Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting xcool:
look out ROB BIG BIG MOM COME FOR YOU .

Send 96L into TX, we can really use the rain :O)! No wind, just bring a soaking rain to SE TX into N TX, thanks :O)!!

Quoting extreme236:


That's crazy.

The most I could see 96L at the point in time is a 40mph TS and I'm being aggressive.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF takes 96L through the northernmost tip of the Yucatan as a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane and then to Texas. On its way to Texas it remains as a weak system in the GOM because of low TCHP.

do we most go overe the TCHP thing how many times have i been trying too say it

Quoting Tazmanian:



too me thats a little too fast

The SHIP was the most aggressive with Alex, as it is again with 96. BUT, it was the only one that was right with the strength.

Trouble is a lurking in 96L,..for somebody's coast.

96L - is this going to be a repeat Alex track?

Hi Everyone...Happy July 4th....

Quoting StormW:


LMAO!

That was too funny, lmao! don't worry StormW, it's a sign of respect ;), right Orcasystems?

Orcas, when he hijacks my photo and impersonates me he is worth getting stomped on.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The most I could see 96L at the point in time is a 40mph TS and I'm being aggressive.

Eh, I think it could get somewhat stronger than that. Its all going to depend on how fast it organizes. If it becomes a tropical depression tomorrow, I easily see it being a moderate tropical storm.

Quoting Orcasystems:


The SHIP was the most aggressive with Alex, as it is again with 96. BUT, it was the only one that was right with the strength.

oh

Quoting TankHead93:
That was too funny, lmao! don't worry StormW, it's a sign of respect ;), right Orcasystems?

He knows.. just two old sailors poking fun :)

Quoting xcool:
happy 4 july all

Same to you buddy.

Quoting Crawls:
96L - is this going to be a repeat Alex track?

I'm thinking of a more northerly track, instead of a Mexico landfall this one might threat Texas. Also, 96L will be weaker than Alex because Alex drained the Gulf of heat content.

I think the CMC is moving 96L too fast. The ECMWF on the 00z run didn't have it making landfall till around 144 hours.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.9 82.9 290./11.1
6 16.5 83.0 357./ 6.7
12 17.0 86.2 279./31.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 12 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

Crawls .really no clue

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Orcas, when he hijacks my photo and impersonates me he is worth getting stomped on.

come on now not worth geting a banned

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Orcas, when he hijacks my photo and impersonates me he is worth getting stomped on.

Oh I didn't say he didn't deserve it :)
I just said he isn't worth it.
He is just like the runt of the litter trying to get attention.

Quoting skepticall2:


Oh Houston doesn't need anymore right now. Katy still may be under water.

Further down the coast, putting the heaviest rain to your west, that would be ideal, giving S Central TX into N & NE TX a good dose of rain.

From the "Ghost of Alex" & the weak surface boundary the Arlington Municipal AP has 4.70" of rain, from 6-28 through 7-3-10. We need another 2-4" to catch up to "normal" for the year.

Quoting extreme236:


Eh, I think it could get somewhat stronger than that. Its all going to depend on how fast it organizes. If it becomes a tropical depression tomorrow, I easily see it being a moderate tropical storm.

That's true, but it doesn't have a surface low level circulation, so unless it organizes quite rapidly and develops a closed surface low by tomorrow it is unlikely it will be a TD tomorrow. Either way, I do think that 96L will eventually become Bonnie, but not in the next 30 hours.

Hey Storm, have a look at this. Tell me that the system off our coast is helping or not to produce this:

http://english.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=1 5&scale=0.125&noclutter=1&ID=AMX&type=NCR&showstorms=99&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&sc ale=0.125¢erx=192¢ery=784&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_s tns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

LOL, GFDL kills 96L in 12 hours. It did the same thing with 93L for those who remember.

.

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico


As of Sun 04 Jul 2010 17:00:02Z

Latest/new discussion on 96L...

"TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN
77W-86W."

After all the HWRF takes 96L to Mexico.

HWRF 12z 120 hours

Surface pressures are falling...Winds corresponding as well.

guys.... Alex absolutely drained the gulf of mexico of warm waters... 96L may develop into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm... but it will not measure up to Alex.... unless it stalls or something and lets the heat content build back up

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, GFDL kills 96L in 12 hours. It did the same thing with 93L for those who remember.

Just before that it had winds of TS strength, they were probably far away from the inner nest so thats probably why it disipated it.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
After all the HWRF takes 96L to Mexico.

HWRF 12z 120 hours

Alex part 2

GOM disturbance blew up since last night..or at least a little.

take models throw it out the door

orange

Quoting Drakoen:
orange

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN

Quoting ThePlywoodState:


Perdon, was that a threat, analfabeto? Ooooooohhhhhhhhh, you are certainly asking for it now, Keeps. Oh, admin................

dont start it JFV

old dirty 95L SHOWS LIFE

Surprising....

IS JFV HERE

Quoting ThePlywoodState:


Hasta ahi llegastes, xxxxxxxxxx, ya lo veras, ^_^.

reported... no need for language like that

Quoting xcool:
take models throw it out the door

ok well do

The images from the LSU site are creating havoc on my internet connection

Every other page loads fine for me and when there are no LSU images on the page here it loads fine as well