Alex is gone; the tropics are relatively quiet
Hurricane Alex is gone, killed by the high mountains of northern Mexico. Alex's rains linger on, and will continue to cause flooding problems in northern Mexico today. Alex killed at least 24 people in its week-long traverse of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. One death occurred in the Dominican Republic, and fourteen were killed in Central America. In Mexico, the outer rainbands of the storm killed three in Acapulco, one person in Oaxaca, and one person in Chiapas. Following its final landfall, Alex caused at least eight deaths in Nuevo León, with three persons reported missing. It is possible Alex will have its named retired, though I think it unlikely. One of the countries substantially affected by a hurricane must make a request to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to have the hurricane's name required. Mexico was the country most affected by Alex, and Mexico has been reluctant to make retirement requests in the past. For example, Mexico suffered two landfalls from Category 5 Hurricane Emily in 2005, yet did not request that Emily's name be retired; there will be a new storm named Emily next year.
I hope Alex will give the officials in charge of the BP oil disaster a bit of a wake up call. We've been told that five days are required to shut down operations in the event of tropical storm force winds are forecast for the clean-up region. It is very unrealistic to expect a five day warning, since the average track error in a 5-day forecast is about 300 miles. Furthermore, we have little skill forecasting the formation of tropical storms, and it is often the case that a tropical storm forms just a 1-day journey from the Deepwater Horizon blowout location. If we examine the incidence of tropical storm force winds in that region over the past five years, I suspect that they were successfully predicted five days in advance perhaps 30% of the time.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Alex at landfall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.
The tropics are relatively quiet
A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. Some of the models give support for an area of weak low pressure to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico along this front. NHC is giving a 10% chance of a tropical depression forming by 8am Sunday over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is also indicating development may occur by the middle of next week along the portion of the front offshore from South Carolina. There is also some suggestion by several models that a strong tropical disturbance may form by the middle of next week in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, or in the Western Caribbean. At this point, none of these possibilities are worthy of significant concern, though we'll keep to keep an eye on them.
I'll have an update Saturday afternoon. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
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Yep.
Lot's of models that mostly disagree. But as the other posts point out conditions are not favorable for development of more than a subtropical system which doesn't get the really high winds of pure tropical system. You might get some 35knot winds offshore around Monday/Tuesday but that should be about it.
The NHC/TPC does not control the naming of tropical storms. Instead, a list of names has been established by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. For Atlantic hurricanes, there is actually one list for each of six years. In other words, one list is repeated every seventh year. The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.
Link
Given his track record, I would not be surprised; he tends to be a human CMC
Really?!?!?!?! What do you think Ike?
1)The I storm's place in the list generally puts it around the peak of the season.
2)It replaced Ivan when it was retired.
3)It's name means warrior with bow or something.
I will laugh SO HARD if it turns out to be a 40mph TS out in the middle of nowhere LOL
LOL
ShearMap
CATL looks more interesting than GOM, but what do I know?
we already have 95L
Human CMC...Love it, Flood. You certainly have a way with the English language.
That explain why Emily wasn't retired.
No US landfall or deaths?
Thats bull, as someone explained earlier; it is up to Mexico to request a storm names retirement
Has nothing to do with the fact that it did not hit the US
Whoa are you like psychic or something? lol That would be amazing (although very unfortunate) if that happened.
I think he was pointing out the 6 deaths part. Right click and hit view image LOL
I love Bill Murray in anything.
Anyway, not getting the poop about the GOM AOI. Not with all that dry air, shear, whatever. Much more interesting is the wave between 40-50W with a nice little upper high over it (right?) and moisture ahead to clear its path.
Looks like a big rain maker...for me....according to the spurious GFS.
isnt their a rule that a country cannot request the retirement of more than 1 storm per season?
If so that is an easy way to explain why Emily was not retired
Great..Now we have dreamcasters.
yep...me too
Sure sounds better than a spurious shower curtain caster!
I've taken LSD before, too. Just 'cause you see it, doesn't mean it's there.
Northern or Northeastern Gulf of Mexico Development This Weekend??: Now that Alex has dissipated over inland Mexico, we need to quickly shift our attention to the northern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico where development is possible this weekend. The reason behind this potential development is a stalled frontal system that is positioned across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Even though low pressure is developing in the extreme northeast Gulf of Mexico just south of the Florida Panhandle, wind shear values of 30+knots will prevent tropical development for the time being.
With that said, pretty much all of the forecast guidance are forecasting some intensification of this low pressure system throughout Saturday and through Sunday. This low pressure system is ultimately forecast to come ashore in southeastern Louisiana during Monday. Looking at the overall forecast environmental conditions this weekend, it looks only marginally favorable, at best, for development, however, with sea surface temperatures being so hot in this area, this system will have to be closely watched for tropical cyclone development as it drifts westward close to the northern Gulf coast this weekend.
So, bottom line is that while I think tropical development is very possible in the northern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, any system should remain fairly weak (Tropical Depreesion or a low end Tropical Storm) due to a combination of it being close to land and only marginally favorable environmental conditions.
Western Caribbean/Southern Gulf of Mexico Development Middle to Later Part Of Next Week??: I will be closely monitoring the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical cyclone development next week, especially from Wednesday and beyond. Model guidance like the European and the GFS-Parallel models are forecasting development from a tropical wave now located in the extreme southeastern Caribbean. Environmental conditions are currently forecast to be favorable for development and this will be something to really watch out for. It should be noted that the European model forecasts this potential system to come ashore near or just north of Corpus Christi, TX next Friday and the Parallel GFS model is a bit slower in the development and movement and ultimately forecasts this potential system to come ashore in central and southeastern Louisiana around July 13th.
Obviously, this is something that I will be monitoring very closely over the next several days and I will keep you all updated.
One final tidbit of information, the Madden Julian Oscillation is currently becoming stuck in a favorable phase here in the Atlantic; therefore, pretty much all of the upward motion energy is here in the Atlantic. This type of scenario of the MJO being stuck in a favorable phase may happen quite often this season; in fact, no significant or long lasting downward motion (unfavorable) pulses are expected anytime soon. So, the tropics are likely to remain active
I expect Fiona will be an ogre of a storm.
But look at the shear waiting for it.
What about Paloma, it has no direct deaths and less damage than alex and got retired.
Director of NHC
I wasn't implying that was the case. The post I quoted was stating how the WMO uses death and destruction as reason for retiring names. I guess a death toll of 6 and damage around a billion don't suffice, unless directly requested by affected nation. Heck, imo, one death warrants retirement, as some poor souls family will always remember the name. The wunderground map doesn't show international costs, so that figure is from Here
12z CMC
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