 02:46 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting midgulfmom: "This blog is a mix of qualified mets, self appointed mets and wannabe mets." -KMAN What about the anxiety-ridden neurotic Hurricane survivors/monitors...THAT'S ME! :p I guess I sort of qualify for the wanna be met, well... not anymore, but two years ago, yeah... I'm the smileys guy now XD LOl! ^^ Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

2838. PanhandleChuck 02:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: I think very few here are. Cantore just lurks and does not comment. He has to get his info from somewhere (not TWC). LOL Member Since: 13 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

2839. connie1976 02:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Patrap-lol- Cane- neither am I.....lol......... Member Since: 1 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672

2840. gordydunnot 02:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I like xtrap myself if your within 50 to 100 miles. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2841. kmanislander 02:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting jonandrew: Very good advice Kman ! He will be back I am sure. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2842. TampaSpin 02:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Hi there, yes just popping in as time permitted. Plus, there was no immediate threat of any significant short term development. For that I am grateful as the slower it develops the weaker it will be when it gets in our neck of the woods. Keep 1 eye open Kman...nothing really to prevent this from coming together except time it appears but, Mother Nature will tell us soon enough. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2843. gator23 02:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: "I'm not a met, but I play one in wunderground" BAH. Everyone knows I'm no met. and im no Mets fan. Member Since: 26 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

2844. atmoaggie 02:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: I think very few here are. I can think of 6 that are active ATM. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2845. kmanislander 02:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Keep 1 eye open Kman...nothing really to prevent this from coming together except time it appears but, Mother Nature will tell us soon enough. I am watching it like a hawk. I even sleep with one eye open. Felt like @#$% today. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2846. AustinTXWeather 02:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Question: noticed this almost transparent rotation on the last frame of the below animation (right off coast of Africa). Is it not considered significant if it lacks the water vapor? The rotation itself caught my eye. http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=atlantic&channel=ir Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 241

2847. CyclonicVoyage 02:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
What I can gather from CIMMS is that there is a few Vortices spinning around a common low center. Member Since: 30 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

2848. Orcasystems 02:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting connie1976: I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol... I am not a met... I don't even pretend to be one. I look at models and and data sheets. If people want a met... I send them to 456 or StormW. Those are the only two "proven" forecasters I have seen on here. I will make a semi educated guesstimate, and say so at the time. Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

2849. connie1976 02:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
For very few mets being here.....you do better at predicting storms then the experts....lol... Member Since: 1 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672

2850. FLWeatherFreak91 02:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I'm just not feeling like this storm is going to develop. I think that day will flare up and reorganize in a few different ways before we finally get a system out of something later this week. I think we will have development in the western gulf, but I do not think the system we are watching right now is going to develop. If that makes sense.. Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

2851. Patrap 02:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L (Hey, what up Invest?) Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go) Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows Trying on all our GOES,GOES Post's blowing up our phones, phones Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds Pulling up to the Blog-sies Trying to get a little bit tipsy.. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

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