Alex is gone; the tropics are relatively quiet
Hurricane Alex is gone, killed by the high mountains of northern Mexico. Alex's rains linger on, and will continue to cause flooding problems in northern Mexico today. Alex killed at least 24 people in its week-long traverse of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. One death occurred in the Dominican Republic, and fourteen were killed in Central America. In Mexico, the outer rainbands of the storm killed three in Acapulco, one person in Oaxaca, and one person in Chiapas. Following its final landfall, Alex caused at least eight deaths in Nuevo León, with three persons reported missing. It is possible Alex will have its named retired, though I think it unlikely. One of the countries substantially affected by a hurricane must make a request to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to have the hurricane's name required. Mexico was the country most affected by Alex, and Mexico has been reluctant to make retirement requests in the past. For example, Mexico suffered two landfalls from Category 5 Hurricane Emily in 2005, yet did not request that Emily's name be retired; there will be a new storm named Emily next year.
I hope Alex will give the officials in charge of the BP oil disaster a bit of a wake up call. We've been told that five days are required to shut down operations in the event of tropical storm force winds are forecast for the clean-up region. It is very unrealistic to expect a five day warning, since the average track error in a 5-day forecast is about 300 miles. Furthermore, we have little skill forecasting the formation of tropical storms, and it is often the case that a tropical storm forms just a 1-day journey from the Deepwater Horizon blowout location. If we examine the incidence of tropical storm force winds in that region over the past five years, I suspect that they were successfully predicted five days in advance perhaps 30% of the time.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Alex at landfall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.
The tropics are relatively quiet
A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. Some of the models give support for an area of weak low pressure to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico along this front. NHC is giving a 10% chance of a tropical depression forming by 8am Sunday over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is also indicating development may occur by the middle of next week along the portion of the front offshore from South Carolina. There is also some suggestion by several models that a strong tropical disturbance may form by the middle of next week in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, or in the Western Caribbean. At this point, none of these possibilities are worthy of significant concern, though we'll keep to keep an eye on them.
I'll have an update Saturday afternoon. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I can still see 18 named systems.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THINGS GET UNCERTAIN...THOUGH INTERESTING
ONCE AGAIN FOR TEXAS. 12Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET SHOW ANOTHER POTENTIAL
CARIBBEAN SYSTEM TAKING A SIMILAR PATH LIKE ALEX DID ACROSS THE
YUCATAN AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ONCE AGAIN. WIDE SPREADS IN MED
RANGE MODELS REGARDING INTENSITY/TRACK. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN
MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH AND WELL SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO. THIS
SOLUTION MAY NOT BE TOO BAD SINCE THOSE WATERS WERE STIRRED UP
PRETTY WELL WITH SOME UPWELLING LIKELY BY ALEX HERE RECENTLY. THUS
WITH THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WITH DIURNAL...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WHILE
KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR NOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
Here we go again?????
'morning Storm!
I agree with that.
Probably so.
Setting up to rain here.
A wet weekend is planned!
src="http:////i.flhurricanes.com/images/2010/clark2latest.png" alt="" />
Very intresting, Is their going to be enough
mosture around 95L to really do any thing
before it get's to close to land to make a diffreance?
How is your Calabash tree? Has it started ti build an ark yet??
Link
and select the Corpus Christi meteogram, you will see that the CMC deterministic run is a major outlier with tropical development by day-5. The vast majority of the ensemble members don't support the solution.
The set-up for tropical cyclogeneis looks much favorable off the FL NE coast, given the pre-existing low level convergence, available moisture, and decreasing shear.
This is one time I would agree with "conspiracy theorists" that NHC did not act on a purely scientific basis, but based on the country's worst environmental disaster in history.
Good mornng storm,
Watch out for those porcupines
Linktry this leicaman
How is your Calabash tree? Has it started to build an ark yet??
Well, well, well! Blame Pottery's Calabash tree! It warned everyone that the tropics would get hammered with PLENTY of rain this rainy season :o).
We have had rain here in Arlington, TX 4 out of the last 5 days. Yesterday we had about 1.7" of rain in Arlington, TX. I was so happy I got out & played in the pouring rain, enjoying the torrential tropical downpour, compliment of the ghost of Hurricane Alex.
95L doing anything interesting yet *crosses fingers that they say no*
WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Clear
70.9 °F
Clear
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 66 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: 30.06 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 70 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
When 95L goes for the coast those lower dew points will be gone.
NRT...I believe they have to take extra consideration to this mess when making forecast this year. And I think they will do it for all the right reasons. My understanding is all of the oil companies have their own Mets, But the Government will have to adhere to NHC, when making a call.
I'm in the same boat. 2005 got its C storm (Cindy) on this date 5 years ago. 2005 got its D storm (Dennis). On this date tomorrow! 4 storms by July 4th.. Emily, Franklin, and Gert weren't far behind and by the end of the month of July we were on the "H" storm.
Definitely don't see that kind of activity, but I do see 18-20 storms, or around 8-10 storms less than 2005.
I agree, even the hint of a cyclone in that area should bring in the NHC and their expertise to assess the situation.
If it is on the ECMWF most of the time it gets the formation down well. By far the most accurate one.
Nope.
StormW "My thoughts exactly. In fact, I think they kinda jumped the gun by designating 95L in the first place."
I'm not sure "jumped the gun" is the proper descriptive. When the DeepwaterHorizon cleanup operation could be disrupted by any storm near the spill with a possibility of generating big waves, the formation of factors that could lead to that any storm seems to be worth Investigating.
Not saying it would have gotten an Invest had the spill not existed, but then nobody cares about a large number of sharks near shore unless there are swimmers in the water.
Looks like a definite spin around 77W and 12N or am I seeing things ?
Looks like the front is about as far south now as it's going to get, almost looks like 95L
is trying to get somthing going from it.
Hopefully it gets going N to aviod to big of a mess may be to slow to make a diffreance though.
I just went on the website.
One of their shorter trips maybe all year.
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