Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

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5101. Tazmanian 23:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Updates are given every 6 hours, next one is at 00:00 UTC. Basically wait another hour. my poor F 5 key Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111327

5103. leo305 23:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: 95L making a hard left ? What do you think Pat ? the center is moving WNW on visible Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

5104. msmama51 23:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting aquak9: Actually, it's better for home-owners who sustain damage, to NOT have any sort of named storm watch/warning in place. At least here in Florida. Tree falls on house in summer thunderstorm- ya pay yer deductable, all's cool. Same tree, same damage, during a named storm watch/warning? You gotta pay the "hurricane" deductable first, which could be ten times as much as the regular deductable. Zombie alert back to code null. Rabies shot still on schedule. Please tell me what a zombie is in here? Member Since: 4 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 68

5105. bappit 23:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: I know Orca, but got some of the folks who sent me to the Conference to further my knowledge, I bring it back here, and well..... Seems it is okay to say mets working for NOAA don't know what they are talking about (see yesterday). Member Since: 18 mai 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4364

5106. JLPR2 23:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Kristina40: Various ways. The wild ones do as well, watch the birds. When they go silent and disappear, it might be time to hunker down. The domestics tend to act distressed, like they instinctively know they should be running. Dog paces from room to room and wants to be as close to me as possible. The cats pace and meow and run around like loons. Yeah I remember my parakeets were going nuts during Hurricane Georges, well they are now deceased :( But yeah, animals, even ants know XD Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

5107. plywoodstatenative 23:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting oakland: I've been watching the western side of it move my way all day. I'm amazed it held together all the way from Naples Move? That thing has been moving quite slowly all day and that is the reason for the advisories and warnings that were posted for our areas. Member Since: 15 novembre 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

5108. mrsalagranny 23:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Hey sweetie.How are you tonight?Are you getting a lot of rain from the outer bands of 95l?If thats what they call it. Member Since: 6 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 731

5109. stormpetrol 23:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Funny last night and early this morning all heavy convection was to the East of 96L , it seems as of midday and this evening it has switched to the west side Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

5110. AlexEmmett 23:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Seastep: Sorry, forgot the pic in 5055... Here it is: better get that fixed never know when the next cane will strike

5111. MiamiHurricanes09 23:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
To minimize the already 5100 post blog I'll be the only person posting the 8PM TWO. It will be greatly appreciated. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5112. StormSurgeon 23:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Wow, 102 pages. Went back to page 2 and read a few posts. There were two dinosaurs arguing about the projected path of hurricane Barney. Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

5113. xcool 23:43 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Link rader loop for 96L Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

5114. skkippboo 23:43 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Kristina40: Various ways. The wild ones do as well, watch the birds. When they go silent and disappear, it might be time to hunker down. The domestics tend to act distressed, like they instinctively know they should be running. Dog paces from room to room and wants to be as close to me as possible. The cats pace and meow and run around like loons. Our 6 dogs and countless cats didn't act too weird last week when Alex landed 100 miles south of us, but my ears were popping the day before till it dissipated. The dogs just hid in the dog houses during the rain, the cats hid too, I guess. Member Since: 19 avril 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 132

5115. AlexEmmett 23:43 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: To minimize the already 5000+ blog I'll be the only person posting the 8PM TWO. It will be greatly appreciated. go for it i hope people will listen

5116. xcool 23:43 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
AT 40% NHC Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

5117. oakland 23:44 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: Move? That thing has been moving quite slowly all day and that is the reason for the advisories and warnings that were posted for our areas. Yes move, granted it seems to be at about 1mph, but yea it's been movin'. It's also been expanding so it appears to stay in place. Member Since: 4 septembre 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7520

5118. Orcasystems 23:44 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: To minimize the already 5100 blog I'll be the only person posting the 8PM TWO. It will be greatly appreciated. Ummm why don't you just post a link to it... then no one has to post it :) Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

5120. PensacolaBuoy 23:45 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
To minimize the already 5000+ blog, you can be the only person posting the 8PM TWO. It will be greatly appreciated. Member Since: 28 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 348

5122. Kristina40 23:45 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Baltimorebirds: Fox news says...possible tropical depression in gulf....... Nice to see they are really on top of things... Member Since: 27 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

5123. msgambler 23:46 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting mrsalagranny: Hey sweetie.How are you tonight?Are you getting a lot of rain from the outer bands of 95l?If thats what they call it. Yeah we got some this morning for about 3 hours but it has been sunshining since. But a little is better than none. Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

