Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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3051. Levi32 03:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane: Which is the same thing I'm going for right now! Thanks and Gig' Em. I'm pretty sure Atmo Sciences doesn't involve nearly as much weather forecasting as an actual Meteorology degree...which is the thing that makes me sad that I'm getting stuck with it. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

3052. Drakoen 03:44 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Levi32: So RyanFSU is actually Ryan Maue PhD? Yes Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3054. atmoaggie 03:45 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Yes it will most definitely. I think that's what Atmo has from Texas AMU... If I remember corrrectly :) That's what most of the schools have moved to...at least those that aren't interested in providing only a short degree plan mixed with journalism. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

3055. Levi32 03:45 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Yes Wow....what a treat and a compliment to have him on here. He's highly respected. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

3057. ElConando 03:46 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting louisianaboy444: I'm a Met student...junior classification getting a degree in Atmospheric Science Very nice, as long as you aren't a WEATHER STUDENT ;) Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

3059. Drakoen 03:46 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Levi32: Wow....what a treat and a compliment to have him on here. He's highly respected. I was thinking the same thing. I wish he would post here more often. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3060. Levi32 03:46 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Baltimorebirds: Get a scohlorship levie.Maybe some schools outside of alaska will except you. You'd be amazed how small a scholarship is now compared to the full tuition....it's pitiful. I tried already to get into Penn State this year and failed to get enough scholarships. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

3061. 1900hurricane 03:46 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Levi32: I'm pretty sure Atmo Sciences doesn't involve nearly as much weather prediction as an actual Meteorology degree...which is the thing that makes me sad that I'm getting stuck with it. Well here at A&M, it fulfills all of the criteria to obtain a job at the NWS, so I don't really see much of a difference. That just might be at my University though. Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10324

3062. atmoaggie 03:46 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Levi32: I'm pretty sure Atmo Sciences doesn't involve nearly as much weather prediction as an actual Meteorology degree...which is the thing that makes me sad that I'm getting stuck with it. If the label effectively describes the program, yeah, more theory, less application of it. Some of the application, well, you're here, right? Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

3063. louisianaboy444 03:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting ElConando: Very nice, as long as you aren't a WEATHER STUDENT ;) Haha good one Member Since: 29 août 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1218

3064. pottery 03:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Levi32: So RyanFSU is actually Ryan Maue PhD? I dont think so. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

3065. taco2me61 03:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting thelmores: I try to liven things up a bit, just don't tell me I am wrong! LOL Glad to see all the old timers, and a nice batch of newcomers as well. Lots of great memories in this blog......like this one! Seagulls Ahhhh..... the good ole days! LOL OMG I remember that too.... LMAO Taco :o) Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

3066. galvestonhurricane 03:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
For anyone interested... http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ CMC, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, etc. Member Since: 18 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175

3067. Levi32 03:47 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: I was thinking the same thing. I wish he would post here more often. I do too. Would be amazing to actually correspond with him. I'd like to know more about his ideas that this Atlantic hurricane season will be near-average. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

3068. atmoaggie 03:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Houstonia: Not that I can tell... oh well! :-) What question? Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

3069. Drakoen 03:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Levi32: I'm pretty sure Atmo Sciences doesn't involve nearly as much weather forecasting as an actual Meteorology degree...which is the thing that makes me sad that I'm getting stuck with it. That is true. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3070. Tazmanian 03:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
YAWN can we get back 93L Plz Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111320

3071. reedzone 03:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I want to be a MET, but I'm also trying to pursue a career in music. I write and compose music for the fun of it. I am very passionate in both subjects. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

3072. Skyepony (Mod) 03:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I'm so grateful to those like RyanFSU that are doing the research, spending their work day at it. Who's the one that makes us the cool red sat maps at LSU? Comes in once in a blue moon & says here's a link to the new toys I made you.. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29245

3073. atmoaggie 03:48 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting pottery: I dont think so. Oh, yes, it really is. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

3074. Patrap 03:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Mmm. Mmm. Memories, light the corners of my mind Misty watercolor memories of the way we were. Scattered pictures of the smiles we left behind smiles we give to one another for the way we were. Can it be that it was all so simple then or has time rewritten every line? If we had the chance to do it all again tell me would we? Could we? Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

3075. StormFreakyisher 03:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting WPBHurricane05: Oh my, thelmores is back making faces in the clouds. Flashbacks..... Wait...thelmores is not the one with that avatar last year of that black guy's face on a rainbow image of a storm system? Member Since: 16 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684

3077. 1900hurricane 03:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting taco2me61: OMG I remember that too.... LMAO Taco :o) Haha, as do I! I doesn't seem like that long ago either. I can't believe that I've been on the blogs for four years now! Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10324

3078. pottery 03:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Yes I did not know that. Impressed..... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

