Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Convection is consolidating nicely with 96L, and towards the east with time, which is bad news for the north gulf coast if the center tends to stay to the northeast with the convection and head more towards the northeast tip of the Yucatan or even the Yucatan channel.

Quoting Tazmanian:
dr m is on Vacation and look 96L takes off

How many times has this happened? I remember once for a 'cane a few years ago. Anyone else remember how many times he's been gone and we've had a significant (TS or more) system develop?

Quoting Patrap:


IMpressive Kman..

..your East of her right?

I am. On the SW end of Grand Cayman about 500 feet from the sea.

96L is certainly organizing faster than Alex did. Pressures didn't start dropping several days after 93L was declared, NHC says pressures are already dropping.

btwntx08 go look at ike posting

Even so Levi, if it heads towards the channel itself.

See a ship report 37 mph at 40 degrees 17.8n 82w.

Quoting CanesfanatUT:


How many times has this happened? I remember once for a 'cane a few years ago. Anyone else remember how many times he's been gone and we've had a significant (TS or more) system develop?

yup and look at it go now

I don't see 95L becoming much with the dry air and moving west just behind the shear. Maybe when it nears Texas coast tomorow it might find moist air and shear relaxing, but very short window and small system.

Quoting kmanislander:


yep. Just had 43 mph at my home.

Wow - this mug gettin' her act together!

Little bit breezy in the Caymans.....

Cam takes a minute to load

Quoting TexasHurricane:


what is the floater? What does that mean?

a floater is when they focus and track ... one of the satellites on a particular invest, storm or hurricane. It gives a bit more definition to the satellite image.

Think we'll have a TD or named storm in the Caribbean by Tuesday?

Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Are we now in upward motion? MJO

We are upward



However,
We are soon at the stage of the season where the MJO will not matter....the environment is just favorable for convective development.

Invests w/ some models...

Quoting kuppenskup:
Think we'll have a TD or named storm in the Caribbean by Tuesday?

i say even sooner the way 96L is going

Quoting CybrTeddy:
See new bloggers, THIS is what happens when the Doc takes a vacation.

GOES-E Satellite loop of Caribbean
Link

Yes, I remember on Tuesday during the radio show Dr. Masters said, "I'm going to be gone for a week," the blog freaked out.

New bloggers, the joke is that whenever Dr. Masters goes on vacation, the tropics heat up.

Quoting kmanislander:


I am. On the SW end of Grand Cayman about 500 feet from the sea.

How much rain do the cayman islands get? I mean as far as in an average year?

I just wonder because the islands appear too small to generate diurnal deep thunderstorm formation, which accounts for a very large amount of the rainfall in the mainlands of tropical rain forests.

Quoting Weather456:


Yea Levi....we are going to get some showers from this one!

But it has favorable conditions ahead so it needs to be watch.

They are taking off one behind the other.

What about the lack of Upper Level Lows and what about the TUTT any differences you see so far from past seasons?

Levi and 456, if 95L and 96L and wave just east of Antilles is enough,a interesting wave just emerged West Africa today.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi and 456, if 95L and 96L and wave just east of Antilles is enough,a interesting wave just emerged West Africa today.

can we PLZ for get about 95L

Back in a while

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Savannah, Grand Cayman.

Wow! 30-35 mph already?

Some nice heavy squalls coming through now here on the west side(maybe reaching between-35-40mph)....intermittent moderate-light rain.

Levi are you going to have a video today? I always look forward to your videos very helpful and keep me up to date. Thank You

Going to go see if I can get enough fireworks to create enough heat and rotation over the local lake and try to produce my own little hurricane. Everyone have a good 4th.

Question for the experts, If 96L does develop in the Carribean what effect will it have on the new wave entering the Carribean now? Will it stir the water up enough to keep it from strengthening too much? Just curious.

12Z ECMWF@ 96 hours....

lol

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi and 456, if 95L and 96L and wave just east of Antilles is enough,a interesting wave just emerged West Africa today.

Yeah that's the one I was speaking about. This looks like the most impressive system to come off Africa since the origins of Alex

Wouldn't surprise if this upgraded straight TS Bonnie before morning, 96L is under going explosive development in my opinion.

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYBODY!!! :) :) :) From Rainy Clearwater FL. Actually it has stopped for the time being, lol. Have Fun today everyone.

Quoting sporteguy03:


What about the lack of Upper Level Lows and what about the TUTT any differences you see so far from past seasons?

Our TUTT has been in place but to the advantage of storms in the W Caribbean as in my June outlook. What I dont see is much TUTT cells breaking off and heading SW. One reason as I pointed out in my July outlook is that we have more anticyclonic flow rather than cyclonic flow developing in the upper levels across the Atlantic and this is key to La Nina years.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Wouldn't surprise if this upgraded straight TS Bonnie before morning, 96L is under going explosive development in my opinion.

me too

we are sure see xplosive development going on here

Consolidation of convection continues to occur along with colder cloud tops along the system. Before long 96L is going to be a sphere, lol.

Quoting Jedkins01:



How much rain do the cayman islands get? I mean as far as in an average year?

I just wonder because the islands appear too small to generate diurnal deep thunderstorm formation, which accounts for a very large amount of the rainfall in the mainlands of tropical rain forests.

Quite a lot between June and December from Tropical waves and the usual summer time afternoon showers. Grand Cayman gets more rain than our two sister islands because we have a very green swampy interior that causes afternoon showers from day time heating and evaporation. June alone averages 7 inches.

I don't have the annual figure to hand but some days we can get several inches during the hurricane season from TWaves.

We rely heavily on rainfall from cold fronts and tropical waves. During summer months, day time heating causes some convective activity which begins on the eastern side, and forms a line of clouds. This gives central George Town and areas near by more consistent rainfall. Eastern and Western districts tend to be a bit drier.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Consolidation of convection continues to occur along with colder cloud tops along the system. Before long 96L is going to be a sphere, lol.

be for long i see 96L be comeing a TD or TS hey do i see a eye?

Another good sized squall just came to shore on Grand Cayman.

Quoting TXCaneCrasher:
Question for the experts, If 96L does develop in the Carribean what effect will it have on the new wave entering the Carribean now? Will it stir the water up enough to keep it from strengthening too much? Just curious.

Good question, it depends on how much heat 96L uses. if you notice 96L is trapped in fast steering flow so I suspect it would not remain in the NW Caribbean for long. I think there is enough heat to support a third system, though it will tend to be weaker.

Looks like 95l is trying to steal first place on smallest storm ever dam forgot his name.

Am I correct in saying that, it looks like 96l is wrapping itself up rather nicely?

Quoting StormW:


And the upward motion pulse will be reluctant to leave due to all the warmth in the Atlantic.

Kinda like me in the jacuzzi with a Seven and 7