A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4751 - 4701

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

4751. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


Negative...this shows how the front comes across Florida and goes up in LA.

Someone said 96L is becoming better organized. Where the organization? I cant find it. The Floater looks disorganized.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Quoting StormW:


Negative...this shows how the front comes across Florida and goes up in LA.



We are gonna disagree on this one.....I see it detached at the very end. Sorry!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm thinking- just board up now, if ya live along the Gulf Coast, then sit back and relax. If something comes it comes, if it doesn't oh well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Ok...then where was the organized convection for the 12-24 hours the NHC requires?
Yep, not there.

And the cloud tops, at present, aren't all that tall, to be honest.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4745. Drakoen
Wow I come back to see that 95L has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm lol
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't expect a renumber from 95L, but if we do get one it will be as it makes landfall.
Well, as I was saying yesterday, these small systems that form... well... on the end of a FRONT can ramp up rather quickly. Looks like some of the louisiana coast will be experiencing tropical storm Bonnie tonight.

Told ya'll not to down-cast that system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4743. Patrap
Folks can go back to 3 am here and see some were yakking up 95L organization.

But that may require effort, so I digress.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
Okay i live in South Louisiana and even I want to start talking about 96L again lawd lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L is realy starting to put on a show
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting aquak9:


welcome to the addiction.

No cussin' no name-callin, no firearms.


Thank you. I intend to be the lady my mamma raised me to be. And my bullets got rusty during Katrina, so if I were to try, I would only blow my own foot off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
96L Rainbow



It does seem to be looking better...
Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
that was helpful. Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4736. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:
Repost of TampsSpin a bit ago.



Starting to smell like a duck...

95L getting it together. Thankfully too late to be as much of a problem as it could have been.


Nice sweet circle on the pazz atmo..as seen on da radar thingee
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
Quoting StormW:


Ok...then where was the organized convection for the 12-24 hours the NHC requires?


I know I know

There isn't any lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


funny cuz I just had a similar thunderstorm come through my street here in St Pete in association with that spin off the coast of Tampa

Should that be named too?


Thanks for your comment. I was wondering if someone else saw the spin just offshore of Tampa. It's been raining all day here in SRQ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4733. Patrap
96L Rainbow

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
Repost of TampsSpin a bit ago.



Starting to smell like a duck...

95L getting it together. Thankfully too late to be as much of a problem as it could have been.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


1. A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4730. Patrap
Quoting Topography:


Well, pat, you live over there, and we care about your well-being, that's all.


Thankz..I was referring the monomania over the Observed trends and all.

Itsa kinda weird to say the least.

But not unexpected seems.

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


this area has been being watched closely for days now..so it is alittle different.

clearly 95L has a circulation H101 and at all levels
plus winds to back up atleast a TD classification.

observations from the coast back this up. but this is only my opinion.
Even if it has winds of 100mph it shouldn't be classified as a tropical cyclone because it is attached to a warm front and on satellite imagery it looks like a mess.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
While we've been watching 95L...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4726. Patrap
Quoting aquak9:
double zombie alert, pat?


Yup..I putz myz Helmet ons tue
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
Quoting pilotguy1:


Lot's of wish casting here.


You know what I'm tired of? That term and the term 'downcasting'. People have every single right to state an opinion, bashing it only makes things worse. Now, I'm not saying people are being way out there with systems but I have not seen a single blogger so say far (unless they're on my ignore) that they believe 95L will become a hurricane or something 'wishcastful' like that. Same with people being called 'downcasters', they're just looking at what they see unless they're doing it to disrupt the blog. Its really aggravating to see this again and again the last 4 years. /rant off. I ought to take Pat's offer of a Fresca.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24200
Chief if you have gone crazy let's all go crazy...lets call it Camille!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z surface analysis clearly displays that 95L is attached to a warm front.

Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4721. Patrap


Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
Quoting Topography:
That's one to know, Pat. Saty safe over tehre, plz. You know how Nature can be.


You have got to be kidding me!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4719. aquak9
double zombie alert, pat?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Re-lax folks.

Its only weather.

Geezum,.....


Fresca's all around.


ya better spike it with sumpin'!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
TN then people do not know the full criteria of a tropical system


I just had a downpour associated with the circulation offshore of Tampa with 40mph winds gusts and it felt tropical, should that area be named too?


this area has been being watched closely for days now..so it is alittle different.

clearly 95L has a circulation H101 and at all levels
plus winds to back up atleast a TD classification.

observations from the coast back this up. but this is only my opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:



Oh my, I hope it was not Them darn fire ants! Had a bout with them last night :)
No, that was black ants, no fire ants here (yes, I do live in SE LA, and, no, I don't know why I don't have fire ants).

This was the whole ants moving into my blower motor thing. AC-on, ant shower.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RecordSeason:
4685:

None of the radars in the area detect winds in excess of about 26kts, so it cannot possibly be a TS.

It may just barely, barely be a TD, but that seems unlikely and doesn't really matter anyway.


Radar is too far away to give accurate wind readings
Member Since: 24 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
ok...a plate of leftover ribs and a cold adult beverage...now maybe I'll be able to read longitudal increments!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just pure amazing how the tropics change on a dime. I pretty much wrote both systems off and now look. 96L looking better by the minute.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4712. Patrap
Re-lax folks.

Its only weather.

Geezum,.....


Fresca's all around.

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L exiting burst of organization.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
However you look at it, 95L can't be classified as a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Totally agree with that last post Storm. Just because a mass of clouds is in the GOMEX, doesn't mean it's tropical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4706. ncstorm
Quoting Hurricanes101:


funny cuz I just had a similar thunderstorm come through my street here in St Pete in association with that spin off the coast of Tampa

Should that be named too?


LOL..you would think they are about to lose power and have to evacuate..I even read somewhere someone ask did they put up shutters?? Good Lord people..its just a THUNDERSTORM!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4705. Patrap
Double walking Zombie alert detected.

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
Quoting Patrap:


WaS just a feeder squall..

Dead calm now.

LOL

Hey Pat! Are we ever gonna catch a break from this rain...the rain band that just left you is heading my way....I'm mildewing! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4703. ssmate
Quoting IKE:



Hmmm.
sigh.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4701. aquak9
zombie alert
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 4751 - 4701

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
46 ° F
Ciel dégagé