Alex is gone; the tropics are relatively quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:55 GMT le 02 juillet 2010

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Hurricane Alex is gone, killed by the high mountains of northern Mexico. Alex's rains linger on, and will continue to cause flooding problems in northern Mexico today. Alex killed at least 24 people in its week-long traverse of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. One death occurred in the Dominican Republic, and fourteen were killed in Central America. In Mexico, the outer rainbands of the storm killed three in Acapulco, one person in Oaxaca, and one person in Chiapas. Following its final landfall, Alex caused at least eight deaths in Nuevo León, with three persons reported missing. It is possible Alex will have its named retired, though I think it unlikely. One of the countries substantially affected by a hurricane must make a request to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to have the hurricane's name required. Mexico was the country most affected by Alex, and Mexico has been reluctant to make retirement requests in the past. For example, Mexico suffered two landfalls from Category 5 Hurricane Emily in 2005, yet did not request that Emily's name be retired; there will be a new storm named Emily next year.

I hope Alex will give the officials in charge of the BP oil disaster a bit of a wake up call. We've been told that five days are required to shut down operations in the event of tropical storm force winds are forecast for the clean-up region. It is very unrealistic to expect a five day warning, since the average track error in a 5-day forecast is about 300 miles. Furthermore, we have little skill forecasting the formation of tropical storms, and it is often the case that a tropical storm forms just a 1-day journey from the Deepwater Horizon blowout location. If we examine the incidence of tropical storm force winds in that region over the past five years, I suspect that they were successfully predicted five days in advance perhaps 30% of the time.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Alex at landfall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

The tropics are relatively quiet
A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. Some of the models give support for an area of weak low pressure to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico along this front. NHC is giving a 10% chance of a tropical depression forming by 8am Sunday over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is also indicating development may occur by the middle of next week along the portion of the front offshore from South Carolina. There is also some suggestion by several models that a strong tropical disturbance may form by the middle of next week in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, or in the Western Caribbean. At this point, none of these possibilities are worthy of significant concern, though we'll keep to keep an eye on them.

I'll have an update Saturday afternoon. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Yesterday was the start of the Victoria-Maui race. My sisters boat is in the race, its called the Turricum.

I will be keeping a very close eye on the EPAC, as most of the Skippers run down the coast to Diego or even further before making the cut across to Maui.

If anyone wants to keep track of the race, they can use this link.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Asgolfr99 what are you talking about.The blog was first active when I was on then pepole had left.


Let's just say I hope you take your afternoon nap soon and instead of dreaming about storms, please dream about sandwiches, then maybe my lunch will arrive. Thanks.
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NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
we may see 96L and 97L soon
WHERE DO YOU SEE 96L AND 97L..
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Quoting MrsOsa:


Am I crazy, or does that model show two systems knocking on my door in SE MS? 95L in 48-72 hours and another pop up storm at about 120 hours?
No your not crazy.I saw that to and I was like what ????
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Asgolfr99 what are you talking about.The blog was first active when I was on then pepole had left.
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Pressure at 42036 fell a little, though not the right time of day for diurnal cycle to do that.

Low did move a little closer to that buoy. Prolly just movement, rather than deepening. For now.



This one:
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00
ABNT20 KNHC 021736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE...CONTINUES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

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NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

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Quoting MrsOsa:


Am I crazy, or does that model show two systems knocking on my door in SE MS? 95L in 48-72 hours and another pop up storm at about 120 hours?


Yes 12z gfs is showing that
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
the blog is dead along with alex.


Not with your inanity every 30 seconds it isn't
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Quoting 7544:


agree coming sooon
which blobs?
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Quoting will45:
Link

12z gfs that makes 2 models bringing something to NC/SC


Am I crazy, or does that model show two systems knocking on my door in SE MS? 95L in 48-72 hours and another pop up storm at about 120 hours?
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Quoting atmoaggie:

??? Built way more convection on the north side than I thought it could with all of that dry air aloft...


Me too..as it was clearly struggling earlier.

I think maybe the near shore feed back from that GOM is helping and well,that dry column looks to fill in day.

Maybe.

Its creepy seeing something at so High a Lat Always..
Spinning W.

