Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010 +2
Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...
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2001. Tazmanian 23:46 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
so is it %20 now that we see 97L?
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111311
2002. MiamiHurricanes09 23:46 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting Weather456:
Its July 4 right? So 4 circles to celebrate.

BTW, happy independence to you guys in the US of A.
Thanks. LOL. I hope they don't so the same thing on Christmas.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
2003. Drakoen 23:47 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
I watch the systems,,and area's,

Not the circles.

They just circles.


Yup
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
2004. weather42009 23:47 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Have a feeling W456 doomed us all with his July outlook.
2005. SiestaCpl 23:47 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting Patrap:


hmmm maybe trying to take advantage of the window of opportunity you mentioned 'eh?
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326
2006. srada 23:47 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
I hope everyone is having a great fourth of july!! about to head off to fireworks but wanted to post that I believe these two areas will affect the conus..96L looks like another Alex heading into Mexico..

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: 17 août 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
2007. hydrus 23:47 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting SiestaCpl:


That is interesting to note as when the EPAC goes quiet we will find elevated activity for the rest of the season in the Atlantic as climatology warms...
Speaking of a quiet East Pacific. The West Pacific is also tranquil for this time of year.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238
2008. WxLogic 23:47 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:


Looks to be around 16.9N 82W based on that


Jeje... close.
Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4666
2009. Patrap 23:48 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Freedom,Liberty,Justice,Truth and Brotherhood are all good things to celebrate Worldwide today.


Thank you for the well wishes to America.



Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
2010. ackee 23:48 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
WoW blog should come alive we have soon to be BONNIE or TD#2 may be two invest 97L and 98L
Member Since: 15 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194
2011. CanesfanatUT 23:48 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Well - here we go, eh? 4 areas, dang.

I'm off to Iwo Jima to see the DC fireworks tonight! Can't wait - my first 4th here in VA. I'll check up on these systems before I go to bed.
Later.
Member Since: 3 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 454
2012. TampaSpin 23:48 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
4 Circles will be popping up from NHC very shortly from there 8pm update.....
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
2013. CanesfanatUT 23:48 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting weather42009:
Have a feeling W456 doomed us all with his July outlook.


Not a chance - it's Masters on vacation that hath doomed us....
Member Since: 3 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 454
2014. BahaHurican 23:48 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
BBL.... gone 2 look for some ice cream for a cake mom is taking out of the oven... mmmmm....
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588
2015. Kristina40 23:49 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting Torgen:


Black snakes are awesome! They eat pests, and are beautiful. I haven't seen the one that lives in the vines outside my home office this year, wondering if the hawk in my avatar got him.


Is that a Red Shoulder Hawk? He looks almost identical to one that lives in the woods next to our house. I have a whole family of Black Racers that lives under my driveway, very cool snakes.
Member Since: 27 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
2016. tropicfreak 23:49 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    


They may mention 4 areas of concern on the TWO, but there aren't 4 circles on the map.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566
2017. TexasGulf 23:49 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
I will start preparing for a Cat-2 hurricane in N.E. Houston for next weekend. I believe 96L is organizing quickly with only favorable conditions in it's path for development.

We got a lot of good rain out of Alex. Nice, slow steady soaking rains that we really needed. 96L is projected to move over the Western Gulf, with relatively low wind shear, high SST's and a trough that will pull it Northward. This time, I think it's Houston and S.E. Texas's turn in the barrel.
Member Since: 28 avril 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 354
2018. MiamiHurricanes09 23:49 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting tropicfreak:


They may mention 4 areas of concern on the TWO, but there aren't 4 circles on the map.
Wait a while and you'll get the circles.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
2019. Patrap 23:50 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting SiestaCpl:


hmmm maybe trying to take advantage of the window of opportunity you mentioned 'eh?


95L was nuther 18-20 to da coast,then inland thru the thickest warmest marsh.


Stay Tuned.

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
2020. Inactivity 23:50 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:
4 Circles will be popping up from NHC very shortly from there 8pm update.....


Unbelivible.
Member Since: 23 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
2021. TexasHurricane 23:50 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:
4 Circles will be popping up from NHC very shortly from there 8pm update.....


