A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3851. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Looks like HPC finally got the memo.....
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO BE CONTAMINATED BY SPURIOUS CIRCULATIONS OF TROPICAL ORIGIN.


Not saying the CMC is out-to-lunch on 96L, but the above was posted early this morning^^^
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Quoting Patrap:
Ya'll lost 96L this morning ?


Sure did, somewhere between Honduras and the Yucatan Straights.....were still looking for it though....LOL
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3849. bappit
Quoting Drakoen:
Look at this and there is no question that 96L is located in the Yucatan Channel


I love that graphic. Shows how the whole thing is moving.
Member Since: 18 mai 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5960
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so 96L has a twin one near yucatan and the other near Honduras I think the real/main one is the one near Honduras


If, indeed, there are two lows developing in close proximity to each other, does this close proximity impede development of both lows significantly or rather is the effect negligible?
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good 96L dont do anything
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Quoting Patrap:
A brief look at Climatology 101


95L current




Hurricane Cindy 5 years ago tonight



I don't recall Cindy being subtropical. You're comparing apples to cranberries.

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3845. Drakoen
Quoting Abacosurf:


Also shows that the storm in the eastern carib. will not be picked up by the trough IMO.

Another western carib storm by the end of the week???


Most of the vorticity associated with that wave is north of the Caribbean. Upper level winds are not favorable for development.
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3844. IKE
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ECMWF still develops 96L and another system a few days later. ECMWF doesn't develop 96L until its in the Gulf and keeps it a fairly weak system. Hits Texas.

CMC makes 96L a fairly potent system hitting Texas

GFDL doesn't develop 96L at all.

GFS doesn't not develop 96L.

HWRF develops 96L, keeps it very weak.

NOGAPS doesn't develop 96L
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
3841. emguy
Definately wouldn't forget 96L. Looks like this one has a good shot at development. It just needs time to get it's act together. Typical slow evolution for down in that neck of the woods at this time of year. Been interesting weather throughout the western half of the basin last 24 hours.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Look at this and there is no question that 96L is located in the Yucatan Channel



Also shows that the storm in the eastern carib. will not be picked up by the trough IMO.

Another western carib storm by the end of the week???
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You must live in Houston or the area! Last week was something else!
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3838. Patrap
Ya'll lost 96L this morning ?
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Good afternoon all!
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Quoting Drakoen:
Look at this and there is no question that 96L is located in the Yucatan Channel


Nice Drak.
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Quoting DauphinNotDolphin:
Yep, Massacre Island, Isle Dauphine, BP's new headquarters...that's us :)


Are you on Dauphin Island?
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Quoting DauphinNotDolphin:
Yep, Massacre Island, Isle Dauphine, BP's new headquarters...that's us :)


Yep, I'm in Mobile but we've owned property on the Island for decades. Spent plenty of time there, but not much since the leak. Too many contractors and noisy activity.
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3833. Drakoen
Look at this and there is no question that 96L is located in the Yucatan Channel

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96L is RIP? It seems that way. Doesn't have time to develope into anything of major concern.
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3831. emguy
95L

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3830. Patrap
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Yep, Massacre Island, Isle Dauphine, BP's new headquarters...that's us :)
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3828. Patrap
Forget 96L ?
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
3826. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
That's what you get for acting like a teenager and staying up till the weee hour in the morn' and then sneaking off to bed when the adults wake up for their morning coffee. You left right as I signed on.


As per da plan maybe?

LOL
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
3825. emguy
Noticing that the north and northwest side of 95L remains poorly organized this afternoon. That side of the vorticity just refuses to pull into the low based on the visible loops (Not the clouds continue to move around and away instead of in). Still appears to be a "quasi" frontal low by all appearances and tropical development is definately not expected here. Some good thunderstorms will come to Louisiana from this little low pressure system though.

Down there in the Caribbean, 96L seems to be going through one of those typical slow evolutions we see with western caribbean development. 40% on the outlook a good call. If this is going to develop, the one thing it needs more than anything else is time.
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Last week I was asking for rain... Got over 10 inches from Alex.

