Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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3401. xcool 06:04 GMT le 22 juin 2010
btwntx08 00Z NGP TX ? Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3402. xcool 06:05 GMT le 22 juin 2010
HWF feedback issues Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3403. SouthALWX 06:05 GMT le 22 juin 2010
CMC .... oh poor CMC .... some things never change Member Since: 27 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

3404. weatherwatcher12 06:05 GMT le 22 juin 2010
According to this only about 15 knots: Member Since: 16 mai 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

3405. Levi32 06:05 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Levi i just zoomed in and i gotta disagree with you....it is getting hit by around 20kts of sheer..... Yeah you're talking about this: The TUTT flow is still going by to the north....but the system is not getting sheared. I see no clouds or thunderstorms getting blown away to the east of 93L's center. They are nearly perfectly still, as a matter of fact. The strong upper winds to the west which look like they are slamming into 93L are in fact going around it to the north...which is shown on CIMSS imagery. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

3407. xcool 06:07 GMT le 22 juin 2010
ROB Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3408. TampaSpin 06:07 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I'm done for the nite......good nite all! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3409. Fl30258713 06:08 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting xcool: OMY That's special. Member Since: 24 juillet 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

3410. reedzone 06:09 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Levi32: Yeah you're talking about this: The TUTT flow is still going by to the north....but the system is not getting sheared. I see no clouds or thunderstorms getting blown away to the east of 93L's center. They are nearly perfectly still, as a matter of fact. The strong upper winds to the west which look like they are slamming into 93L are in fact going around it to the north...which is shown on CIMSS imagery. They said wind shear was supposed to weaken to the west, but looking at the last few frames, it looks like shear has increased. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

3412. xcool 06:10 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I SEE NOO WIND SHEAR Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3413. lparky 06:10 GMT le 22 juin 2010
This guy is good... he is a local houston met that won the emmy for his ike coverage. Here is his outlook on the current invests: Link Member Since: 5 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

3414. xcool 06:11 GMT le 22 juin 2010
YEP ROB Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3416. weatherwatcher12 06:12 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting reedzone: They said wind shear was supposed to weaken to the west, but looking at the last few frames, it looks like shear has increased. That shear is in the process of decreasing: Member Since: 16 mai 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

3417. reedzone 06:13 GMT le 22 juin 2010
There is 5-10 knots over 93L, and should stay that way for the next few days to allow further development. What I am saying is that what was 20 knots of shear near the Yucatan is now 20-30 knots. Wasn't it supposed to weaken, not strengthen? Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

3418. JVGazeley 06:14 GMT le 22 juin 2010
btwntx08: If I'm reading it correctly, it goes over the Yucatan, swallows up the wave behind it in the Gulf then hits TX somewhere around Corpus Christi? Link Member Since: 10 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

3419. reedzone 06:14 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting weatherwatcher12: That shear is in the process of decreasing: Ohh, ok thanks Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

3420. xcool 06:16 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3422. EricSFL 06:17 GMT le 22 juin 2010
It is an opinion, but I'm not buying the model tracks that take the system to the western Gulf. June climatology would not favor such westward track. Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 756

3423. xcool 06:18 GMT le 22 juin 2010
93L ROLL NOW. MEANING GOOD convection Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3424. weathersp 06:18 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Or instead of argueing about the shear on maps... you can look at REAL Observations.. May I present to you... the Curacao RAOB! And the 850-250mb vertical shear is... 15 kts! Member Since: 14 janvier 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112

3425. leo305 06:19 GMT le 22 juin 2010
its ganna go boom, little dot of very cold cloud top has popped up east of the "center" Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

3428. xcool 06:20 GMT le 22 juin 2010
MRS ROB LOOK AT Tropical Atlantic - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3429. lparky 06:20 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Concur! I never forecast/downcast/upcast/eastcast/westcast 'cause I am a lurker with no met education but I gotta weird feeling about Corpus this year. That is based on no scientific knowledge that I possess but they are due. BTW, Viva le Spurs! Member Since: 5 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