3079. Houstonia 03:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Grothar: Only if Crosby and Young were with them. Did you talk to them? Crosby and Young were NOT with them. They were making jokes about going out to look for girls (they were not as eloquent about it though). I wasn't sure if they were serious (they were pretty middle-aged, bald and beer-bellied) and I decided I did not want to pursue conversation with them! :-) Of course if Neil Young had been with them, I would have changed my mind! ;-) Member Since: 20 mai 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 71

3080. Levi32 03:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: If the label effectively describes the program, yeah, more theory, less application of it. Some of the application, well, you're here, right? Yeah but that doesn't mean I can get a job in the application of it.....plus I'm terrible with the "theory" part of it. Every time I'm asked to prove any theorem in Calculus I die a little inside. I don't know how many doors an Atmo Science degree opens up....but I can't imagine as many of them are for actual forecasting. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

3081. KoritheMan 03:49 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting jazzygal: I'm in Northern Illinois in my basement with tornado sirens going off. Any reports of tornadoes in this area. Go here. Member Since: 7 Mars 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418

3082. caneswatch 03:50 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting futuremet: I do not have a BS in meteorology, and I have no intention of becoming a meteorologist. I consider myself as a freelance meteorologist. Ditto. If I want to later on in life, I will probably go for meteorology. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

3083. galvestonhurricane 03:50 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: YAWN can we get back 93L Plz Thanks Tazmanian! Member Since: 18 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175

3084. futuremet 03:50 GMT le 22 juin 2010
00z GFS is coming out. Hopefully that will ease the met talk here. Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

3085. Patrap 03:50 GMT le 22 juin 2010
A thelmores original. Welcome back Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

3086. galvestonhurricane 03:51 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting galvestonhurricane: For anyone interested... http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ CMC, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, etc. Member Since: 18 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175

3088. 1900hurricane 03:51 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Skyepony: I'm so grateful to those like RyanFSU that are doing the research, spending their work day at it. Who's the one that makes us the cool red sat maps at LSU? Comes in once in a blue moon & says here's a link to the new toys I made you.. Hopefully, that will be me one day... XD Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10324

3089. Grothar 03:51 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Houstonia: Crosby and Nash were NOT with them. They were making jokes about going out to look for girls (they were not as eloquent about it though). I wasn't sure if they were serious (they were pretty middle-aged, bald and beer-bellied) and I decided I did not want to pursue conversation with them! :-) Smart move. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19499

3090. ElConando 03:51 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Levi32: You'd be amazed how small a scholarship is now compared to the full tuition....it's pitiful. I tried already to get into Penn State this year and failed to get enough scholarships. In this economy it would be wise to stay in state if you don't graduate in the top 5% of your class. Unfortunately for you (scholarship wise), you are home schooled and live in Alaska. I'm surprised there is no school which offers Met degrees up there considering the wild weather in the Peninsula in the Winter time. Guess there is enough coming from Canada and the lower 48. Very calm tonight. I only wish it stays that way. Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

3091. taco2me61 03:52 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane: Haha, as do I! I doesn't seem like that long ago either. I can't believe that I've been on the blogs for four years now! Hey its 5 years for me now.... I don't know what to say..... LMAO Taco :o) Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

3092. TampaSpin 03:52 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Can someone look at the Enterprise ROV 1 Live feed and tell me what the things are flying by.....it looks like balls of oil....but i don't know! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3094. thelmores 03:52 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Patrap: Mmm. Mmm. Memories, light the corners of my mind Misty watercolor memories of the way we were. Scattered pictures of the smiles we left behind smiles we give to one another for the way we were. Can it be that it was all so simple then or has time rewritten every line? If we had the chance to do it all again tell me would we? Could we? The way we were my friend...... the way we were! :) Now I am all growed up, married, with children! LOL Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

3096. RiverSteve 03:53 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting jazzygal: I'm in Northern Illinois in my basement with tornado sirens going off. Any reports of tornadoes in this area. Tornado warning East of Rockford. Cell moving east. Tune to the TWC...Never mind their showing Napoleon Dynamite. Member Since: 14 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 54

3098. galvestonhurricane 03:53 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting galvestonhurricane: For anyone interested... http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ CMC, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, etc. Thanks! Member Since: 18 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175

3099. TampaSpin 03:53 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Just to let everyone KNow, but JFV is getting his degree at FMU! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3100. Houstonia 03:53 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting taco2me61: ok here you go.... Any storm at a cat2 or above they close all rigs in the GOM thats in the path of a storm.... Taco :o) Thanks taco - I'm just concerned that BP might close early. I see all your pictures from Dauphin Island - I have tons of my own that I've taken over the years. I'm worried about a storm - not even a hurricane - just a storm - putting the final knife on our beautiful Louisiana and Alabama shores (and MS and FL too of course...) Member Since: 20 mai 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 71

3101. txtornado 03:54 GMT le 22 juin 2010
atmo 3042 thanks, but i can no more read that than my great dane can. just figured that when a model says 850mb which seems to be popular, it would colate with a certain altitude. thanks anyway, (scratches head, continues lurking)

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