New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Bonaire now reporting WNW winds and falling pressure.

Surface low organizing
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Quoting Drakoen:
Curacao is reporting NE and Bonaire is reporting winds out of the WNW (wind shift). A closed low is trying to form.


pressure is falling
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Thanks Pat for the audio of Dr. Masters. The unknown of toxic dispersants really bothers me!
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Quoting saintsfan06:
This is all The Weather Channel has to say about 93L as of 11:53AM. This seems a little lame to me.

ATLANTIC

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the open waters as well as nearby land areas, including northern South America and the Lesser Antilles. This system should produce some locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles regardless of whether or not it develops into a tropical cyclone.


Don't watch the TWC if any of us do its just for comic purposes
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Quoting GBguy88:


Opal was a dud...still packed a decent surge, but the winds really dropped off before landfall. One of only 3 eyes I've had the experience of witnessing.


A dud? It killed 59 people, more than Andrew and Charley combined and caused 6 billion in damage.

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Quoting reedzone:
BTW, also expect the NHC chances to go up, possibly to an orange code.


Thats a no-brainer for sure.
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Quoting GBguy88:


Opal was a dud...still packed a decent surge, but the winds really dropped off before landfall. One of only 3 eyes I've had the experience of witnessing.


she was a pretty devastating dud! my gosh she wiped out the coast from pensacola to appalachicola. Entire streets and neighborhoods were washed away.
Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
Quoting Patrap:
Opal 95 shows how fast we can get a Bad one...close to Home.





She was my second Hurricane after moving to the Florida Panhandle in 1992. Erin came through in August as a Cat 1 but Opal in October amazed me with how fast it could develop and move towards the coast when a front picked her up and brought her to town!
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Quoting StormW:
If you go here, zoom and animate, you can see it wrapping up.

NASA


Can't do it, have to have a special edition of java.
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Quoting Patrap:
Donna near the Keys, Radar Image 1960

We can still see tree damage from Donna on U.S.41. Powerful storm.
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BTW, also expect the NHC chances to go up, possibly to an orange code.
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We might get a TD quicker than we think.
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Quoting Patrap:
#306

Opal..95.

She almost caught many on I-10 Evacuating..but thankfully weakened rapidly before landfall.


Opal was a dud...still packed a decent surge, but the winds really dropped off before landfall. One of only 3 eyes I've had the experience of witnessing.
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Whats different about 93L is that conditions are FAVORABLE!! I expect a TD in a few days, IF shear is low in the GOM, and this makes it in there, EXPECT rapid development into a Hurricane like the EURO is showing.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Curacao is reporting NE and Bonaire is reporting winds out of the WNW (wind shift). A closed low is trying to form.


We will likely see TD 1 by tonight and TS alex by tomorrow, if not TD 1 by morning
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Quoting RecordSeason:
344:

I promise I'm not JFV.

I am a completely different jackass.


Uh oh lol
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This is all The Weather Channel has to say about 93L as of 11:53AM. This seems a little lame to me.

ATLANTIC

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the open waters as well as nearby land areas, including northern South America and the Lesser Antilles. This system should produce some locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles regardless of whether or not it develops into a tropical cyclone.
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358. MahFL
More banding on N side, none yet seen on S side.
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Curacao is reporting NE and Bonaire is reporting winds out of the WNW (wind shift). A closed low is trying to form.
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Quoting Hurricanes101: "dissipate the oil? by doing what bringing it inland? Yea ok cuz that is better *rolls eyes*"

I can't help but think BP has been praying for a hurricane to clear the oil. If the oil and water turn into foam and get sprayed around, ti's a mess but a thin coating over large places is impossible to clean up: i.e. no cost.
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Quoting extreme236:


They will probably say it's showing some signs of organization. Probably orange alert (30%...maybe 40%)


Agreed.
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93L looks to have a very good chance of becoming the first storm of 2010.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The only consecutive Cat 5 storm (even though I've never believed it should count as a Cat 5 storm):



Even though Erin developed while Dean was active, it also dissipated while Dean was active. Felix was the next storm to form after Dean.. and they become consecutive Category 5s.
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352. xcool
troll OMG HERE WE GO
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


GOOD JOB! Do i make the winnings out to Record Season or do you go by another name my friend wink wink :)


ah ok, good one lol
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350. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


They will probably say it's showing some signs of organization. Probably orange alert (30%...maybe 40%)


I agree.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
The algorithm in this six image Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement (Dvorak) tracks almost due west as it attempts to pick the center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmsrbdc_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL932010&am p;st arting_image=2010AL93_4KMSRBDC_201006211315.jpg


Roger Dat 13,..go ahead and give yer Cryo tanks a stir when ya can,,

Copy?
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Quoting GreenMe2225:
right now everything about 93L points to it being a monster storm as it is already throwing off the formation nucleus in favor beginning an outflow and inflow. we are already seeing the beginning of a curculation and the formation of an llc. no shear to speak of, super hot watter all the way to whereever it is going. MONSTER, baby!


Wow...so you don't see the slightest possibility of something interfering with this feature developing? How about track? I imagine you can tell us exactly where it's going? A CAT7 super-hypercane in Tampa at 144 hours?
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346. IKE
High continues developing over 93L....

Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
I think the NHC ups the pct. on the next TWO. Continued improvement in appearance on 93L.


They will probably say it's showing some signs of organization. Probably orange alert (30%...maybe 40%)
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Last Island Hurricane?


GOOD JOB! Do i make the winnings out to Record Season or do you go by another name my friend wink wink :)
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Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The StormTop weather center should be opening up soon..............


That troll that keeps fighting back????
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The algorithm in this six image Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement (Dvorak) tracks almost due west as it attempts to pick the center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmsrbdc_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL932010&st arting_image=2010AL93_4KMSRBDC_201006211315.jpg
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338. xcool
game on 93L
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Naw, Surprise Hurricane made landfall near Houston. I have no idea what that is, but it looks like an unnamed storm from the 1800s.


Helpful hint: A book was written about it...
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Quoting GreenMe2225:
right now everything about 93L points to it being a monster storm as it is already throwing off the formation nucleus in favor beginning an outflow and inflow. we are already seeing the beginning of a curculation and the formation of an llc. no shear to speak of, super hot watter all the way to whereever it is going. MONSTER, baby!


yep perfect conditions, heck we could see TD 1 by tonight!
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332. IKE
I think the NHC ups the pct. on the next TWO. Continued improvement in appearance on 93L.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The StormTop weather center should be opening up soon..............


Yes, but what about Debby? Remember, she is supposed to really impress us all with her knowledge.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


suprise hurricane of 1943?

Naw, Surprise Hurricane made landfall near Houston. I have no idea what that is, but it looks like an unnamed storm from the 1800s.
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The Pelicans arent to thrilled about it.

Neither are the Terns,Egrets,Shrimp,crabs,eyrster's,,etc,yada,yada,yada
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Goodnight all,,, stay safe
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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