Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana
Tropical Depression Alex has held together fairly well during its passage over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and stands poised to re-intensify back into a tropical storm once it emerges from the coast tonight. Alex brought heavy rains to northern Honduras, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize over the weekend. It was not a good beach day in Cozumel yesterday, as 9.25" of rain fell. Cancun received 2.05" over the weekend, and Belize City received 4.57". Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms are mostly gone near the center, though there are some impressive bands of precipitation well away from the center. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 5 knots over the storm, contributing to the 5 knots of wind shear observed in this afternoon's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is currently not a problem for Alex.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.
Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am runs of the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, for example, take Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate that Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity. Residents of the Mexican coast south of Brownsville should make similar plans, as Alex could just as easily hit there.
Re-intensification of Alex is likely once the center of Alex moves offshore, though this will initially be slow due to the current disorganized state of the storm and the relatively low total ocean heat content in the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. A longer time spent over water will give Alex more of a chance to strengthen, and it is possible Alex could intensify into a major hurricane if landfall is delayed until Thursday or Friday. However, Alex's intensification may be limited the farther north it gets, as water vapor satellite images show plenty of dry air over Texas that might interfere with development. Wind shear might also be an issue for Alex if it pushes far enough north, and a slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 10% probability in my estimation.
Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts for Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands has been pretty much torn apart, and is no longer a threat to develop.
Next post
Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting an update on Alex late tonight. My next update will be Monday by 10am EDT.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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No I mean 4 pm on Monday and prob no later than early Tuesday since it can slow down a tad. Remember the new standards 48 hours out is a watch now.
And where do those private forecasters get their information from???
NOAA and NHC maybe?
..Anyways see ya guys
NIce take Drak......good job!
ah well in that case then yea probably
Copy&paste TAM, MOB, PBI, SAL, 18.4N89.9W, 19.2N90.9W-19.4N91.3W, 18.7N90.6W-28.7n88.4w, 19.2N90.9W-28.7n88.4W, 19.4N91.3W-28.7n88.4W into the GreatCircleMapper.
The red line shows the heading based on the last two positions. Below the map shows:
TSAlex had a heading of 297.8degrees (~6degrees north of WestNorthWest), while
traveling a distance of 30miles (~48kilometres) over 6hours at a speed of ~5mph (~8kph);
TSAlex's distance from DeepwaterHorizon* decreased by 7miles from 673miles to 666miles;
the previous closure rate was ~5mph, and at the current closure rate of ~1mph,
TSAlex remains ~571hours away from the DeepwaterHorizon.
At 120hours away, personnel evacuations and shutdown procedures for ship evacuations begin.
(See the bottom of blog1521post705 for more info)
* Which I've been marking as 28.7n88.4W
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUN 2010 Time : 024500 UTC
Lat : 19:22:56 N Lon : 91:16:54 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1000.3mb/ 47.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.4 3.9
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb
Center Temp : -56.6C Cloud Region Temp : -45.9C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.92 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
raw number almost to Hurricane strength
Well, but the next big government initiative is going to be immigration reform/amnesty for illegals. So of COURSE they need a crisis in Mexico to...
OK even my tin foil glows in the dark and I'm unable to keep a straight face with that one... ;)
KATC (TV-3) is saying it can possibly hit near the Louisiana coast. They aren't really going by the NOAA predictions.
YES!! I am in SW LA too and that's what I heard..said not to worry about Alex too much..just not to worry.....
Great minds think alike. Then again, so do sick, twisted ones.... ;)
thanks in advance
matt
It's going to take time for the winds to catch up now that the center is off shore
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
The 00z runs aren't quite out yet, but you will be able to find them on the links under models. The NWS NCEP page will have the GFS on it and that will be one of the first 00z dynamical models that start coming out.
Yes, but they also said if it moves north it would accelerate...
wow glad you see that too ive been saying that all day the ull east of fla seems to be dragging some conv ne over fla now but everyone says its not go figure sure looks like it is
The 00z runs aren't quite out yet, but you will be able to find them on the links under models. The NWS NCEP page will have the GFS on it and that will be one of the first 00z dynamical models that start coming out.
The only thing I'm worried about is that my neighbors next door are in the process of raising their house. It can't take a strong wind or it'll blow it off the blocks. And it won't be done for a few more weeks..
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
The people who live there already know...
...and don't want to scare away the tourists who have yet to arrive.
Current Storms:
Alex
Quote by Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen at yesterday's press briefing
"If we get an indication that we have a chance for gale force winds at the wellhead, a 120 hours out in advance that’s when we'll make the decision."
http://www.enewspf.com/index.php/news/88888996-bpgulf-oil-spill/17257-press-briefing-by-national-in cident-commander-june-26-2010
You are correct on the CoC, it's actually underneath the small CDO on the North side of the system. Many people, myself included, were following a dry slot that is now clearly rotating around the CDO.
As for making a serious turn, no, i don't think so.
Ya thanks.....got lucky i guess!
If I remember correctly Dr. Masters was quoted on here earlier saying that residents in Louisiana should make preps. in anticipation of a hurricane landfall by Weds. By my math that is only 3 days from now.
A possibility. Not gonna rip my hair out about it though.
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