Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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3001. watchdog40 03:31 GMT le 22 juin 2010
3000 posts! omg Member Since: 30 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 42

3002. JVGazeley 03:32 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Good morning from across the Pond; sun is just coming up here in the UK. What've I missed? Seen that NHC has moved 93L up to 50%, assuming that the convection is sorting itself out? How's the wave behind it looking as well? Member Since: 10 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

3003. TampaSpin 03:32 GMT le 22 juin 2010
StormW, i understand what an Anti-cyclone does to help in development...but, what are the outlining factors that an Anti above LOW PRESSURE does exactly! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3004. reedzone 03:32 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I'm not a MET. I almost never wanted to become one after a certain MET pulled his crap on the other website (flhurricane). He showed me how snobby and selfish some METS can be, and I didn't want to be like that. I'm a caring person, I predict what I can. I can be right on the nail, or wayy off. You live and learn as life goes on. No one is smarter or less smarter as the average person, we are all the same. When I become a MET over the next few years, I will never be snobby, always think I'm right, ignore people who I disagree with, and call people noobs. I will respect everyones opinions. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

3005. thelmores 03:32 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I have a degree from Redneck art school...... does that count? :D Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

3007. GainesvilleGator 03:33 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Thelmores (post #2978)- WU wouldn't be the same without you. As always - love the graphics. RobertM320 - you nailed it with post # 2957. Like the old saying - "you live, you learn". If everybody was perfect we would all be stupid. You only get smarter by making mistakes and learning from them. Member Since: 11 septembre 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 732

3008. atmoaggie 03:33 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Atmo why didn't you put yourself on the list? Oh, that was the bonus round guy I couldn't quite remember...wasn't one of the 6 I mentioned the first time. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

3009. Drakoen 03:33 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: Ummm, then more than what you agree to qualify. Haboobs has a BS (I think) from PSU. secret old guy is supremely qualified and experienced (I think). txag91met has a BS (I think). I have a BS (I think) and AMS membership (I think). (a collection of not so vocal mets, it seems) But, really, this is moot. A number of posters in here have picked up so much from each other and through self-directed study that they can rival, and in some cases, exceed, the knowledge and understanding of an average met with a BS...yourself belongs on the short list of exceedingly knowledgeable not-yet-degreed mets. I am not sure about Haboobs or txag91met personally. I knew your were on that list though... lol Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3013. Drakoen 03:35 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting SouthALWX: I concur. The term is strict because the coursework is rigorous. Calculus, Calculus based Physics, and then the MET core. It's hard and those that do it deserve the differentiation and title. You are absolutely correct. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3015. Grothar 03:36 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Lol sorry. I don't consider having a degree in environmental science being a meteorologist. I consider someone a meteorologist who has their bachelors degree or higher in Meteorology. I do respect the AMS/NWA certifications though. And what is your opinion of the WMO? Don't they count? LOL Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19525

3016. Chucktown 03:36 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Don't forget me Atmo - BS in Meteorology from Millersville - doing the TV thang here in Charleston Member Since: 27 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1383

3017. xcool 03:36 GMT le 22 juin 2010
lol rob Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3018. Drakoen 03:36 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Grothar: And what is your opinion of the WMO? Don't they count? LOL Yes they do. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3019. futuremet 03:36 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: Ummm, then more than what you agree to do qualify. Haboobs has a BS (I think) from PSU. secret old guy is supremely qualified and experienced (I think). txag91met has a BS (I think). I have a BS (I think) and AMS membership (I think). (a collection of not so vocal mets, it seems) But, really, this is moot. A number of posters in here have picked up so much from each other and through self-directed study that they can rival, and in some cases, exceed, the knowledge and understanding of an average met with a BS...yourself belongs on the short list of exceedingly knowledgeable not-yet-degreed mets. Indeed. Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

3020. atmoaggie 03:36 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Chucktown: Don't forget me Atmo - BS in Meteorology from Millersville - doing the TV thang here in Charleston Dang, sorry, Chuck! How could I ... Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

3021. txtornado 03:37 GMT le 22 juin 2010
i got a serious question. i see on some of the models, 200mb, 500mb, 850mb and i realize now that these are heights. is there a table available that will convert these for me? i just recently learned that these are heights. anyone?

3022. galvestonhurricane 03:37 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting reedzone: I'm not a MET. I almost never wanted to become one after a certain MET pulled his crap on the other website (flhurricane). He showed me how snobby and selfish some METS can be, and I didn't want to be like that. I'm a caring person, I predict what I can. I can be right on the nail, or wayy off. You live and learn as life goes on. No one is smarter or less smarter as the average person, we are all the same. When I become a MET over the next few years, I will never be snobby, always think I'm right, ignore people who I disagree with, and call people noobs. I will respect everyones opinions. That was a pretty tacky comment... Member Since: 18 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 176

3025. atmoaggie 03:37 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting MechEngMet: BSME here with 18 hrs toward MSME. Pvt Pilot and FAA A&P. 20+ yrs in the Engineering profession. Not a degreed Met but we all took the same physics, chemistry and calculus. Been into the tropics since I was a child. Betsey put a foot of water in the house when I was only a year old (that dates me). My parents hung the crib from the ceiling. Spent most of my life in 70126, 70122, and post Katrina 70002. Been through most of the south LA storms. I lurk mostly, but learn much here. I appreciate all the info and education available here. Thank you all Well, hey there from 70433. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

3026. Grothar 03:37 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: Oh, that was the bonus round guy I couldn't quite remember...wasn't one of the 6 I mentioned the first time. YO! Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19525

