Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:50 GMT le 21 juin 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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402. Hurricanes101 16:34 GMT le 21 juin 2010
I highly doubt we will see a TD tonight; I think that is getting a bit ahead of ourselves Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

403. biloxidaisy 16:35 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting jasoniscoolman09: ARE YOU NUTS NO WAY YOU GET A CAT 7...ONLY GO UP TO CAT 5 SILLY. errr, it's called sarcasm..lol Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 243

405. Walshy 16:35 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting reedzone: I honestly don't understand why Dr. Masters is going really conservative with this one when wind shear ahead of this invest is 5-10 knots.. He called it a major concern. I respect his decision to not show us the model run of it being a cat2. Member Since: 17 mai 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 618

406. weathermanwannabe 16:35 GMT le 21 juin 2010
An early season storm (potential damage issues notwithstanding) is probably a good thing to get folks to heed what may be a pretty intense year and have them make suitable preparations for the season. Problem is, I would have preferred an early tropical storm over an early hurricane.....Oh Well......Let's see what happens with this disturbance. Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6702

407. Stormchaser2007 16:35 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Starting to see signs of a surface low. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

408. Hurricanes101 16:36 GMT le 21 juin 2010
I still say they keep it at a yellow circle, but that is just me Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

409. GBguy88 16:36 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting twhcracker: she was a pretty devastating dud! my gosh she wiped out the coast from pensacola to appalachicola. Entire streets and neighborhoods were washed away. Right, the damage mainly occurred as a result of the surge, but the winds were not nearly as devastating as they could have been. Minimal cat 3 is a far cry from the strong cat 4 that people had expected. The rapid weakening of the winds was nice, but didn't afford the surge any time to slack off. Sorry, I didn't mean to offend anyone, I should change the wording...Opal wasn't a dud, she was just a good deal weaker at landfall than people expected. I'm clumsy with my words sometimes. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

410. wunderkidcayman 16:36 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5449

411. Drakoen 16:37 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

413. kmanislander 16:37 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Levi32: Keep in mind that the two other stations on the island are reporting SSE winds. If there is any westerly wind trying to start it is not very defined yet. We'll have to keep watching it. True, but as far as I am aware this is the first time we have seen the wind shift to the WNW. Wind speed is very light which is typical for a developing low in the neighbourhood. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

414. tropicfreak 16:37 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: I highly doubt we will see a TD tonight; I think that is getting a bit ahead of ourselves Well we do have a surface low developing, low shear, hot steamy waters, it is rapidly intensifying. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

415. Levi32 16:37 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: I still say they keep it at a yellow circle, but that is just me I agree....don't think they'll be jumping all over this one right off the bat. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25458

418. kmanislander 16:38 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Lots of T & L here now so will sign off until later. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

419. FLWeatherFreak91 16:38 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting BenBIogger: 93L Seem more like a convergence line to me. Seemed like that to me when I first looked this morning, but then... when you check out the convergence maps, there is hardly any at all, and it definitely doesn't correspond with the strongest convection. Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

420. Stormchaser2007 16:38 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: I still say they keep it at a yellow circle, but that is just me I agree. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

421. aspectre 16:38 GMT le 21 juin 2010
254 TexasGulf "If this storm becomes Hurricane Alex and moves anywhere near the northern Gulf[...]BP lawyers will have a good legal argument. ' How much of the coastal and marsh damage was from wind vs. water vs. oil? How much liability do we have to restore an environment that was damaged partially by oil, but mostly from hurricane wind and storm surge? ' " One would have a VERY difficult time finding some proof that hurricanes, even major with HUGE tidal surges, causes damage to coast wetlands when considered as a whole ecological system. For that ya need humans, or a major ExtinctionEvent... not that there's a noticeable difference. Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

422. RyanFSU 16:39 GMT le 21 juin 2010
The ECMWF model in the extended range is still suggesting a major hurricane for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle...3 consecutive forecasts have had something in the Gulf, but uncertainty about what. Member Since: 13 février 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308

423. Drakoen 16:39 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting kmanislander: True, but as far as I am aware this is the first time we have seen the wind shift to the WNW. Wind speed is very light which is typical for a developing low in the neighbourhood. Exactly Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

424. Hurricanes101 16:39 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting tropicfreak: Well we do have a surface low developing, low shear, hot steamy waters, it is rapidly intensifying. Dont misuse the words rapidly intensifying It is steadily organizing is more like it and keep in mind the TWO is looking at development from 2pm today to 2pm on Wednesday and I just don't see the chances that high that we will see a classified system before recon shows up there Wednesday afternoon Now by tonights TWO or the 2am TWO tomorrow morning, I can see the chances being bumped up, but not just yet. Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

425. BenBIogger 16:39 GMT le 21 juin 2010
8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN Member Since: 19 Mars 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

426. louisianaboy444 16:40 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting jasoniscoolman09: i saw a water temp in the GOM around 95F.WOW. Nope thats just my hot tub Member Since: 29 août 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

427. scott39 16:40 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Patrap: Were entering a period of Unknowns big Time scott Were all gonna have to be on our toes now as the world will be watching here. We can roll Info or go berserk. Im gonna choose to roll Info. Going beserk is definitely not the answer, Weve never been thru this before, hopefully its one of thoses things to where its not as bad as your imagination created. Time will tell. Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