..towards DWH..or the "Black Pearl" as Im going with now.
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448. 7544
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
we may see 96L and 97L soon


agree coming sooon
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Quoting atmoaggie:

??? Built way more convection on the north side than I thought it could with all of that dry air aloft...
Yeah.Could 2010 be the year of surprises?
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almost 100% humidity.. it has moisture at the surface to work with, plus scorching hot water temperatures.. only thing stopping it is proximity to land, and dry air aloft.. shear is dropping rather rapidly
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NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

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Quoting atmoaggie:

??? Built way more convection on the north side than I thought it could with all of that dry air aloft...


check the dew points at the surface..
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Quoting Patrap:

??? Built way more convection on the north side than I thought it could with all of that dry air aloft...
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I think those thunderstorms in the carribean are due to day time heating.Anyone else agree.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:




If I'm looking at that map correctly I see 4 storms.Not gonna happen.No way.
Quoting FLdewey:
I think we have the next three initial blogger in the making.

Looks dark in Palm Bay... convection is getting going along 95.
Who are you talking about.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, July 2nd
Hey, Levi.

About that hard data penchant of mine, etc. no one brought up nrt. nrt knows NOAA's file systems so well and finds so many well-hidden things, NOAA should probably have him on speed dial should they not be able to find something...
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ESL GOM Low Cloud Product 95L
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Quoting Hurricanes101

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think you are right Baltimorebirds we should have 96L soon and maybe TD2/TS BONNIE unless if that blob near Panama becomes 96L and maybe becomes TD2/TS BONNIE then that wave would be comes 97L maybe TD3/TS COLIN


Wow ok don't get ahead of yourself here


LOL
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We have been tracking at least 1 invest every day since June 11th when 92L formed

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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, July 2nd
Hey Levie32.How are you?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think you are right Baltimorebirds we should have 96L soon and maybe TD2/TS BONNIE unless if that blob near Panama becomes 96L and maybe becomes TD2/TS BONNIE then that wave would be comes 97L maybe TD3/TS COLIN


Wow ok don't get ahead of yourself here
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I think you are right Baltimorebirds we should have 96L soon and maybe TD2/TS BONNIE unless if that blob near Panama becomes 96L and maybe becomes TD2/TS BONNIE then that wave would be comes 97L maybe TD3/TS COLIN
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the blog is dead along with alex.
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I think we have the next three initial blogger in the making.

Looks dark in Palm Bay... convection is getting going along 95.
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by Paul Murphy / Eyewitness News

wwltv.com

Posted on July 1, 2010 at 6:04 PM

Updated yesterday at 6:16 PM

The ship is hard to miss.

The Taiwanese-flagged vessel appropriately dubbed "A Whale" is three and a half football fields long and 10-stories high.

The world's largest skimming vessel is now anchored in the Mississippi River down in Boothville.

"It ought to be out there sucking up oil," said Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser.

While the ship may be ready to work, it still has some bureaucratic hurdles to jump and tests to pass before the Coast Guard allows it to join the fight in the Gulf.

"The owners made an offer to bring it down at their expense and have it operate in the Gulf to see if it'd be effective," said BP spill National Incident Commander Thad Allen. "We have worked with epa and other agencies to give it a go and it's down in the area and will be ready to operate in a couple of days."

The ship was originally designed as the world's largest super-tanker.

It was modified after the BP explosion to scoop up 21 million gallons of oily water per day.

A series of vents on both sides of the bow suck in the polluted liquid.

"We'll let it settle a little bit and hopefully it will decant off the oil and the water, much like you separate oil from gravy in your kitchen," said Bob Grantham, spokesman for the vessel's owner TMT.

According to the Coast Guard, the government is anxious to board the super-skimmer to see if it would actually be an effective tool to pick up oil. But, like so many things during this oil spill response, the technology has never been tested in the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

"The only way we're going to find out is by putting the vessel down there and see what it can do," said Grantham.
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Quoting IKE:
Alex part 2, on the 12Z CMC?

Also develops something off the Carolinas.
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From the eastern North Pacific Ocean list of names, “Alma” was retired and replaced in the 2014 list by “Amanda”.

Whew... for the sake of future sanity on this blog, I am glad "Amanda" was sent "over there".
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Link

12z gfs that makes 2 models bringing something to NC/SC
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Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, July 2nd
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Waters in the atlantic have cooled in the past few weeks.Look at the wunderground maps on sst.
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The wavi in the central atlantic has the highest chance to be bonnie in my opinion.
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My forecast for the season is for 14-16 named storms.
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Local analysis, NWS Melbourne

Looks like the pressure dropped a bit.

Wind & Pressure

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Quoting guygee:

Oily waves come ashore Orange Beach AL on June 30 (AP Photo/Dave Martin).
That's sad.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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