Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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3701. mojofearless 12:15 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: True. Looking at 850 millibar vorticity there looks to be two strong areas of vorticity, Fujiwhara? But they seem to be combining. (Yes I'm back, but won't post as much as before, didn't mean to cause a fuss on the blog last night). Hey 09, I've been lurking here for three years now, and I dont usually say too much, if anything. But I felt compelled to tell you not to worry too much about people getting snippy with you on this forum. Clearly you have an interest, talent and drive when it comes to meteorology, and I think you should stick with it, study your sciences hard and never give up on your goals. My son began pursuing his career as a lihting designer at 13, and at 15, he's already light years beyond most adults in his chosen field, and has worked with a number of famous musicians. He has job offers right and left, and I know I don't have to worry about him making his way in this world doing what makes him happier than anything else. And you should pursue your goals just as relentlessly. So don't give up, and don't let people hurt your feelings. Just keep moving forward, and good luck. Member Since: 13 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 170

3702. SAINTHURRIFAN 12:17 GMT le 22 juin 2010
if i can get someone to awnser lol seems my post are not visible? if the conditions are going to be so favorable in the gulf why do al the models other than the crazy cmc, maintain a weak or weakenig system in the gulf? also i asked this once before with the favorable conditions we have now and nothing imenent to develop is there something else going on we are missing ike you mentioned this yesterday. also ike you have been spot on so far this year with your observations and you like me do not claim to be a pro lol Member Since: 20 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 668

3703. alaina1085 12:17 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: Like a fat kid loves cake!LOL Mmmm cake!!!! Thanks for the map Ben!! Looks like im not in the drought. Im just under the yellow in Ascension parish. Could have fooled me tho... its so freakin hott. Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234

3704. IKE 12:17 GMT le 22 juin 2010
93L is in a bad spot for Hispaniola....for rain. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

3706. twhcracker 12:18 GMT le 22 juin 2010
is it red yet or still orange? Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

3707. Tazmanian 12:18 GMT le 22 juin 2010
93L looks a little better Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111322

3709. IKE 12:19 GMT le 22 juin 2010
6Z HWRF Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

3710. alaina1085 12:19 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting twhcracker: is it red yet or still orange? Orange, down to 40% Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234

3713. PanhandleChuck 12:21 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Now I understand the CMC on crack statement. LOL Two storms in the N. GOM? Member Since: 13 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

3714. alaina1085 12:22 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: No big rain in sight either unless 93L pays you a visit but if it does most of LA will be on the weaker western side. Yea and that wouldnt end up amounting to much... maybe a 2mph gust of wind ;p Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234

3716. twhcracker 12:22 GMT le 22 juin 2010
ok ok, i say... RED by 2:00 PM central. Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

3718. kmanislander 12:22 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting pottery: Interesting comments on 93L Kman and Storm...I wondered last night when I looked at the IR Loops, and said that the north and east sides of the system looked to be blowing away. Looked like shear. I was corrected and told this was actually venting and was beneficial to the system. What is/was the effect of what was happening there?? Hi there, Sorry I didn't reply but the internet on the computer I was on went out so I am on a different one now that is hard wired. Sometimes the wrieless coverage in the house goes bonkers. I saw the explanation from Storm and mine is less technical. In simple terms, I think the problems plaguing 93L have more to do with climatology than anything else. It is in an area , and has been for the last 24 hours, that just does not allow TDs to develop save in the most exceptional circumstances. The behaviour of 93L is therefore in keeping with what one would expect to see, not the other way around. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3719. alaina1085 12:23 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting StormW: She doesn't look fat! LOL, im not, its just a figure of speech! I can eat like I am! Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234

3720. IKE 12:23 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Here's a 144 hour shear loop from the GFS, but it's based off of where 93L goes...Link Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

3721. pottery 12:23 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: I've noticed the COC or what appears to be one trying to form keeps reforming N. Also appears to be strong Low Level shear out of the SE which is why we never had a SW Caribbean storm so far. This is what I am questioning. Can the shear-maps be wrong?? When I look at the loops, I see something that makes me think that the system is being stressed from winds. Having said that (and accepting that I am lacking in experience here), I find it strange that the area all over the East Carib and extending into the Atl east of Trinidad has lost so much moisture overnight. Supposed to build during DMax.........not shrink?? Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20704

3722. DaytonaBeachWatcher 12:23 GMT le 22 juin 2010
To me, very easy to see the COC this morning. It is partially exposed at about 16.6 72.6 ish Member Since: 29 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125

3724. PolishHurrMaster 12:24 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Link The way of 93L??? Member Since: 19 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 344

3725. IKE 12:25 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: would have been nice for that one to dump the central GOM idea along with some of the others. Most all models put 93L in the GOM...from the BOC to the northern gulf coast. May just be a rain event. Stay tuned! $$$ Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

3726. alaina1085 12:25 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting StormW: I kinda figured that! Just paying a compliment. You and me both...ya got ta keep da cake away from me. Thanks. Yea I just enjoy everything right now because I know in the future the metabolism will slow eventually. (Pokes 93L, Get moving!) Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234

3728. DaytonaBeachWatcher 12:26 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Ike, In my opinion there is just about no way the gulf coast is gonna slide by without a hurricane this year. And having said that it might be better to get it overwith early when sst's arent as high as they will be later on in the summer.... just sayin! Member Since: 29 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125