3027. Levi32 03:38 GMT le 22 juin 2010
All this talk of METs....would a degree in Atmospheric Sciences count? Because that's what I'm going to get stuck with if I'm forced to stay here in Alaska, which I likely will. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

3028. Houstonia 03:38 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I met Stephen Stills and Graham Nash in an elevator once. Does that count? :-) Quoting connie1976: I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol... Member Since: 20 mai 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 71

3029. StormGoddess 03:39 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting thelmores: You knew it was only a matter of time! LOL OMG help us! Oh wait, that's not a real map. Bustin out LOL! Member Since: 10 juin 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 570

3030. KoritheMan 03:40 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting StormW: Sorry Korie...it was just in reference to what Skye had posted about the upper level anticyclone favoring the area east of the Antilles...the shear forecast maps have been consistent now in 4 runs of it moving back to the west and following 93L. Correct. That's all the more reason to expect 93L to remain dominant, though I still see some moisture ultimately getting entrained into 93L, assisting in development. Member Since: 7 Mars 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15429

3031. Orcasystems 03:40 GMT le 22 juin 2010
La. companies ask judge to end drilling moratorium Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

3032. thelmores 03:40 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: lol this made me laugh I try to liven things up a bit, just don't tell me I am wrong! LOL Glad to see all the old timers, and a nice batch of newcomers as well. Lots of great memories in this blog......like this one! Seagulls Ahhhh..... the good ole days! LOL Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

3033. Drakoen 03:40 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Levi32: All this talk of METs....would a degree in Atmospheric Sciences count? Because that's what I'm going to get stuck with if I'm forced to stay here in Alaska, which I likely will. Yes it will most definitely. I think that's what Atmo has from Texas AMU... If I remember corrrectly :) Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3034. ElConando 03:40 GMT le 22 juin 2010
What's Ryan's handle here? Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

3035. Grothar 03:41 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting thelmores: I have a degree from Redneck art school...... does that count? :D As long as you have paintings of Elvis on black velvet, you're OK in my book. Funny post. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19525

3036. taco2me61 03:41 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Houstonia: I met Stephen Stills and Graham Nash in an elevator once. Does that count? :-) Just wondering did you ever get your answer you were asking about 300 pages ago???? Taco :o) Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

3037. reedzone 03:41 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting galvestonhurricane: That was a pretty tacky comment... Well it's the truth unfortunately. I've runned into very snobby METS on here as well. They call people like MiamiHurricanes09, who is only 13 and very bright for his age, a wishcaster for just showing his opinion on a potential storm. Tampaspin has been attacked on here to, it's like if we differ on opinions, we are wishcasting noobs. This is a weather forum and we are free to express our opinions. I know I make some bad calls on some storms, but I am right with others. It's all in the matter of the pattern. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

3039. 1900hurricane 03:42 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: LOL yes it will most definitely. I think that's what Atmo has from Texas AMU... If I remember corrrectly :) Which is the same thing I'm going for right now! Thanks and Gig' Em. Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10363

3040. Houstonia 03:42 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting taco2me61: Just wondering did you ever get your answer you were asking about 300 pages ago???? Taco :o) Not that I can tell... oh well! :-) Member Since: 20 mai 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 71

3041. thelmores 03:42 GMT le 22 juin 2010
What about GulfScotsman, he come around anymore? Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

3042. atmoaggie 03:42 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting txtornado: i got a serious question. i see on some of the models, 200mb, 500mb, 850mb and i realize now that these are heights. is there a table available that will convert these for me? i just recently learned that these are heights. anyone? Well, there is a standard atmosphere height...but beware that there are no hard and fast rules about height vs. altitude. Go here, second table, mid way down the page. N/m2 divide by 100 = millibars. http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/standard-atmosphere-d_604.html Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

3043. jazzygal 03:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I'm in Northern Illinois in my basement with tornado sirens going off. Any reports of tornadoes in this area. Member Since: 2 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

3044. Levi32 03:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
So RyanFSU is actually Ryan Maue PhD? Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

3045. Skyepony (Mod) 03:43 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I've got to agree with MechEngMet.. We all lived through the same Calculus, Chemistry & Physics & that says alot. I'm amazed the difference of the technology from the mid 1990s..wow~ tracking birds on radar, just evolved beyond DOS compared to the tools & knowledge of today. What I've learned here & there since is a wealth more than had I took the last few classes & become a degreed Met. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29291

3046. louisianaboy444 03:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I'm a Met student...junior classification getting a degree in Atmospheric Science Member Since: 29 août 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

3048. Grothar 03:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Houstonia: I met Stephen Stills and Graham Nash in an elevator once. Does that count? :-) Only if Crosby and Young were with them. Did you talk to them? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19525

3049. taco2me61 03:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Houstonia: Not that I can tell... oh well! :-) ok here you go.... Any storm at a cat2 or above they close all rigs in the GOM thats in the path of a storm.... Taco :o) Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

3050. galvestonhurricane 03:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting reedzone: Well it's the truth unfortunately. I've runned into very snobby METS on here as well. They call people like MiamiHurricanes09, who is only 13 and very bright for his age, a wishcaster for just showing his opinion on a potential storm. Tampaspin has been attacked on here to, it's like if we differ on opinions, we are wishcasting noobs. This is a weather forum and we are free to express our opinions. I know I make some bad calls on some storms, but I am right with others. It's all in the matter of the pattern. I'm only 15... Thanks for clearing that up. Member Since: 18 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 176

3051. Levi32 03:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane: Which is the same thing I'm going for right now! Thanks and Gig' Em. I'm pretty sure Atmo Sciences doesn't involve nearly as much weather forecasting as an actual Meteorology degree...which is the thing that makes me sad that I'm getting stuck with it. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

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