Are we guessing that there will be 4 circles are have we heard something stating that? just curious...
Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
2022. helove2trac 23:50 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
thanks tampa your the greatest
2023. TampaSpin 23:50 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
I only have 4 AOI setup to monitor on my site....I BE HECK IF I MAKE ROOM FOR 5!!
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
2024. Kaydalenascar 23:51 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Okay the four circles are up now.
Member Since: 27 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
2025. fsumet 23:51 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting TexasGulf:
I will start preparing for a Cat-2 hurricane in N.E. Houston for next weekend. I believe 96L is organizing quickly with only favorable conditions in it's path for development.

We got a lot of good rain out of Alex. Nice, slow steady soaking rains that we really needed. 96L is projected to move over the Western Gulf, with relatively low wind shear, high SST's and a trough that will pull it Northward. This time, I think it's Houston and S.E. Texas's turn in the barrel.


What trough? High pressure may be pushing it to the west southwest as it's making landfall.
Member Since: 23 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 159
2026. leo305 23:51 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
we have 97L with 20%
and 95L with 20%
96L with 50%
and an AOI with 10%

yes we have 97L
Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752
2027. Inactivity 23:51 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
95L up to 20% in the TWO.
Member Since: 23 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
2028. RuBRNded 23:51 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
circles updated 4
Member Since: 29 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
2029. Tazmanian 23:51 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111311
2030. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:51 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
INV/96/L
MARK
16.9N/81.1


INV/95/L
MARK
27.9N/90.4W


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
15.6N/59.9W


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
XXN/XXW
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40371
2031. InTheCone 23:51 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Soggy 4th here in WPB, FL...

Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
2032. helove2trac 23:52 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    

i want some cake
2033. JRRP 23:52 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting Weather456:
Its July 4 right? So 4 circles to celebrate.

BTW, happy independence to you guys in the US of A.

lol
Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4302
2034. Claudette1234 23:52 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
4 circles lol

NHC

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
NNNN
Member Since: 21 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
2035. SiestaCpl 23:52 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting Weather456:
Its July 4 right? So 4 circles to celebrate.

BTW, happy independence to you guys in the US of A.


George Washington surrendered to my family on July 4th 1753 -Battle called "Fort Necessity" and then again on July 4th 1754 - Battle called "Braddocks defeat"...and still my Shawnee ancestors fought IN the Revolutionary army...never did trust the Brits..LOL
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326
2036. MiamiHurricanes09 23:52 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting leo305:
we have 97L with 20%
and 95L with 20%
96L with 50%
and an AOI with 10%

yes we have 97L
Um...No we don't have 97L.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
2037. Drakoen 23:52 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting tropicfreak:


They may mention 4 areas of concern on the TWO, but there aren't 4 circles on the map.


Look at your map again
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
2038. earthlydragonfly 23:52 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting Tazmanian:
Link


Wow... The atlantic has got polka dots
Member Since: 1 juillet 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1649
2039. Patrap 23:52 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
..We're gonna need a Bigger Blog..

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
2040. tropicfreak 23:52 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    


Here we go. WOW!! Looks like August! i guess there are more fireworks to be viewed than the real ones that everybody is seeing tonight.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566
2041. RitaEvac 23:53 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
96L going to mexico people quit wishcasting
2042. SiestaCpl 23:53 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting hydrus:
Speaking of a quiet East Pacific. The West Pacific is also tranquil for this time of year.


..interesting...
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326
2043. TexasHurricane 23:53 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
nevermind...I see the 4 circles...WOW!
Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
2044. Hurricanes101 23:53 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting leo305:
we have 97L with 20%
and 95L with 20%
96L with 50%
and an AOI with 10%

yes we have 97L


there is no 97L yet
Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902
2045. TampaSpin 23:53 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    


Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
2046. xcool 23:53 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
wowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww get busy
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501
2047. Patrap 23:53 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
2048. MiamiHurricanes09 23:53 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Ahhhh! Too many circles!

Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
2049. HurricaneSwirl 23:54 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thanks. LOL. I hope they don't so the same thing on Christmas.


LOL! 25 circles, of all different colors, yellow, orange, red, purple, blue, magenta, scarlet, cinnabar XD
Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2050. Bordonaro 23:54 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
Quoting TexasHurricane:
nevermind...I see the 4 circles...WOW!

They had to break open another box of Crayola's & get another yellow crayon out!!
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2051. xcool 23:54 GMT le 04 juillet 2010    
97 come soon
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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