Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

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5151. oakland 23:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting aquak9: you have wu-mail. Top of the screen, red "mail" icon. Aqua, I've been out awhile. Would you tell me too, please? Thanx Member Since: 4 septembre 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7520

5152. Hurricanes101 23:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Kristina40: Cantore doing the Tropical update right now. Talking about 95L and how it could have been classified a TD. based on the criteria, it could not the main sticking points with it not being named is it was frontal the entire time up until about 3 hours ago, and 95L has yet to exhibit PERSISTENT convection Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

5153. Patrap 23:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Kristina40: Cantore doing the Tropical update right now. Talking about 95L and how it could have been classified a TD. He's a Big Lurker seems Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

5154. SiestaCpl 23:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: 95L now analyzed at 1008 mb Low Floater - Visible Loop Part of the importance of 95L is that it is bringing more moisture into an otherwise dry atmosphere in the western gulf as this will sweeten the atmosphere for a possible 96L path. Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

5155. Hurricanes101 23:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: No but sit in on the Conference calls all the time :) ok so based on your smile and the email, lemme gueess NHC either upgraded 95L to a TD or TS OR the percentage went up and they plan on classifying it at 11pm Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

5156. Hardcoreweather2010 23:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: He's a Big Lurker seems How can somebody that's 4'9 be big ? Member Since: 24 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

5157. Kristina40 23:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting SiestaCpl: Part of the importance of 95L is that it is bringing more moisture into an otherwise dry atmosphere in the western gulf as this will sweeten the atmosphere for a possible 96L path. Another worry... Member Since: 27 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

5158. MiamiHurricanes09 23:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Guess the NHC got somethin' good for us in the TWO...lol. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5159. mcluvincane 23:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
96L really looking good at the moment. Member Since: 2 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

5161. Patrap 23:54 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

5163. MiamiHurricanes09 23:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: ok so based on your smile and the email, lemme gueess NHC either upgraded 95L to a TD or TS OR the percentage went up and they plan on classifying it at 11pm If he is right I'll do something nice, lol. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5164. xcool 23:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
MiamiHur :0 . Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

5165. 422brzyldy 23:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Kristina40: Cantore doing the Tropical update right now. Talking about 95L and how it could have been classified a TD. Yeah, saw that. I think he lurks on wu blog more than I do... Member Since: 1 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 9

5166. wfyweather 23:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
ive never seen it this late Member Since: 12 juillet 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

5167. weathermancer 23:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
96L forming spokes-on-a-wheel feeder storms. Sign of the tropical centering technique. Member Since: 29 août 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

5168. xcool 23:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
<< NO TALK JUST GO LOL Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

5169. Tazmanian 23:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
still waiting lol Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

5170. SiestaCpl 23:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Kristina40: Another worry... We WERE enjoying unseasonably dry weather here in LA..but now..bands of tropical rain...and darn humid...95L will pump the moisture in from the FL rain disturbances and suck the dry in from the Western gulf emptying that dry zone just in time for a 96L possible approach... Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

5171. CybrTeddy 23:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: If he is right I'll do something nice, lol. Guess we're about to find out. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20279

5173. skkippboo 23:57 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting wfyweather: ive never seen it this late Probably never watched it this close. Member Since: 19 avril 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 132

5174. xcool 23:57 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
btwntx08 YOU FIND OUT Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

5175. ElConando 23:58 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Prob be somthing like this. Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie. Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

5176. MiamiHurricanes09 23:58 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting btwntx08: probably doing a special advisory thats why its taking long There isn't anything that warrants a special advisory, especially not 95L. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5177. Hurricanes101 23:58 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting ElConando: Prob be somthing like this. Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie. LMAO Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

5178. wfyweather 23:58 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
what if they did it after 8 lol Member Since: 12 juillet 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

5179. muddertracker 23:58 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting ElConando: Prob be somthing like this. Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie. roflmao...or maybe they upgrade it red- 98% Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2127

5180. Patrap 23:58 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I bet the NHC guy ready to Hit "Post" is smirking big time. Now? How bout now? really..wait? Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

5181. Kristina40 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: LMAO That's pretty much the same warning I got for Claudette last year. Member Since: 27 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

5182. skkippboo 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Geez, Still two min. before the hour and calling them late? Member Since: 19 avril 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 132

5183. beell 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Thought this site might be useful if you have the ICAO station ID. But it seems like they can't keep time well. Maybe it will get straighter, later. The 6:43PM obs was posted long before 6:43PM CDT Cozumel Surface Obs (MMCZ-Cozumel International) ESE @ 8knots 1009.5 mb MMCZ Latest obs for this one showing 8:45PM, July 5th? What time zone? Cancun Surface Obs (MMUN-Cancun International) Calm 1009.1 MMUN ICAO 4-Letter Identifiers for Bahamas/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12890

5184. GeoffreyWPB 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Ike is quick on the trigger. He will post it first! Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

5185. MiamiHurricanes09 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting ElConando: Prob be somthing like this. Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie. LMAO! Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5187. weathermancer 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting ElConando: Prob be somthing like this. Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie. LOL Member Since: 29 août 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

5188. wfyweather 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
1 minute Member Since: 12 juillet 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

5189. SiestaCpl 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Nice spin localizing around 86w 20n... Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

5190. muddertracker 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Maybe the NHC guys and gals are all trapped in the "disagreement" room...lol Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2127

5192. Inactivity 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI Member Since: 23 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264

5193. MiamiHurricanes09 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
000 ABNT20 KNHC 052358 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5195. calder 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
000 ABNT20 KNHC 052358 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI Member Since: 26 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 412

5196. wfyweather 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
WTF NEAR 0 PERCENT Member Since: 12 juillet 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

5197. Hurricanes101 23:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
LMAO back to near 0% LMAO Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

5198. Hardcoreweather2010 00:00 GMT le 06 juillet 2010
Really 0% ? Member Since: 24 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

5199. JLPR2 00:00 GMT le 06 juillet 2010
Quoting ElConando: Prob be somthing like this. Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie. haha! XD now that would make me laugh till tomorrow :P Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

5200. TropicalNonsense 00:00 GMT le 06 juillet 2010
Surprisingly,18z HWRF doesnt develop 96L significantly and takes it into upper Texas coast in about 4 days. Member Since: 3 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524

5201. msgambler 00:00 GMT le 06 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: I bet the NHC guy ready to Hit "Post" is smirking big time. LOL Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

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