Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana
Tropical Depression Alex has held together fairly well during its passage over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and stands poised to re-intensify back into a tropical storm once it emerges from the coast tonight. Alex brought heavy rains to northern Honduras, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize over the weekend. It was not a good beach day in Cozumel yesterday, as 9.25" of rain fell. Cancun received 2.05" over the weekend, and Belize City received 4.57". Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms are mostly gone near the center, though there are some impressive bands of precipitation well away from the center. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 5 knots over the storm, contributing to the 5 knots of wind shear observed in this afternoon's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is currently not a problem for Alex.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.
Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am runs of the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, for example, take Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate that Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity. Residents of the Mexican coast south of Brownsville should make similar plans, as Alex could just as easily hit there.
Re-intensification of Alex is likely once the center of Alex moves offshore, though this will initially be slow due to the current disorganized state of the storm and the relatively low total ocean heat content in the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. A longer time spent over water will give Alex more of a chance to strengthen, and it is possible Alex could intensify into a major hurricane if landfall is delayed until Thursday or Friday. However, Alex's intensification may be limited the farther north it gets, as water vapor satellite images show plenty of dry air over Texas that might interfere with development. Wind shear might also be an issue for Alex if it pushes far enough north, and a slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 10% probability in my estimation.
Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts for Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands has been pretty much torn apart, and is no longer a threat to develop.
Next post
Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting an update on Alex late tonight. My next update will be Monday by 10am EDT.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Looks like Alex is moving north!!!
They know all about Hurricane Modification trust me!!!
NOAA actually REFUSED to work with the Department of Homeland Security [DHS]
on Hurricane Modification as of last year From what i understand.
Just because they dont take part in it doesnt mean they arent aware of it.
why do you think we have a track right now that doesnt make sense? and a storm that looked better over the YUCATAN than it does now over the warm Gulf Waters. LOL really.
Oh...another Joanie..:) I am keeping an eye on Alex myself but the mets here don't think its gonna come close this way....
For the purposes of visual description only, look at the satellite loop on your computer and draw your finger counter clockwise around Alex's main center/thunderstorms. Imagine winds accelerating over ocean, the imagine stronger onshore winds coming inland on the south side of Alex then decelerating over land. It not only adds to the stalling issue (as these stronger winds are on the south side of the storm in a stalled environment offer no forward motion), but it also adds to the "hug thy coast affect" as the onshore winds dominate and keep the storm in a "hug" pattern.
not good wow
Upper Texas coast and Louisiana need to really watch this thing!!
The last 2 center fixes (both 991) occurred 2 hours 10 minutes apart at a distance of 16 miles.
Over that time, Alex was moving at 7.4 mph on a heading of 330 degrees, i.e. approaching NNW.
This is not from eyeballing satellite, this is from actual HH vortex messages. No guesswork involved.
Edited to add: the most recent fix was at 5:33Z, about 2 1/2 hours prior to this post.
i wouldnt worry. Alex may be nothing more than a squall in a few days.
I'm thoroughly convinced they managed to beat Gustav down after it hit Cuba, too, as every model and every expert on here expected it to reform into a big Cat 4 or 5 over the Gulf Eddy, and it never did.
I've been thinking they've been hitting Alex hard, too, as why else wouldn't it form in the Carribean... why did it only develop an eye over land. I expect that to continue, too, as they simply have to keep it away from the oil.
Jo
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1522#commenttop
Shear,Dry Air,HAARP,Scalar EMF signals,Dyna Gel ..there are so many i can't list.
you are very informed flibinite. all of what you stated is true. people laugh and make jokes
but it is because they are just un-informed like most americans. sorry to say.
there is a big cover up in this area because of the liability is ridiculiously huge. so they just
catagorically deny it.
so you are the one who decides what is fact? really.
Do your own research and become educated before you speak so harshly.
I am discounting the center relocations especially, there is a solid strong surface circulation and I don't see that changing.
They looping seems related to the trough influence passing by and then a weak high building in behind.
heh, new blog.
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