428. Patrap 16:40 GMT le 21 juin 2010
93L now active on the NOAA RAAMB Page AL932010 - INVEST Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111580

429. IKE 16:40 GMT le 21 juin 2010
12Z GFS @ 228 hours.... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

430. tropicfreak 16:40 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Levi32: I agree....don't think they'll be jumping all over this one right off the bat. Yeah but i think they will change it to orange, if not, probably the border line yellow/orange(30%) Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

431. Drakoen 16:41 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting RyanFSU: The ECMWF model in the extended range is still suggesting a major hurricane for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle...3 consecutive forecasts have had something in the Gulf, but uncertainty about what. Wait. Are you Ryan N. Maue PhD Meteorology? Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

432. Levi32 16:41 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting kmanislander: True, but as far as I am aware this is the first time we have seen the wind shift to the WNW. Wind speed is very light which is typical for a developing low in the neighbourhood. That is true too. The stations reporting SSE winds are only at 1mph and 2mph. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25458

433. neonlazer 16:41 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting RyanFSU: The ECMWF model in the extended range is still suggesting a major hurricane for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle...3 consecutive forecasts have had something in the Gulf, but uncertainty about what. This is one i TRUELY hope is wrong... Member Since: 5 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 247

434. CaneWarning 16:42 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Lots of T & L here now so will sign off until later. What is T & L? Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

435. gator23 16:42 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting louisianaweatherguy: wow where the heck did 93L come from?!?!?! ugghhhhh!!! I gotta Gustav gut feeling about this one... we're really counting on shear in the gulf to rip this one apart... u got a Gustav feeling? What does that even mean? Member Since: 26 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

436. 1900hurricane 16:42 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

437. Hurricanes101 16:42 GMT le 21 juin 2010
CaneWarning Thunder and Lightning or in the south Tuna and Lobster lol Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

438. Grothar 16:42 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: "93L reminds me of Charikestavkatritawilvan. Not a good feeling." LOL. You wrote that like a court reporter. 7 in one, not bad. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

439. Levi32 16:42 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Scatt shows strong wind speed convergence as the strong trade winds coming across the Antilles slow down considerably in the vicinity of 93L. This forces air to pile up and rise, aiding in thunderstorm development. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25458

440. tropicfreak 16:42 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: Dont misuse the words rapidly intensifying It is steadily organizing is more like it and keep in mind the TWO is looking at development from 2pm today to 2pm on Wednesday and I just don't see the chances that high that we will see a classified system before recon shows up there Wednesday afternoon Now by tonights TWO or the 2am TWO tomorrow morning, I can see the chances being bumped up, but not just yet. You are being a little conservative, but i understand your point of view. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

441. CaneWarning 16:43 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting RyanFSU: The ECMWF model in the extended range is still suggesting a major hurricane for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle...3 consecutive forecasts have had something in the Gulf, but uncertainty about what. Not good if that verifies. Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

442. Hurricanes101 16:44 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting tropicfreak: You are being a little conservative, but i understand your point of view. How Am I being conservative? I think we could very likely see a TD by the time recon goes out Wednesday, but for right now with 93L trying to organize; NHC may not upgrade from yellow Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

443. photonchaser 16:44 GMT le 21 juin 2010
T and L (thunder and lightning?) Member Since: 3 juin 2004 Posts: 1 Comments: 134

444. coffeecrusader 16:44 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Once a surface low develops (IMHO by tomorrow), this thing could blow up fast. Remember Wilma, similar atmospheric conditions to this invest. Member Since: 21 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 254

445. reedzone 16:45 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: I highly doubt we will see a TD tonight; I think that is getting a bit ahead of ourselves No no you must of misunderstood what I was saying.. I said they might bump chances up on the TWO later this afternoon, POSSIBLY but not likely at orange code. More like 30% r something like that. I also said that a TD will likely form in a few days, not tonight. Trust me, I'm not going over myself here lol. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

446. CaneWarning 16:45 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: CaneWarning Thunder and Lightning or in the south Tuna and Lobster lol Thanks, I never would've gotten that one. Member Since: 26 avril 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

447. tropicfreak 16:45 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: How Am I being conservative? I think we could very likely see a TD by the time recon goes out Wednesday, but for right now with 93L trying to organize; NHC may not upgrade from yellow I said i understood ur point of view, i don't want to become involved in big arguements so i I'm trying to handle this disagreement as calmly as I can. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

448. swampdawg 16:46 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting CaneWarning: What is T & L? Member Since: 1 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 70

449. hydrus 16:46 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting Levi32: Scatt shows strong wind speed convergence as the strong trade winds coming across the Antilles slow down considerably in the vicinity of 93L. This forces air to pile up and rise, aiding in thunderstorm development. I can see that on the visible satellite loop. Looks like someone up front hit the brakes. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14306

450. IKE 16:46 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Little spinner in the NE GOM.... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

451. Floodman 16:46 GMT le 21 juin 2010
Quoting jasoniscoolman09: ARE YOU NUTS NO WAY YOU GET A CAT 7...ONLY GO UP TO CAT 5 SILLY. Wow...you really need to unclench a little...life is too short Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

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