3729. kmanislander 12:27 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN: if i can get someone to awnser lol seems my post are not visible? if the conditions are going to be so favorable in the gulf why do al the models other than the crazy cmc, maintain a weak or weakenig system in the gulf? also i asked this once before with the favorable conditions we have now and nothing imenent to develop is there something else going on we are missing ike you mentioned this yesterday. also ike you have been spot on so far this year with your observations and you like me do not claim to be a pro lol 1. Models are notoriously unreliable with a weak system before it is classified as a TD. The models are probably all wrong about what will ultimately happen. 2. As to why 93L is the way it is, see my post 3718. Hope this helps. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3730. stormpetrol 12:28 GMT le 22 juin 2010
take a good look at 93L on the visible sat loop, I think it actually looks more organized than some are giving it credit for, it actually has more of a spin with it this morning and seems to be in the process of establishing a well defined LLC, just my opinion of course. Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

3731. PanhandleChuck 12:28 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher: Ike, In my opinion there is just about no way the gulf coast is gonna slide by without a hurricane this year. And having said that it might be better to get it overwith early when sst's arent as high as they will be later on in the summer.... just sayin! I'd rather not have one at all, Besides the SST's in the GOM are already smokin Member Since: 13 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

3732. pottery 12:28 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Hi there, Sorry I didn't reply but the internet on the computer I was on went out so I am on a different one now that is hard wired. Sometimes the wrieless coverage in the house goes bonkers. I saw the explanation from Storm and mine is less technical. In simple terms, I think the problems plaguing 93L have more to do with climatology than anything else. It is in an area , and has been for the last 24 hours, that just does not allow TDs to develop save in the most exceptional circumstances. The behaviour of 93L is therefore in keeping with what one would expect to see, not the other way around. Thanks. Clearly put. I am still trying to understand WHY this is so. There has to be a physical reason for it's behaviour, given the way it looked and was forecasted to behave. 50% is touch-and-go I know. But the mechanics is intriguing me! Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20704

3733. DaytonaBeachWatcher 12:29 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting PanhandleChuck: I'd rather not have one at all, Besides the SST's in the GOM are already smokin Yeah, I know I know, me either. But we both know that what we want and what we are gonna get usually dont jive. Member Since: 29 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125

3734. Drakoen 12:30 GMT le 22 juin 2010
I see the GFDL, HWRF, CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF all develop 93L to some extent. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3736. Dakster 12:31 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Some twice-barreled CMC love for the northern Gulf coast: Click to enlarge I see the CMC is living up to its namesake of Constantly Making Cyclones... Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4923

3737. CybrTeddy 12:31 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: I see the GFDL, HWRF, CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF all develop 93L to some extent. Basically, 93L has great model support for the long range. We'll most likely see something. This is in the Central Caribbean, storms never develop there.. only in the Eastern or the Western.. remember the John Hope rule. Its likely that 93L might have genesis by Friday or Thursday night imo. People need to be patient with this system. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20201

3738. Chicklit 12:32 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Good morning, is anyone else getting a server error when trying to access 93L on the Navy site? Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10247

3740. CaneWarning 12:32 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Drakoen: I see the GFDL, HWRF, CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF all develop 93L to some extent. I don't like the latest model run of GFDL. It would go right over the oil. Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

3741. Walshy 12:33 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting stormpetrol: take a good look at 93L on the visible sat loop, I think it actually looks more organized than some are giving it credit for, it actually has more of a spin with it this morning and seems to be in the process of establishing a well defined LLC, just my opinion of course. I guess if it relocated further north then it will get that spin it needed... Member Since: 17 mai 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 618

3742. PanhandleChuck 12:33 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher: Yeah, I know I know, me either. But we both know that what we want and what we are gonna get usually dont jive. All we can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best this year. The only thing is, how do you prepare for the possibility of millions of gallons of oil being washed ashore and inland? I think Pat is right when he talks about Oilzilla. Member Since: 13 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

3743. IKE 12:33 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Good morning, is anyone else getting a server error when trying to access 93L on the Navy site? Mine works...Link EDIT...oops...you're correct. I get the same. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

3746. SAINTHURRIFAN 12:34 GMT le 22 juin 2010
kaman thanks for the reply. im beginning to thank storm w and ike have me on block dont want to reply lol. Member Since: 20 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 668

3747. Capeskies 12:35 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting IKE: Mine works...Link Member Since: 24 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 27

3748. kmanislander 12:35 GMT le 22 juin 2010
Quoting pottery: Thanks. Clearly put. I am still trying to understand WHY this is so. There has to be a physical reason for it's behaviour, given the way it looked and was forecasted to behave. 50% is touch-and-go I know. But the mechanics is intriguing me! One reason is that the winds tend to be very fast along the North coast of SA and this tends to undercut the formation of a West wind on the South side of a developing low. Ever been to Aruba ?. A calm day is 25 mph winds. I tried to play golf there once and the salt spray was so storng I had to clean my glasses every 10 minutes. Trees grow 6 feet tall and ten feet to the side. yesterday mornign winds were very light in the ABC islands but that is the exception rather than the rule. These fast winds then tend to slow dramatically just off the coast of Nicaragua leading to big thunderstorm blow ups due to speed convergence. Lastly, the Eastern Caribbean has less " sea room " than the Western Caribbean where the basin widens significantly with the area North of Panama. Thus, dry air entrainment from the SA continent can also play havoc with a weak system. I am sure there are other elements I have not mentioned but put together they tend to discourage development there. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3751. aquak9 12:35 GMT le 22 juin 2010
could someone give me a brief synopsis of the John Hope Rule? Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25005

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