Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting btwntx08:

we know who u r..we can tell by that u spell the(teh)liar

Quoting SiestaCpl:


Passing you a glass of something strong on the way to dinner....

Quoting IKE:


So does vulgarity.




LOL....nothing on TV this entertaining.

Quoting Kristina40:
It seems like this nonsense starts the same time each night. I may have to rethink my ignore list.

Quoting IKE:


Best time to be on here is early morning....5-9 am.

Quoting skkippboo:


How do they let you know?

Quoting aquak9:
Zombie alert- code red

Quoting txsweetpea:
Can anyone tell me if 96L has made any progress towards developing?

Quoting txsweetpea:
Can anyone tell me if 96L has made any progress towards developing?

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's Joey B's take on 95 this afternoon.

There is no change to my idea on the system in the northern gulf, it is doing what it was supposed to do, but if anything, we are getting a prime example of what is wrong with TPC and why my two suggested ideas.. 1 on how to classify ( closed rotary circulation, gales in on quad and 2) how to judge the intensity of the storm, incorporating pressure and pressure tendency on a 1-10 scale would be better. In any case a forecaster came in and saw what all saw, that this had a vigorous low to mid level circulation that could cause strong winds in a small area, so he upgraded. What should have been done before could have been handled with special tropical disturbance statements, rather than just blowing it off as a 10% chance. That is not to say it should be named, it is to say that the perception is that there is a sudden jump in intensity, when that is plainly not the case! What happened was a change of the shift and someone looking hard at the data and making a judgement call. Of course you and I have to react, to I have to let all my clients know that its the same as has been described, the weather has not changed, just the forecaster for TPC did and decided to handle it differently

You get what I am talking about. And this person has had several "experiences" where he walked into a hornets nest... a storm that was developing without the previous shift even saying anything. For you Texans.. remember the morning of Allison, the 5 am bulletin, or Humberto?

But like I said, if Alex is any indication, we are in for a long season, and I am talking not only about the actual weather, but the explanations I will have to give. It would be funny if it werent so serious, but it has spread to other matters, non weather related ( I dont know how much more economic recovery I can take over here... I feel guilty the way things have been going so good there too)

I am developing a dark side

Now the most obvious problem in the northwest gulf is still forecasted to not line up the low and mid level centers enough so that it wont be a big storm. But here is the problem and why the area from Corpus Christi to the Louisiana coast should be concerned. These large scale pattern development systems need time to develop. One can plainly see a mid level rotation center east of the northern coast of the Yucatan. Gales are being reported from ships south of the west tip of Cuba where the low and mid level flows are lined up. But the system leans southeast from the low level center near the northeast coast of the Yucatan to the mid level center. If such a system were to line up, look out, another case of rapid feedback development. I dont think this will have the time. However I do think and area of tropical storm conditions, with gales and heavy rains, will pinwheel on the right side of the system, and that means the threat of 6-12 hours of heavy rain... and no matter how its classified ( after what we have been seeing, who knows, right) tropical storm like conditions on the upper Texas or Louisiana coast later Wednesday or Thursday


Now, here is why New England has to sleep with one eye open ( Canadian maritimes too) The upper low that is well east of the coast will back southwest the next several days and entrain the energy from the tropical wave near Puerto Rico. There is plenty of heat around, no doubt about that, the ocean is boiling off the east coast relative to the time of the year. With a major ridge building over the central Atlantic and a trough in the middle of the nation, the area southeast of Hatteras would be a nice place for this wave to get entrained into a falling pressure field caused by the upper low backing, and feedback and develop. A TPC nightmare of course since they tend to ignore things like that, and then its a 50-50 chance if it ever gets classified ( Jersey Devil) anyway. But there is some African influence here and the MJO is locked in octant 2, so one never can be sure if the whack a mole pattern doesnt deliver in cases like this.

Notes and asides: I see the polar temp has been below normal much of the summer

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My question to the NHC:

If you are just going to put it right back to 0%, what's the purpose of raising it to 60%.

I've got a feeling that mister "STEWART" is going to get an ear fold by the big honcho.

Quoting Kristina40:
Look all, I'm a newbie here so I sure don't have any "weather creds" but I come here for some good information and to gain knowledge.

Quoting TXStormWatcher2011:


Hi Kristina40, many of us have no more credentials than you have to post here. Don't let the 'spoilers' get you down. I've never felt intimidated here by the PhD's etc... Enjoy! :)