5125. Tazmanian 23:46 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
there late Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111327

5126. mrsalagranny 23:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Up my way started getting it this afternoon.Heavy squalls too I might add. Member Since: 6 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 731

5127. Patrap 23:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
95L now analyzed at 1008 mb Low Floater - Visible Loop Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

5128. USSINS 23:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: The tar balls are 100% natural phenomenon. We have not seen any evidence to suggest these tar balls are in any way connected to the relatively minor Deep Water Horizons event. You can't believe everything you hear on CNN and FOX news. This oil spill is nowhere near as bad as they are claiming. Heck, it's barely a trickle. BP is gonna clean it all up. It's their oil. Give it a few months and you small people will never know it happened. Tony Hayward has canceled all of his vacations so he could concentrate on cleaning up the oil spill, and just the other day, he even skipped lunch. I even saw him shoveling some oiled sand personally! The oil containment efforts have been a massive success as BP continues to bring in more resources to skim off lots and lots of oil, as well as capture it directly from the busted well. There is no evidence of cracked oceanic crust leaking additional oil, that was just a rumor. BP has given a 100% chance of success from the relief wells. They are guaranteed to work! I mean, they are double redundant, so if anything went wrong the second one is SURE to work right? What more can we do? Make them triple redundant? That's overkill! This is sarcasm, right?

5129. plywoodstatenative 23:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting oakland: Yes move, granted it seems to be at about 1mph, but yea it's been movin' just watch there will be photos of ppl using canoes in the southern part of broward. Member Since: 15 novembre 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

5130. wfyweather 23:48 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
its a ts or the 8 would have already been out Member Since: 12 juillet 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

5131. oakland 23:48 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: just watch there will be photos of ppl using canoes in the southern part of broward. I don't doubt it! :-) Member Since: 4 septembre 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7520

5132. MiamiHurricanes09 23:48 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: there late Don't post it Taz...Lol. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5133. plywoodstatenative 23:48 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
If you think this # of posts is crazy. Wait for the season to really get popping. Member Since: 15 novembre 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

5135. Tazmanian 23:49 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Don't post it Taz...Lol. lol Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111327

5136. MiamiHurricanes09 23:49 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting wfyweather: its a ts or the 8 would have already been out There would have already been a renumber if so. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5137. Hardcoreweather2010 23:49 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I have got the 2 but I can't post it. Miami you have got mail :) Member Since: 24 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

5138. Patrap 23:49 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
96L to swing that energy into the GOM via da channel seems. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

5140. wunderkidcayman 23:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
This is what I think stormpet the one at 19N 83W is the MLC and the one at 18N 82W is the LLC or the MLC making it way to the LL maybe when D-MAX kick in the convection will help out and maybe it could stall and stick around and take advantage of that hot water to the west of us Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5395

5141. JLPR2 23:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: There would have already been a renumber if so. yeah, they seem to be thinking it LOL Well, they have till 8 to publish it and be on time :) Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

5142. aquak9 23:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting msmama51: Please tell me what a zombie is in here? you have wu-mail. Top of the screen, red "mail" icon. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25006

5143. mrsalagranny 23:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
What do you mean FLdeway? Member Since: 6 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 731

5144. MiamiHurricanes09 23:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: I have got the 2 but I can't post it. Miami you have got mail :) Lol, you haven't sent me anything. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5145. Hurricanes101 23:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: I have got the 2 but I can't post it. Miami you have got mail :) you do not have the TWO, it isn't out yet did you call the NHC or something? Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

5146. Kristina40 23:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Cantore doing the Tropical update right now. Talking about 95L and how it could have been classified a TD. Member Since: 27 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

5147. xcool 23:51 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
KABOOM Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

5148. MiamiHurricanes09 23:51 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: you do not have the TWO, it isn't out yet did you call the NHC or something? LOL! Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5149. Hardcoreweather2010 23:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: you do not have the TWO, it isn't out yet did you call the NHC or something? No but sit in on the Conference calls all the time :) Member Since: 24 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

5150. Tazmanian 23:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
still no two Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111327

5151. oakland 23:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting aquak9: you have wu-mail. Top of the screen, red "mail" icon. Aqua, I've been out awhile. Would you tell me too, please? Thanx Member Since: 4 septembre 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7520

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