Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

WOW yellow, yellow, yellow, orange

NHC notes there is not closed surface circulation with 96L at this time

Quoting Weather456:
Nice structure

This could very well become a tropical depression tomorrow.

Quoting AllStar17:
4 CIRCLES!

looks like August

hey doc come back

Quoting AllStar17:
EPAC has gone dead silent.

That is interesting to note as when the EPAC goes quiet we will find elevated activity for the rest of the season in the Atlantic as climatology warms...

Good call 456 and others!

Quoting SiestaCpl:


Not right mind here..or left mind...just and Indian..and when they crawl into the wrong place best to move them out in a friendly way and wish them well....besides they don't bit much...

Black snakes are awesome! They eat pests, and are beautiful. I haven't seen the one that lives in the vines outside my home office this year, wondering if the hawk in my avatar got him.

Quoting Weather456:
Nice structure

Looks to be around 16.9N 82W based on that

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I have never seen 4 circles. Wow. LOL!

I guess you weren't here for years such as 2005 and 2008, and well, pretty much any year other than 09 and 06. lol

what is the time frame for 96l to get into the gulf of mexico

Quoting Drakoen:
NHC notes there is not closed surface circulation with 96L at this time

Yeah I saw that, it's probably the only reason why it's not at code red/TD status yet.

I see they up'd 96L to 50% chance of developing...

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I guess you weren't here for years such as 2005 and 2008, and well, pretty much any year other than 09 and 06. lol

I wasn't. LOL.

looks like will see 97L 98L

2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Who in the heck opened up the tropical wave door? I'm going on vacation next week, this is not acceptable!

The circles reflect the image below from this morning's update

Wv

Oh man... Here comes 95L, 96L, 97L, 98L. LOL, I told ya' this mornin'.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
WOW yellow, yellow, yellow, orange

what? I only see 2 circles. Yellow and orange.

hmmm i dont think we where going too see 4

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART


Looks like they upped up 96L to 50%, just as I suspected. They also upped 95L to 20%.

96L working the swirl at the Mid Levels.
the surface will follow suit next 12most likely.

WABC reporting Terminal 1 at JFK evacuated due to "a threat of some kind". Link

Quoting Weather456:
Nice structure

Perhaps the surface level close low isn't so very far away..10 minutes I'd guess..

Quoting TexasHurricane:


what? I only see 2 circles. Yellow and orange.

It will take a couple minutes for them to come out, wait until 8:30ish.

show me a four circles i only seen 2 orange and yellow

97L likely soon with the Antilles wave. Maybe 98L for the Bahamas disturbance.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wasn't. LOL.

lol, well still, I haven't seen 4 at once in JULY. o_o

Quoting StormW:


Alex was blocked by a mid level ridge, not upper...and regardless of what the NHC has, it's not a wave...it's the same monsoonal, Typhoon type development.

So the first point sounds like a semantic issue. The second one is more interesting. What is supplying the vorticity for 96L? It seems a lot different from Alex in that respect. With Alex it took a long time for vorticity to develop. This one seems to have it ready made--as by a wave moving through the area.

Quoting Tazmanian:



JFV did it

It had to be him or Stormtop

Quoting futuremet:


Right on the money!

50% and rising..well said!

Graphics are lagging text.

Good Evening all.
A rainy one here today, humidity between high 80's and 100% with constant rain (not heavy).
Wind generally calm, and pressure now 1011.
Would not be surprised to see 97L east of the Islands tomorrow morning, tracking NW south of the high .

96L looking very impressive...

Plenty of stuff setting up in the Caribbean, Antilles, and around 95L.
We got busy, fast.

Happy July 4th!

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


lol, well still, I haven't seen 4 at once in JULY. o_o

There ya' go. Lol.

They started the Antilles wave at 20%

Quoting TexasHurricane:


what? I only see 2 circles. Yellow and orange.

The actual physical circles aren't updated on the map yet. But if you read the outlook you'll see four areas of interest. The two new ones are at 10% and 20%.

Looks like it's gonna be "a hell of a year".

Quoting Torgen:


Black snakes are awesome! They eat pests, and are beautiful. I haven't seen the one that lives in the vines outside my home office this year, wondering if the hawk in my avatar got him.

hehehe..well it wasn't me even if my Shawnee family name a birth was Redhawk...need them to keep my garden free of unwanteds...

Its July 4 right? So 4 circles to celebrate.

BTW, happy independence to you guys in the US of A.

Quoting helove2trac:
show me a four circles i only seen 2 orange and yellow

LOL!!!

Here is 4 circles i posted on my site....on 7-1-10

See where they are at now.....

I watch the systems,,and area's,

Not the circles.

They just circles.

Quoting LADobeLady:
Who in the heck opened up the tropical wave door? I'm going on vacation next week, this is not acceptable!

Me too. To the western tip of Galveston island. Grrrr

so is it %20 now that we see 97L?