Now if we get any rain from 95L or 96L we would be in a bad way around here.

I won't ask for anything again... except maybe this baby #4 to be a girl.. since I have 3 boys.. but that is too much to ask ;)
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Quoting Patrap:



I was er, resting.


Seems we cant "Forget 95L"


95L is the only thing I'm really paying attention to right now.
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Link

That is one stubarn stalled front.
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Hey Pat, how are things uptown? Water getting a little higher than I want to see down here.
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Quoting Patrap:



I was er, resting.


Seems we cant "Forget 95L"
That's what you get for acting like a teenager and staying up till the weee hour in the morn' and then sneaking off to bed when the adults wake up for their morning coffee. You left right as I signed on.
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3819. ssmate
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am about to go to bed, Don't be surprised if the 3 circles become 5. Last night it went from 2 to 4 while i was sleeping. Fingers crossed it stays only 3.
Goodnight all.
Have a good nights sleep Aussie.
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3818. Patrap
Quoting sarahjola:
hey patrap- think 95l might give us a little breeze out here in mandeville. its already given us a couple down pours. do you see foresee any severe wx with 95l? did you here the news this morning about the oil getting into the rigoletts? sad situations we are in. Greg taffaro was on the news this morning saying it got into some of the bayous down there. very upsetting:(


Im watching the morning news re broadcast now. And thats not good news atall.

95L is a Bugger,with the Training Storms to be the nuisance I believe
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting DauphinNotDolphin:
12z CMC develops the system to the south, drags it over the Yucatan, then up toward the middle LA coast, with a left hook at the last minute, with landfall on the upper TX coast.

Link


Massacre Island?
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hey patrap- think 95l might give us a little breeze out here in mandeville. its already given us a couple down pours. do you see foresee any severe wx with 95l? did you here the news this morning about the oil getting into the rigoletts? sad situations we are in. Greg taffaro was on the news this morning saying it got into some of the bayous down there. very upsetting:(
Member Since: 10 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
Been getting A LOT of rain the past 3 days over 6 inches.
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so 96L has a twin one near yucatan and the other near Honduras I think the real/main one is the one near Honduras
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3813. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
Well Pat, nice of you to finally join our conversation...LOL good morning.



I was er, resting.


Seems we cant "Forget 95L"
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Well Pat, nice of you to finally join our conversation...LOL good morning.
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pretty cool MLV west of sarasota!!!!
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12z CMC develops the system to the south, drags it over the Yucatan, then up toward the middle LA coast, with a left hook at the last minute, with landfall on the upper TX coast.

Link
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


storm, what are your thoughts on 96L....expect it to develop? where it might go?
This explains it pretty clearly:

INVEST 95L AND 96L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 8:10 A.M. JULY 05 2010
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Taking a break now.
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Quoting angiest:


2.5 feet of motion (mostly horizontal in that area) isn't a whole lot. It is believed by some seismologists that the San Andreas proper north of the border may have up to 30 feet of motion built up in it. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake involved up to 20 feet of movement.


With all due respect, 2.5 feet of motion can knock over a cinderblock wall, throw a refrigerator across the kitchen, explode a 25 gallon fishtank, reduce every single stick of furniture to rubble. Knock the four sides off a six story office building, so that the desks hang out. etc etc. 2.5 feet can do a lot more damage that it would seem. It depends on speed, frequency, direction, duration, etc. God help the residents if the Big One ever moves more than that.

However, me hubby moved us post quake from L.A. to Northern Florida, so I'm not sure we didn't go from the frying pan into the fire! LOL!!!
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think 95L looks alot like cindy did almost heading in the same direction too.
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Lil furball 95l.
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Quoting StormW:


LOL!


storm, what are your thoughts on 96L....expect it to develop? where it might go?
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3802. Patrap
Lah..,la,la
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
3801. Patrap
..Please.

Carry on
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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