3431. xcool 06:23 GMT le 22 juin 2010
06z BEST TRACK: AL, 93, 2010062206, , BEST, 0, 150N, 712W, 25, 1010, WV, 34, NEQ Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3433. WatchingThisOne 06:23 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting reedzone: They said wind shear was supposed to weaken to the west, but looking at the last few frames, it looks like shear has increased. Look at post 3404. The very northern and southern edges of the storm may be seeing 20, but the rest of the storm is in 15 headed for 10 to the west. Member Since: 15 juillet 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

3434. EricSFL 06:24 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Well right now I'm "eastcasting". Because I see no way for this to end up in TX, UNLESS it does not develop and gets steered by low level flow. Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 756

3435. xcool 06:24 GMT le 22 juin 2010
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0617 UTC TUE JUN 22 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100622 0600 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600 100623 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 15.0N 71.2W 15.8N 73.5W 16.4N 75.8W 17.2N 78.2W BAMD 15.0N 71.2W 15.7N 73.2W 16.3N 75.1W 16.8N 76.9W BAMM 15.0N 71.2W 15.7N 73.4W 16.3N 75.5W 17.0N 77.7W LBAR 15.0N 71.2W 15.9N 73.4W 16.9N 75.7W 17.8N 78.0W SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100624 0600 100625 0600 100626 0600 100627 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 17.7N 80.4W 18.6N 84.2W 19.2N 87.3W 20.0N 89.9W BAMD 17.1N 78.5W 17.5N 81.7W 18.0N 84.8W 18.3N 87.8W BAMM 17.4N 79.6W 18.0N 83.0W 18.6N 85.9W 19.3N 88.8W LBAR 18.6N 80.2W 20.1N 84.2W 22.1N 87.2W 24.0N 88.8W SHIP 52KTS 68KTS 82KTS 93KTS DSHP 52KTS 68KTS 82KTS 48KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 71.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 68.8W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 12KT LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 66.5W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3436. JVGazeley 06:25 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Realistically, we're too far out to make a guess about landfalls at the moment. The models show no correlation, and we don't even have a TD yet; there may yet end up being no system to make landfall. The models are intriguing to look at though. Member Since: 10 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

3437. xcool 06:26 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3439. lparky 06:28 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting JVGazeley: Realistically, we're too far out to make a guess about landfalls at the moment. The models show no correlation, and we don't even have a TD yet; there may yet end up being no system to make landfall. The models are intriguing to look at though. The nice thing about this site is I will two+ days ahead of everyone else due to the collective knowledge of this blog... LOVE IT! Member Since: 5 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

3440. xcool 06:28 GMT le 22 juin 2010
btwntx08 ? Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3441. EricSFL 06:30 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting btwntx08: wt why did it do that lol Probably because it made landfall by then? Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 756

3443. lparky 06:31 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting JVGazeley: btwntx08: If I'm reading it correctly, it goes over the Yucatan, swallows up the wave behind it in the Gulf then hits TX somewhere around Corpus Christi? Link and now we are considered "wishcasters" because we called Corpus! Oh, well Member Since: 5 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

3444. xcool 06:31 GMT le 22 juin 2010
SHIP 25K AT 00HR 06z BEST TRACK: AL, 93, 2010062206, , BEST, 0, 150N, 712W, 25, 1010, WV, 34, NEQ Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3445. weatherwatcher12 06:32 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Have I identified the TUTT correctly in this diagram?: Image from CIMSS. Member Since: 16 mai 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

3447. JVGazeley 06:32 GMT le 22 juin 2010
120hrs is roughly where NOGAPS has it over Yucatan. The difference between models with regards to kts is prob based on if they think it'll go through the strait, or if it'll be over Yucatan or West Cuba at that point. Member Since: 10 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

3448. xcool 06:34 GMT le 22 juin 2010
btwntx08 YEP Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3450. EricSFL 06:36 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Well good night xcool, btw, and others! Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 756

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