Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting louisianaboy444:


Your just so star struck with 96L that you can't think of anything else lol...Anything aimed at my state ima keep an eye...it may not be worthy of two eyes on it but one eye at least....them things can be sneaky lol

Quoting Dirtleg:
Anyone else notice the new spin?? Straight west of Orlando, offshore about 100 miles maybe?

Quoting stormpetrol:
Well just put my hurricane shutters to the east end of my house, nearly half done, I'll leave the rest for later, at least their on the side of the high winds, don't want to take any chances.

Quoting StormW:
Models shifted right.

Quoting StormW:
Models shifted right.

Quoting TexasHurricane:


how far right?

Quoting StormW:
Models shifted right.

Quoting MrstormX:
95L could be a depression shortly if the nhc sees enough breakaway from the front.

Quoting Patrap:
100 Bucks says BP gets caught with their pants around their ankles come Tuesday Morn..

Quoting atmoaggie:
A LOT of dry air.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Think ima have to go with BAMM or BAMS. I have no clue what BAMD is doing!

Quoting CybrTeddy:
My update posted on here.
My discussion mostly dominates 4 area's of interest, and they will be listed from least threat to greatest threat on this blog.


95L likely to not amount to nothing much

A non-tropical low is situated about 100 miles south of Louisiana. The system is very small and very weak, with cloud tops only in the -50C range which is very warm. I expect that 95L will not amount to much more than some rain for Louisiana. 95L should continue a WNW-NW direction in the next day or so before finally making landfall. No models develop 95L, increasing the unlikelihood that it amounts to much. The NHC current gives 95L a LOW 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours.


(Most recent satellite image of 95L)

Bahamas disturbance a small threat to develop

My second discussion is on a area of convection to the east of Florida situated not to far off the Bahamas. Some of the models have been developing a trough split off Florida and developing it into at least a sub-tropical depression off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states. The system currently is very disorganized, with no organization to speak of what so ever but does has a chance as it gradually moves N-NE the next couple of days. I give this disturbance a 20% chance of development in the next couple of days.

Lesser Antilles disturbance a threat

A Highly amplified wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean. This wave current features a sharp V-shaped axis to it, a common structure of a very powerful wave and it can be seen also on ASCAT that it is very formidable. No models develop the Lesser Antilles disturbances at this time, however water temperatures are very warm ahead of this system and I suspect that this system once it goes farther NW (this system might actually enter the Bahamas, so we'll watch it or it might go into the Western Caribbean) that this could become either Bonnie or Colin. Its defiantly a wave we need to watch even though there is very little if no model support to support the system. I current give the Lesser Antilles disturbance a 30% chance of development.


96L: The one to watch

A strong wave in the Western Caribbean is a large threat to develop over the next couple of days called Invest 96L. 96L is a very large wave and reminds me currently a lot of the invest that became Hurricane Alex, 93L. The wave currently has strong model support from the ECMWF, which is very reliable and was dead on will all of 2009's systems and with even more so with Alex in terms of genesis and track was spot on through its entire lifetime. The most recent run of the ECMWF and the CMC show the possibility that 96L will go more north than Alex did, and might even thread the Yucatan Channel which would be very bad. The ridge however would force 96L back west towards Texas. It is however very earlier to speculate on track as the situation unfolds over the next couple of days. The wave currently is organizing quicker than 93L did as surface pressures are already falling and vort is stronger at the 850 mb level than through most of 93L's time. I currently give 96L a 50-60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone the next couple days. The NHC gives it a MEDIUM 30% chance of development over the next 48 hours.



The tropics are waking up gang!

CybrTed

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Think ima have to go with BAMM or BAMS. I have no clue what BAMD is doing!

Quoting TerraNova:


Lol BAMD is meant for strong deep systems, i.e. major hurricanes, BAMM (Beta Advection Medium) is probably a more viable track for this system.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
BAMD is for deep systems. I'm going with the BAMM for the time being.

Out for now, be back later....

Quoting MrstormX:
95L could be a depression shortly if the nhc sees enough breakaway from the front.

Quoting Tazmanian:
from the look at the new mode runs 96L is going right overe BP and the pizza oil

Quoting rarepearldesign:
Let's hope it's not CLP5, that would suck real bad for the oil spill would it not?

Quoting Tazmanian:
from the look at the new mode runs 96L is going right overe BP and the pizza oil

Quoting IKE:


The oil-volcano is at least 200 miles NNW of where those runs are.

Quoting Stormchaser2007: